Abortion rights, gun control, infrastructure, support for Israel and Ukraine, and even the border crisis are all issues that voters will consider next year when they cast their ballot for president – yet, once again as James Carville pointed out 21 years ago, it’s the economy, stupid.
That explains why voters in seven key battleground states could determine whether President Joe Biden serves a second term.
Decision intelligence company Morning Consult, on behalf of Bloomberg News, conducted a study in the top seven 2024 political swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – and found that Biden is trailing former President Donald Trump by four percentage points on a ballot that includes both of the candidates as well as a Libertarian candidate, a Green Party candidate, and a No Labels candidate.
Yet, even in a forced head-to-head between Biden and Trump, the former president continues to lead the current commander-in-chief by four points overall – and as noted, it is all about the economy.
“Swing state voters trust Trump significantly more than Biden on the economy (49% to 35%), with independents holding even less trust in Biden on this key issue (47% to 25%),” Morning Consult explained.
Lack of Trust in Bidenomics
The poll found that the economy was the most important issue heading into the 2024 presidential election, and a majority of voters disapproved of Biden’s economic policies – 65 percent disapproval to 14 percent approval. Moreover, 51 percent of swing-state voters said they felt the national economy had been better under the former president.
Overall, only 26 percent of voters polled said they agreed that “Bidenomics” had been good for the economy, while 49 percent disapproved of the policies. However, there is still just over a year until voters will actually cast their ballots.
“Predictions more than a year out tend to look a little different a year later,” Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz told Axios via a statement. “We’ll win in 2024 by putting our heads down and doing the work, not by fretting about a poll.”
The Lucky Seven
Former president Donald Trump won six of those seven states in 2016 – with only Nevada going for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Trump’s success in smashing the “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin was seen as crucial to his victory.
However, four years later in the 2020 presidential election, the situation was reversed.
The Biden campaign successfully rebuilt the Blue Wall – winning all three states along with Nevada – while he also flipped Arizona and Georgia. North Carolina was the only state Trump won in both elections, but it is increasingly looking more “purple” than deep red.
Trump won the Tar Heel State by just 1.34 percent in 2020 and by 3.66 percent over Hillary Clinton – compared to the more than 12-point advantage that former President W. Bush had when he won the state in 2000 and 2004.
Those seven swing states may favor Trump in a hypothetical rematch with Biden, but by all accounts, it will still be a very close race.
Author Experience and Expertise
A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.