Key Points and Summary: The U.S. Air Force plans to acquire at least B-21 Raider Bomber 100 units, but experts argue that 145 or more may be necessary to meet global threats.
-However, slow procurement rates raise concerns about maintaining deterrence against adversaries like China and Russia.
-As the cornerstone of America’s future bomber fleet, the B-21 Raider will define strategic airpower for decades.
Can the U.S. Build Enough B-21 Raiders to Counter China?
Unveiled on December 2nd, 2022, the B-21 Raider is the first US strategic bomber in nearly three decades.
Designed to replace the B-1 and B-2 bombers, it makes full use of technological, material science, and manufacturing advancements.
Bound to play a key role in the US’s conventional and nuclear deterrence arsenal, the B-21 is designed from the ground up to be able to keep up with future technological advances.
From the start, Northrop Gruman adopted a design philosophy that forgoes traditional block upgrades. Instead, new technologies, weapons, and capabilities will be integrated continuously through software updates and built-in hardware flexibility.
With America’s bomber fleet on track to just be 133 by 2033, the ability to maintain a higher level of readiness will be key to upholding conventional and nuclear deterrence in an increasingly unstable world.
The B-21 Raider Bomber Is a Game-Changer for a Reason
In addition to its rapid upgradability, another key feature is its design to support both manned and unmanned operations. Given the highly destructive nature of a peer conflict and the air force’s existing pilot shortage, the capability to deploy without a crew represents a substantial evolution and advantage over previous generations of bombers.
As well as being able to operate in an unmanned configuration, the B-21 is also designed to operate as a node in a larger family of systems for conventional long-range strikes that encompasses Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance, electronic attack, communication, and other capabilities.
While the B-2 set the bar for low observability in its era, the Raider pushes those boundaries further through refined fuselage contouring, advanced coatings, and a smaller radar cross-section. With China’s unveiling of what is being dubbed by the defense community as the “J-36”, the trend seems to be going in the direction of favoring stealth over maneuverability for survivability. With its smaller size and more advanced design, the B-21 is expected to be stealthier than its B-2 predecessor.
The Question Mark Questions for B-21
The Air Force initially planned to acquire “at least” 100 units, with each unit costing $692 million in 2022 dollars. However, high-level discussions regarding the size of the Raider fleet have increased as considerations for the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, drone development, and overall budget concerns evolve.
In the past, both the Chief of the Air Force and the Secretary of the Air Force testified before Congress, stating that a fleet of 220 bombers would likely be necessary to meet operational requirements. Considering the current plan to retain 75 upgraded B-52Js, this would mean that a fleet of 145 B-21s would be required.
B-21 Raider. Image Credit: U.S. Military.
The number of B-21’s is not the only topic of debate. The current procurement rate would mean that only 20-30 B-21’s would be operational by 2030.
With B-1s and B-2s being retired as B-21s are delivered, America’s bomber fleet would shrink further from its historical low, when America faces multiple revisionist powers.
To increase the procurement rate, the Air Force would likely have to agree to purchase more than the 145 needed to meet requirements.
Looking ahead, the B-21 Raider’s role as a cutting-edge deterrent platform cannot be overstated. Faced with complex threats from near-peer rivals and the ongoing need for both conventional and nuclear deterrence, the Raider is poised to fill critical gaps in America’s strategic arsenal.
Its open-architecture design enables constant integration of emerging technologies that allow for continual effectiveness against advanced air defenses as they evolve. Equally important, the aircraft’s unmanned option and networked capabilities deliver unmatched operational flexibility.
B-21. Image Credit: Northrop Grumman
What Happens Now?
In an increasingly volatile world where alliances and crisis flashpoints multiply, the Raider’s success will help shape the United States’ global influence and deterrence capabilities for decades to come.
About the Author: Nicholas Ayrton
Nicholas Ayrton is a recent graduate of Texas A&M University’s International Studies Program. He is also a Program Assistant at Texas A&M University’s Economic Statecraft Program. Prior to attending Texas A&M, Ayston was a U.S. Navy Cryptologic Technician.
