A new set of New York Times/Siena College polls offered the Biden administration some devastating public feedback. The polls found that not only was Biden trailing Trump in key swing states, but voters felt Biden is too old and lacks the mental sharpness to be president. The poll results could indicate trouble brewing for Biden in the 2024 election.
“Four years ago, Joe Biden was the electability candidate,” The New York Times reported, “the broadly appealing, moderate Democrat from Scranton who promised to win the white working-class voters who elected Donald J. Trump. There are few signs of that electoral strength today.”
The new polls held plenty of bad news for Team Biden – especially with respect to the battleground states upon which the 2024 election will hinge. “Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden in five of the six battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency, as widespread discontent with the state ofo the country and growing doubts about [Biden’s] ability to perform his job as president threaten to unravel the diverse coalition that elected him in 2020.”
In sum, Trump enjoyed a 48 percent to 44 percent lead over Biden across the six swing states. Trump led in five of the swing states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada) while Biden carried just one (Wisconsin). Were swing state voters to vote in the 2024 election in a way that was consistent with the current polling, Trump would most assuredly oust Biden from the White House.
Fortunately for Biden, however, the election is still one year away, and plenty can change in 52 weeks – especially given that the current electorate is “disengaged, disaffected and dissatisfied.” Still, Democrats have a potentially daunting task of marketing Biden – a historically unpopular president – for a second term.
“The survey finds that Mr. Biden enters his campaign as a badly weakened candidate, one running without the strengths on personal likeability, temperament and character that were essential to his narrow victories in all six of [the swing states] in 2020,” The New York Times reported. “Long-festering vulnerabilities on his age, economic stewardship, and appeal to young, Black and Hispanic voters have grown severe enough to imperil his re-election chances.”
Joe Biden: Hemorrhaging Support
The poll found that Biden is losing support. Consider a demographic breakdown. The poll found that Biden won white voters under 45 (50% to 45%; +5) in 2020, yet found Biden trailing Trump (50% to 42%; -8) among the same demographic now. The trends were similar among nonwhite voters. In nonwhite voters over 45, Biden went from a +47 margin to a +34 margin, leaving him comfortably in the lead still, but trending in the wrong direction. Among nonwhite voters under 45, however, Biden has absolutely hemorrhaged support, dropping from +39 in 2020 to just +6 today, a 33 point loss.
“Mr. Biden barely leads at all among nonwhite voters under 45, even though the same voters reported backing Mr. Biden by almost 40 points in the last election,” The New York Times reported. “As a result, the candidates are essentially tied among voters 18 to 29, a group that has reliably backed Democrats by a wide margin for two decades.” Similarly, “Mr. Trump has cut Mr. Biden’s lead among nonwhite voters in half.”
Let me repeat that because it bears repeating: President Biden is at risk of losing young voters and nonwhite voters to Donald Trump, of all people.
Indeed, Democrats may want to consider an alternative candidate for 2024 – no matter how unorthodox that may be.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor and opinion writer at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.