Article Summary: Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles pose a significant threat to Western security. With an estimated 2,000 deployable tactical nukes, Russia has prioritized low-yield nuclear options, including the Avangard hypersonic boost-glide vehicle and the Oreshnik ballistic missile, which reportedly travels at Mach 10.
Key Points #1 – While these weapons could challenge U.S. defenses, Moscow’s ability to mass-produce them remains uncertain due to economic and manufacturing constraints.
Key Point #2 – The Pentagon’s response includes developing counter-hypersonic technology and modernizing the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Could these advancements reshape global deterrence, or is Russia’s nuclear hype overstated?
That 1 Word: Trouble.
Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons & Hypersonic Missiles: A Growing Threat?
Russia’s tactical nuclear missiles are a significant threat to the West.
The threat is meaningful enough that the United States is growing its own arsenal of low-yield nuclear weapons.
According to former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, the move to add low-yield weapons was not designed to lower the threshold for nuclear war, but rather to give commanders more tools with which to deter Russia.
His discussion of the topic followed the release and implementation in 2018 of the first Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review, which called for the creation of low-yield nuclear weapons to include new variants of the Trident II D5 and a submarine-launched nuclear-armed cruise missile.
The low-yield variant of the Trident II D5 was meant to show Russia that the United States would have a wide range of options with which to respond in the event of a nuclear attack.
But Moscow has not been deterred from expanding its own nuclear arsenal. Of particular concern, Russia has engineered several dual-mode hypersonic weapons said to be capable of nuclear attack as well as conventional strikes.
One such weapon is called the Avangard, a hypersonic, nuclear-capable boost-glide vehicle described by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a speech in 2018 as one of six “next-generation” weapons.
Russian Arsenal
Russia’s stockpile of low-yield, or tactical, nuclear weapons incorporates small 15-to-20 kiloton bombs and short-range missiles with nuclear warheads. Russian artillery is even capable of delivering low-yield nuclear weapons.
An essay in the U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings in 2018 said Russia at the time operated as many as 2,000 deployable tactical nuclear weapons.
“Although exact information about Russia’s and China’s warhead numbers remains unavailable, Russia’s conventional weakness is reflected in the fact that it has the world’s largest inventory of TNWs,” according to the essay.
Not Enough Long-Range Missiles
While Russia may have extremely advanced, long-range ballistic and hypersonic missiles, it may not have enough of these for a large-scale conflict.
This is likely true especially of hypersonic weapons, such as the Zircon hypersonic cruise missile and the Avangard nuclear-capable hypersonic boost-glide vehicle.
However effective or technologically advanced these weapons may be, Russia has longstanding production and economic problems that likely undercut the country’s ability to scale production and manufacture the missiles in the numbers needed to truly make an impact in a great-power war.
Should Russia succeed in addressing this challenge, its Yasen-M ballistic-missile submarines might be able to operate with a good number of Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, which would greatly impact the threat equation.
In theory, Russia could then launch a strike designed to generate a salvo of nuclear weapons flying at high speeds to overwhelm enemy defenses.
Nuclear-armed hypersonic missiles may travel too fast from one radar aperture to another to track them in a continuous fashion. This is one reason the U.S. is fast-tracking technologies designed to counter hypersonic weapons.
Oreshnik
Most recently, Russia fired a new Oreshnik non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile at a target in Dnipro. An essay in Newsweek said the Oreshnik traveled at 8,400 miles per hour.
Putin described the weapon as a non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile. He claimed it hit a Ukrainian arms factory.
“No countermeasures currently exist against such weapons,” Putin said, following the first use of the Oreshnik on Nov. 21. “These missiles strike targets at a speed of Mach 10—2.5 to 3 kilometers per second.”
Photos: Russia’s Nuclear Weapons
Russia’s road-mobile ICBMs that carry nuclear weapons.
Russian nuclear weapons. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Russian nuclear weapons. Image Credit: Russian State Media.
Russian Nuclear Weapons. Image is of a Russian Mobile ICBM. Image Credit – Creative Commons.
About the Author: Kris Osborn
Kris Osborn is the Military Technology Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
