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Smart Bombs: Military, Defense and National Security

Donald Trump Won’t Allow ATACMS to Be Used Against Ukraine

U.S. Soldiers assigned to the 65th Field Artillery Brigade, and soldiers from the Kuwait Land Forces fire their High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (U.S.) and BM-30 Smerch rocket systems (Kuwait) during a joint live-fire exercise, Jan. 8, 2019, near Camp Buehring, Kuwait. The U.S. and Kuwaiti forces train together frequently to maintain a high level of combat readiness and to maintain effective communication between the two forces. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. James Lefty Larimer)
U.S. Soldiers assigned to the 65th Field Artillery Brigade, and soldiers from the Kuwait Land Forces fire their High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (U.S.) and BM-30 Smerch rocket systems (Kuwait) during a joint live-fire exercise, Jan. 8, 2019, near Camp Buehring, Kuwait. The U.S. and Kuwaiti forces train together frequently to maintain a high level of combat readiness and to maintain effective communication between the two forces. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. James Lefty Larimer)

Key Points: The incoming Trump administration is expected to halt the use of ATACMS missiles in Ukraine, opting instead for a peace-focused approach. This shift reflects a broader realignment of U.S. foreign policy under Trump, emphasizing neo-isolationism and reduced military involvement.

-While Biden’s strategy of open-ended support to Ukraine has prolonged the war without decisive results, Trump aims to suspend weapons exports, prioritize peace negotiations, and conduct a thorough review of arms sent to Ukraine.

-This policy shift is likely to face criticism but aligns with Trump’s longstanding promise to end “Endless Wars.”

No More ATACMS Launches in Ukraine Under Donald Trump? 

It always happens in foreign policy and national security in the United States. A new broom sweeps clean. That means when there is a new president, the incoming administration reviews previous policy, and looks for ways to be different. You saw this repeatedly during the Cold War in which each successive president had his own unique spin on the containment strategy against the Soviet Union.

What Is Working and What Is Not?

This will also be the initial process that includes analyzing the war in Ukraine and devising a path forward. What tactics have worked and what hasn’t worked? Why is the war still in a stalemate? What weapons systems have been successful? How much money can be spent? And finally, is the United States running out of munitions?

These questions must be answered. I have done a similar policy review to devise the best practices and future strategy against China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran for a U.S. Senator who was serving on the Senate Armed Services Committee. Sometimes these strategic exercises yield answers and recommendations that are ignored, but the reviews of policy must happen.

Keep Putin from Escalating 

The new Trump national security team will assuredly be working on policy reviews even before the inauguration in January 2025. The war in Ukraine is the first order of business. The latest decision by President Joe Biden has rubbed some defense analysts the wrong way, including those here at the National Security Journal. I’m referring to the decision to use the ATACMS long-range missile system to strike deep into Russia. This has needlessly provoked Vladimir Putin, and it could even lead him to order a test of a tactical nuclear weapon to show the world he is not afraid of doing the worst.

ATACMS Use Has Been a Mistake

The latest missile deployment will not lead to a decisive win, so expect the stalemate to continue into the next year. The use of ATACMS has also hurt the possibility of a peace process. Putin is likely to see that the United States is not serious about ending the war and Volodymyr Zelensky has his hopes for a decisive win and, therefore, will want to fight on.

U.S. Soldiers assigned to the 65th Field Artillery Brigade fire a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) during a joint live-fire exercise with the Kuwait Land Forces, Jan. 8, 2019, near Camp Buehring, Kuwait. The U.S. and Kuwaiti forces train together frequently to maintain a high level of combat readiness and to maintain effective communication between the two forces. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Bill Boecker)

U.S. Soldiers assigned to the 65th Field Artillery Brigade fire a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) during a joint live-fire exercise with the Kuwait Land Forces, Jan. 8, 2019, near Camp Buehring, Kuwait. The U.S. and Kuwaiti forces train together frequently to maintain a high level of combat readiness and to maintain effective communication between the two forces. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Bill Boecker)

Look for Trump to suspend all launches from ATACMS. He will also place a moratorium on new weapons systems sent to Ukraine. These decisions will be criticized by the foreign policy blob in Washington and lamented by the legacy media, plus the decision will be questioned by Democrats on Capitol Hill (and some Republicans). But the ordinary voters who have supported peace in Ukraine and a stop to Endless Wars will be happy.

A New Party Re-alignment in U.S. Foreign Policy?

It is interesting that the parties have seemed to re-align on the question of war and peace and the deployment of weapons and troops. Republicans are becoming more the party of peace and Democrats the party of war on certain issues. It is difficult to predict this though as many Democrats favor more fighting in Ukraine with a cease fire in Israel against Hamas and Hezbollah. Some Republicans prefer the opposite.

Stop the Bloodshed First

But many Republican voters are in favor of stopping Endless Wars and prefer a return to neo-isolationism and a more restrained foreign policy. Neoconservatism, war mongering, and an interventionist national security strategy are less popular with Make America First Again voters. This outlook started when Trump came out against the invasion of Iraq when he first ran for president in 2015 and 2016. So, the Republican Party has shifted its outlook on foreign policy compared to when pre-emption, interventionism, and democracy building was the norm for the party under President George W. Bush.

As for Ukraine, it is time for new ideas. The Biden strategy of open-ended support to Zelensky is not working. The war is still in a stalemate despite America’s best weapons systems exported to Ukraine. ATACMS is one example. However, Abrams tanks, Paladin self-propelled howitzers, Bradey Fighting Vehicles, and Stryker Armored Vehicles – the jewels of the U.S. Army – have all been sent to the sullen Zelensky who often appears ungrateful and unsatisfied with the American generosity.

The new Trump administration wants peace. Trump has promised to end the war and that means negotiations, a weapons export freeze, and an after action review and accountability report on the efficacy of all the arms sent to Ukraine. ATACMS launches will be suspended under Trump.

New presidents change policies and strive to be different than their predecessor. When John F. Kennedy won his election in 1960 he was asked about his hobbies. Kennedy said, “I play tennis, Eisenhower plays golf.” Presidents tend to change their outlook and jettison policies from the new guy. Sometimes this doesn’t work, and it alarms our allies and emboldens our enemies. But definitely expect a different lens to look at American foreign policy in 2025. A new broom will definitely sweep clean.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

Written By

Now serving as 1945s Defense and National Security Editor, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer.

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