‘Purple States’ Are Favoring Trump While ‘Blue Wall’ is Showing Cracks in Latest Poll – The “Blue Wall” states that helped President Joe Biden defeat former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election could be showing cracks according to a new poll published by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, in partnership with The Telegraph. The polling data found that Biden is just a single point ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania – 43 to 42 percent – while the two current frontrunners for their respective parties’ nomination are currently tied in Michigan with 41 percent each.
The Keystone State had been a key block of the Blue Wall, going for the Democratic candidate in six presidential elections prior to 2016, when Trump secured a surprising win with a margin of just 0.7 percent of the vote. The Great Lake State was also won by Trump in 2016, with an even slimmer margin of just 0.2 percent.
In 2020, Biden won the former by 1.2 percent and the latter by 2.8 percent.
Biden was quick to address how the “Blue Wall” was rebuilt in 2020 and has sought to win union voters as last month, he became the first sitting president to join the picket line when he traveled to Michigan to show his support with United Auto Workers, who are currently on strike against the Big Three automakers.
The Purple States Looking Red Again
In 2020, the once reliably red states of Arizona and Georgia both went for Biden after picking the Republican nominee for most elections in the past few decades. Biden narrowly won Arizona by a margin of 0.3 percent and Georgia by 0.2 percent.
Both the Grand Canyon State and the Peach State are now leaning towards Trump – who is ahead of Biden in the former by five points (44 to 39 percent), and by three points in Georgia (43 to 40 percent).
Trump has seen a surge in Arizona in recent weeks, as an Emerson College Poll from early August found that the former president had 45 percent support to Biden’s 43 percent.
The Sunshine State and Tar Heel State are Reliably Red – Maybe?
The Redfield & Wilton Strategies/Telegraph polling data showed Trump leading Biden by five points in both Florida and North Carolina – states he won in 2016 and again in 2020.
Though Florida may be reliably red heading into 2024, a lot could still depend on whether Trump has the support of Governor Ron DeSantis – and there is no guarantee that DeSantis would throw his endorsement towards the former president given the open hostility between the two men.
North Carolina last went Democratic in 2008, when Barack Obama defeated John McCain by just 0.32 percent. Prior to that the state last was won by a Democrat in 1976 when Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford. Trump won the state by 1.34 percent in 2020 and by 3.66 percent over Hillary Clinton.
By contrast, George W. Bush won the Tar Heel State by more than 12 points in both 2000 and 2004, and even as Bill Clinton infamously was able to win many traditionally Republican states in the south, he lost North Carolina in both 1992 and 1996.
Yet, as was shown by Obama’s win in 2008, the narrowing support for the GOP candidates, it is increasingly looking more purple than deep red. That is true as North Carolina’s major cities grow. Thus Trump, and arguably any Republican candidate, may need to campaign heavily in the state, and can’t take it for granted – as Clinton did with Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016.
Author Experience and Expertise
A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.