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Donald Trump’s Tariff Mistake: Canada Is No Enemy of America

President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with supporters at a "Keep America Great" rally at Arizona Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Phoenix, Arizona. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with supporters at a "Keep America Great" rally at Arizona Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Phoenix, Arizona.

US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada is an enormous, unforced error

There is no defensible intellectual rationale; the economic effects on US and Canadian consumers will be immediate and will accelerate, and it will negatively impact US national security by signaling that the US cannot be trusted, even by its closest, most loyal friends. 

It is painfully evident that these tariffs have been levied solely because of Trump’s personal obsession with tariffs.

Almost no one in official Washington thinks they are a good idea. Even the Wall Street Journal, normally a reliably pro-Trump outlet, calls this ‘the dumbest trade war in history.’

Economists know the tariffs are a bad idea. Tariffs and protectionist barriers against trade have been debunked by decades of slow growth and shoddy good production in the third-world socialist states. 

Tariff Drama: Donald Trump Wasn’t Elected to Worsen the Economy

Certainly, Trump’s voters did not call for these new import taxes. 

Trump campaigned on lowering the prices of goods for American families by reducing inflation. Tariffs, as a tax on imports, drive up prices, by definition. Even Trump himself has admitted that the tariffs will bring ‘pain,’ without actually stating why the US must suffer this pain or what end-state he is seeking from the tariffs. 

De-linking the US from the world economy is wildly unfeasible, and punishing a friendly neighbor with a long history of good relations with America seems almost comically counterproductive. This is likely why until Trump literally announced the tariffs, almost no one believed him

Economic Pain Is Coming

The economic impacts will be felt quickly. Canadian imports will become more expensive and specific US exports, like bourbon, will lose global market share. If Mexico and China, which Trump also hit with tariffs, cooperate with Canada in developing retaliatory tariffs – which is the smart strategy – the US could suffer serious, pointed pain as specific American sectors suddenly lose enormous overseas market share.

If the trade war drags on, its targets will start to diversify away from the US. Trump is now threatening the European Union too. Challenging all these large US trading partners simultaneously encourages them to coordinate in creating new frameworks that exclude the US. 

Donald Trump is betting that US allies will not go far in creating such platforms with authoritarian states, but the more Trump acts like a bully no different than China, the more US allies will defect for other options. 

A Wealthy, Pro-American Canada is a Huge American National Interest

There is also a less obvious national security rationale against the tariffs – namely, that Canada is a US neighbor and its orientation deeply affects US national security.

Indeed, Canada is almost certainly America’s most important ally – if only because it shares a huge land border with the US which would permit it to stir up all sorts of trouble for America if it became a genuine national opponent

It should go without saying that Canada has been a friendly, loyal US partner for a century. It aided the US against fascism in World War II, communism in the Cold War, and Islamic fundamentalism in the war on terror. Whenever the US has asked for its help, Canada has almost always obliged. 

During the Cold War, Canada allowed US forward radar installations to monitor polar air traffic, most obviously potential inbound Soviet missiles. It was also prepared to fight on land in Europe against the Red Army. On September 11, 2001, it famously obliged and allowed US airliners, which could make their American destinations, to land in Canada. It later fought in Afghanistan.

Trump’s tariff war, his overt loathing for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and his continuing threats to annex Canada undercut this accumulated goodwill. Canada will almost certainly drift from the US in the future, given that it is now clear, with Trump’s re-election, that many Americans want this sort of belligerent, angry governance. Trump is right that Canada is asymmetrically vulnerable – it needs the US more than vice versa – so it will likely be the first to blink in this trade war. 

President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with attendees at the 2019 Student Action Summit hosted by Turning Point USA at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with attendees at the 2019 Student Action Summit hosted by Turning Point USA at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida.

But it will not trust the US as it has before, and it will start to drift away. It will not cooperate with the US on North American issues as it did before. It will likely not fight for the US next time Washington is embroiled in a conflict. 

It will not vote as the US hopes in international organizations. It will consider imposing visas on travel. And if Trump really persists, it may flirt with China to send Washington a signal. 

Trump’s anti-Canadian tariffs violate black-letter law going all the way back to the US-Canada free trade agreement of 1988. They are illegal and foolish. US partners will see America is not a reliable partner and start to hedge it.

This way lies US alienation from its own friends and allies.

About the Author: Dr. Robert E. Kelly 

Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; RoberEdwinKelly.com) is a professor in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University and a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.

Written By

Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; website) is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University. Dr. Kelly is now a 1945 Contributing Editor as well. 

3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. Jacksonian Libertarian

    February 3, 2025 at 8:15 am

    Trump is right.
    The Canadians are ripping off America, with a trade surplus with America of $41B last year.
    That is $1,100 for every Canadian, taken out of American’s pockets.
    That is NOT fair trade.
    And they are not the only ones ripping off Americans and have been for over 50 years.
    The Mexicans stole $157B, the Chinese $279B and the rest of the world is robbing us as well.
    US GDP would grow by 3.5% if Trump can get us fair and balanced trade, and if not then a trade war will not hurt America as much as it will hurt all the parasites bleeding us dry.
    America after all is energy and food independent, has a mature infrastructure, vast resources, and Trump has already gained $1.5T in investments with more to follow.
    Trump is freezing foreign aid, bringing troops home, and ending freedom of navigation.
    America will return to “Leading by Example” and end the failed policy of trying to uplift every backward inferior culture.
    Deporting illegals will provide jobs for Americans, force wages up, and force American industries to reindustrialize for the Information Age with robots and AI to replace the labor that was outsourced to the world and will now be repatriated.
    Trump is way smarter than Kelly.

  2. waco

    February 3, 2025 at 9:01 am

    Trump is secretly hating the guts of trudeau and many of the other canadian politicians because they’re seen as weak-kneed and effiminate and woke.

    Where’s stephen harper when US-canadian relations need him.

    Harper once lambasted the fake left-wing liberal govt now ruling canada, the close ties to mexico and canada’s overly fondness of wokeism.

    What happened to the town of Tila in chiapas in june 2024.

    Heavily armed drug gangs took over the town turning it into a no-man’s-land and forcing people to flee. It wasn’t the first time.

    And in turn, trudeau allowed mexican ‘trail adventurers’ to travel all the way from mexico to western canada via seattle.

    Trump now wants to whack trudeau in the behind and after this, it’s the turn of the EU and zelenskyy.

  3. Ian Chappell

    February 3, 2025 at 9:23 am

    You buy our oil at a steep discount..because it’s land locked.If we stop selling you cheap oil, your ripping us off in trade.
    Don’t matter, the US has shown the type of “friend” it really is. We will survive.

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