Hypersonic Breakthrough: Why ‘Fail Fast’ Matters for U.S. Missile Dominance

Key Points and Summary: Hypersonic missiles will dramatically expand the United States’ capabilities for long-range, time-sensitive strikes against heavily defended targets.

-As near-peer competitors refine their own hypersonic arsenals, America must adopt a “test fast, fail fast, learn fast” approach, accelerating innovation through frequent testing and iterative improvements.

-Each military service—Army, Navy, and Air Force—brings unique strengths to field hypersonic systems that support a comprehensive joint strategy.

-This includes land-based, sea-based, and air-launched hypersonic weapons, all integrated under a united plan.

-Achieving success requires stable funding, unwavering commitment to risk-taking, and deliberate interoperability to ensure the U.S. maintains its strategic and technological advantages.

The Race for Hypersonics: How the U.S. Plans to Stay Ahead of Rivals

The development of hypersonic missiles, capable of traveling at speeds exceeding Mach 5, cannot be just an ambition—it must be a commitment to maintaining the United States’ strategic edge and being ready for tomorrow’s near-peer fight. The unique capabilities hypersonic weapons deliver demand the U.S. adopt a comprehensive and coordinated strategy for their development and employment – one that synchronizes and synergizes U.S. military services, while embracing “test fast, fail fast, learn fast” in development.

Our previous article outlined the compelling need for warfighters to employ hypersonic weapons. Their extended range and speed enable engaging deep targets and time-sensitive targets. Further, hypersonic weapons can uniquely penetrate adversary defenses. Hypersonic weapons will enable our joint warfighters to hold an adversary at risk across space and time—a distinctive operational advantage.

Even more importantly, the U.S. can leverage a quiver of hypersonic weapons for operational and strategic deterrence. Hypersonic weapons satisfy both elements for deterring an adversary: they can “deny benefit,” and they can “impose cost.” If an adversary understands we can neutralize a ballistic missile attack before launch with hypersonic weapons (denying benefit), the adversary’s calculus is disrupted. In addition, if the adversary believes senior leaders or headquarters will be targeted in a conflict with hypersonic weapons (imposing cost), the decision to initiate the fight becomes harder.

Hypersonic weapons bring critical capability to the joint war fight. To fully realize the potential of hypersonic missiles, it is imperative we think and plan jointly to optimize these capabilities across all domains while the Army, Navy, and Air Force work collaboratively in a similar joint fashion to develop hypersonic capabilities. Notably, each service brings independent capabilities with a focus on the uniqueness of each launching domain. Strengths and vulnerabilities can be blended for optimal operational capability when we create a cohesive and effective strategy.

The Army’s land-based hypersonic system, the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), provides rapid, flexible, and precise strike capabilities from land-based platforms. These systems offer significant capacity and rapid reload when deployed to the fight. But being less mobile, they may be more vulnerable to adversary targeting.

The Navy’s Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) will deliver a sea-based hypersonic weapon. Maritime deployment offers the joint warfighter an over-the-horizon hypersonic strike capability and an unpredictable launch azimuth, further complicating the adversary’s defenses and operational plans. Unfortunately, the sea-based hypersonic inventory will be constrained by a ship’s magazine capacity and the number of ships available to a Combatant Commander.

The Air Force and the Navy are developing air-launched hypersonic systems (HACM—Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile and HALO—Hypersonic Air-Launched OASuW or Offensive Anti-Surface Warfare Increment 2, respectively). These air-launched weapons offer the flexibility to attack targets from multiple locations, altitudes, and ranges, and are the least likely to be pre-empted before launch. However, they provide the least hypersonic capacity in real-time.

It’s imperative that the U.S. strategize on how to blend and employ each service’s hypersonic capability. Joint warfighters will want to optimize the mix of hypersonic weapons in support of their regional plans. Congress and new leadership at the Department of Defense (DoD) must recognize and embrace that this strategy work needs to happen now and inform hypersonic weapon investment across the services.

Hypersonic weapons represent a revolutionary capability, and the operating environment demands we embark on an urgent campaign to obtain them. This requires mobilizing scientific, technical, and industrial resources, as we did in the Manhattan Project and the 1960s space program. A rapid and iterative development process and a robust test campaign that embraces a test often, accept failure, and learn much construct.

Acknowledging and learning from test failures is crucial for innovation. Hypersonic technology is complex, and we must accept that not all tests will be successful. However, each failure is an opportunity to learn and improve. Embracing “failure” [added the quotation marks here] as part of the development process informs iterative improvements and avoids prolonged setbacks. We must apply the Elon Musk principle: “Failure is an option here. If things are not failing, you are not innovating enough.”

The ability to rapidly incorporate lessons learned into subsequent iterations is key to developing these capabilities. Continuous feedback loops, where data from tests are immediately analyzed and used to inform future designs, ensure that the development process remains dynamic and responsive.

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Mission Capabilities, Mr. Thomas Browning, has the right sight picture: “We are at a point where we’ve really got to accept risk, and risk in the sense of trying new ideas and new concepts and doing that very quickly… leaning into really addressing joint challenges through rapid prototyping and rapid iteration, I think is the key to the future, and we need obviously support to get there.”

This iterative cycle of testing, failing, and learning accelerates technological advancement and enhances our ability to deliver the hypersonic weapons we need. For DoD to succeed, Congress needs to provide stable funding and not fear test failures.

The development of hypersonic missiles is a strategic imperative for the United States. They will be critical for long-range, time-sensitive target engagements, penetrating sophisticated defenses, and providing a robust deterrent. To achieve this, a coordinated and complementary effort across the services, led by the Joint Staff, is essential. Adopting a “test fast, fail fast, learn fast” approach will accelerate the development and deployment of hypersonic weapons, ensuring that the U.S. maintains its technological edge and strategic superiority in the face of evolving global threats.

About the Authors: 

MG Francis G. Mahon (U.S. Army, ret.) is an independent aerospace defense contractor and an Advisor for Stellar Solutions, Inc. He previously served as Director for Strategy, Policy and Plans at North American Aerospace Defense Command and US Northern Command; Director for Test at the Missile Defense Agency; and Commanding General of the 32nd Army Air and Missile Defense Command. 

Maj. Gen. Punch Moulton (U.S. Air Force, ret.) is a Senior Advisor at Stellar Solutions, Inc. after retiring from Vice President of Stellar Advisors. He previously served as the Director for Operations at US European Command, and as Director for the Standing Joint Force Headquarters at US Northern Command. He also served in multiple senior leadership positions both in US Forces Korea and US Forces Japan.

This first appeared in RealClearDefense.