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Could Donald Trump’s Mass Deportations Make Inflation Worse?

Donald Trump speaking with supporters at a campaign rally at Veterans Memorial Coliseum at the Arizona State Fairgrounds in Phoenix, Arizona. By Gage Skidmore.
Donald Trump speaking with supporters at a campaign rally at Veterans Memorial Coliseum at the Arizona State Fairgrounds in Phoenix, Arizona. By Gage Skidmore.

Key Points and Summary: President Donald Trump has launched aggressive policies targeting both inflation and immigration, including mass deportation plans. However, these efforts might conflict.

-Experts suggest that reducing the labor force by deporting immigrants could exacerbate inflation by tightening labor markets, particularly in sectors like agriculture and construction.

-A study in the Journal of Labor Economics found that for every 500,000 immigrants removed, 44,000 U.S.-born workers could lose their jobs.

-Critics argue that deportation could raise costs of goods and services rather than lower them.

-Balancing these priorities poses a significant challenge for Trump’s administration as it seeks to stabilize the economy.

Trump’s Immigration and Inflation Policies: A Collision Course?

It might be the two issues Donald Trump talked about most on the campaign trail last year: Inflation, and the need to crack down on immigration, through deportation. 

Now that he has returned to the White House, Trump has already taken steps to address both. But those remedies might end up contradicting each other. 

First Steps

On Trump’s first day in office, he signed a slew of executive orders. On immigration, Trump declared a state of emergency at the Southern border, announced that “entry into the United States of such aliens be suspended until I issue a finding that the invasion at the southern border has ceased,” and took what he called “operational actions to repel the invasion.” 

Trump, per a report in CNN, also immediately shut down CBP One, an app that allows immigrants to apply to come to the United States. 

Trump did not officially put the plans for “mass deportation” into motion on day one, but the Wall Street Journal reported that the first major raids will take place in Chicago, as soon as Tuesday. 

Also on Monday, Trump issued an executive order titled “Delivering Emergency Price Relief for American Families and Defeating the Cost-of-Living Crisis.” 

It explains that: 

“I hereby order the heads of all executive departments and agencies to deliver emergency price relief, consistent with applicable law, to the American people and increase the prosperity of the American worker,” the order said. “This shall include pursuing appropriate actions to:  lower the cost of housing and expand housing supply; eliminate unnecessary administrative expenses and rent-seeking practices that increase healthcare costs; eliminate counterproductive requirements that raise the costs of home appliances; create employment opportunities for American workers, including drawing discouraged workers into the labor force; and eliminate harmful, coercive ‘climate’ policies that increase the costs of food and fuel.”

Fight Inflation and Deportations: Can Both Happen at Once? 

The question is, will cutting down on immigration make inflation worse? 

Some experts have suggested just that. 

“Certainly the economic impacts are going to be felt,”  David J. Bier, the director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, told CNBC this week. “There’s going to be supply chain issues. There’s going to be increases in prices, decreases in services.”

Deportations up, jobs down 

In 2023, the Journal of Labor Economics published a study stating that for every 500,000 immigrants ejected from the labor force, 44,000 U.S.-born workers would lose their jobs. 

“Immigrants, especially unauthorized immigrants, are much more likely to work in the types of jobs that create the goods and services where we’re seeing the prices go up,” Chloe East, one of the authors of that study, told CNBC. 

“Based on what we know from past mass deportation efforts, it seems like goods and services where unauthorized immigrants are super concentrated like construction and agriculture, the prices are likely going to go up as a result of a mass deportation effort rather than down.”

While Stephen Moore, a former Trump adviser, told Politico that inflation and immigration were “the two reasons that Trump won the election,” he acknowledged that mass deportation could lead to worsening inflation. 

President of the United States Donald Trump speaking at the 2017 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland. Image Credit: Gage Skidmore.

President of the United States Donald Trump speaking at the 2017 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland. Image Credit: Gage Skidmore.

“There is no question that having eight to 10 million people deported — many of whom are working — would put a strain on the economy,” Moore told Politico. “You could see an inflationary impact to getting rid of some of these workers — for sure.”

And while deportations are likely to begin soon, there are reasons to believe “mass deportations” would take longer, mostly because the infrastructure isn’t in place for that,  Steven Camarota, director of research for the Center for Immigration Studies, told Politico. 

Author Expertise and Experience: Stephen Silver 

Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.

Written By

Stephen Silver is a journalist, essayist, and film critic, who is also a contributor to Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. One-World-Order

    January 21, 2025 at 6:39 pm

    No.

    A big no. No, no, no.

    All trump needs to do is establish a new bureau of ‘external revenue service’ and squeeze all those countries which have massively-sized embassies and consulates and diplomatic missions and ‘cultural centers’ abroad, especially in the western hemisphere, for dollops and dollops and dollops of money.

    That money can then be used to import items from truly poor countries to effectively fight inflation and speculation at home.

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