Donald Trump is doing it again. He’s winning.
Not only is he lightyears ahead of his Republican Party rivals in the 2024 GOP Presidential Primary, but Trump is also now starting to take the lead over his likely Democratic Party foe, President Joe Biden, in two key swing states. This was precisely how the 2016 Presidential Election played out. ‘
Whereas in 2020, then-President Trump had a record that was mixed at best, as well as a deeply unpopular public persona, and Biden had been out of office for four years, today it is Trump who has been out of office for four years and Biden with a more relevant record.
Under Biden, the economy has turgidly slid from one terrible reality to the next. Contrary to what the purportedly smart people in the nation’s capital and on Wall Street believe, most Americans do not feel that the economy has gotten better.
What’s more, the cost of goods for most Americans—notably food and fuel—is through the roof. As a result of Biden’s epic spending spree, inflation remained high prompting interest rates to remain at highs not seen in 20 years.
Meanwhile, Biden’s shambolic foreign policy has led America and the world to a very dark place where serious people are having serious public discussions about the prospects of a nuclear, third world war. Biden’s feckless foreign policy has also needlessly exacerbated the aforementioned food and fuel price crises that most Americans are enduring.
Americans Forget the Trump Years
Whatever happened during the Trump Administration is down the memory hole because the political, social, and economic wounds of those four chaotic years are in the rearview mirror whereas Americans are currently living through the disruptions and failures of the Biden Administration.
The horrors of COVID-19 and the unmitigated failure that was the Trump Administration’s response to that pandemic have been forgotten. It’s why Trump’s main Republican Party primary opponent, Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis, has struggled to remain in competition with the forty-fifth president. Most Americans have simply forgotten the horrors of the pandemic and the subsequent disaster that was President Trump’s response to the novel coronavirus from Wuhan, China, that afflicted the world almost four years ago.
What’s more, most voters have memory-holed the highly successful policies that Governor DeSantis implemented despite Trump’s draconian, Dr. Anthony Fauci-led, anti-COVID policies during the pandemic.
All these trends work in Trump’s favor rather than any of his opponents’ favor. And for all the obsession about what national polls of independent or minority voters are showing, the truly important data points to follow are what the state polls are showing.
Swing States Matter More
That’s why a deeper analysis of what swing state voters are saying about a potential Biden-Trump rematch are key. Right now, the advantages are leaning toward Trump.
There doesn’t appear much that the Biden Campaign can do at this point to correct this imbalance.
Of course, it’s still early in the campaign, and we’ve yet to see how early Republican primary states, such as Iowa and New Hampshire, will vote. I still think that DeSantis can win Iowa and Nikki Haley can win New Hampshire, leaving the truly important early state as South Carolina, where DeSantis, Trump, and Haley will all make their final showdown in the contentious primary.
How Will This End?
It also remains to be seen how Trump’s incredible amount of legal woes will harm his reelection bid. Admittedly, the legal problems that Trump is facing appear to be empowering his bid for the presidency rather than stalling it. Though, that too, could change suddenly. Nevertheless, Trump is currently the leading GOP candidate and Biden is the only real Democratic Party candidate.
Thus, the polls about the swing states in a General Election will matter far more in helping to understand how the election will likely break. Just as in 2016, Trump has the advantages in these critical swing states.
A 19FortyFive Senior Editor and an energy analyst at the The-Pipeline, Brandon J. Weichert is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, as well as at the Asia Times. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower (Republic Book Publishers), Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life (Encounter Books), and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy (July 23). Weichert occasionally serves as a Subject Matter Expert for various organizations, including the Department of Defense.
