The True Cost of the F-35: Worth the $2 Trillion Price Tag?
Key Points and Summary: The F-35 Lightning II fighter has seen both remarkable success and controversy. Despite cost overruns and delays, it has been widely adopted by 20 countries. Initially aimed at affordability, costs have ballooned over time, with the aircraft’s per-hour operational expenses far exceeding original estimates.
Key Point #1 – However, the F-35 stands out for safety, logging over 1 million flight hours with a significantly lower accident rate than its predecessors.
Key Point #2 – Its technological advancements have prompted adversaries to develop similar fighters. Ultimately, while its combat effectiveness remains untested against peers, the F-35’s long-term success hinges on cost control and geopolitical stability.
Why the F-35 Lightning II Is Both a Huge Success and Controversial Fighter Jet
The F-35 Lightning II strike fighter is shaping up to be the most successful fighter aircraft ever. But it is also a lock to be the most controversial fighter of all time.
Over the past 20 years, the aircraft has seen repeated delays, endured repeated calls for it to be canceled, and moved through technical, cost, and supply-chain problems.
Now, more than two decades into the program, is the F-35 shaping up to be worth the $2 trillion (or more) it will cost over its lifetime?
There are many criteria to judge an airplane’s success or failure. The most important, its primacy in combat, is still unknown for the F-35, as the aircraft has not faced a peer opponent on the battlefield, and hopefully never will.
This short article will measure the F-35’s worth using other metrics.
The F-35 Is No Joke
The F-35 is on track to becoming a successful fighter, but air forces are having to live with some disappointments related to the fighter—chiefly involving money.
One area where the F-35 has seen definite success is adoption. Twenty countries fly the F-35, many of whom upgraded to the fighter from the F-16 Fighting Falcon. Even with higher-than-expected costs and developmental delays, the F-35 has had little problem attracting customers. Admittedly the F-35 had a major advantage in being the only real, credible fifth-generation replacement for the F-16, but it picked up major customers its predecessor did not, including Japan, the United Kingdom, and Australia.
At least 10 F-16 operators acquired their planes after the end of the Cold War—nearly 20 years after the F-16’s first flight—suggesting that the F-35 may pick up even more customers in the future.
The Cost Challenge Is Real
The F-35 program has been less successful in bringing costs down. The Lightning II was originally pitched in the 2000s at a flyaway cost of $50 million per plane, but development issues and low purchase orders sent the cost skyrocketing. By the mid-2010s, all three versions cost well over $100 million per unit, with the -B and -C models costing more than $120 million.
Today, the most affordable version, the F-35A, costs $82 million, which is fairly close to the original estimate when accounting for inflation—but inflation was never meant to be the path to affordability.
F-35 Image: Creative Commons.
The F-35’s affordability problem extends to flight costs. In the early 2000s, the F-35 program set a goal of $25,000 per flight hour. This was still higher than the F/A-18 Super Hornet at the time, but acceptable considering the F-35’s greater capabilities, especially the high-maintenance skin coatings that help reduce its radar signature.
The aircraft proved more expensive to operate than originally planned; by 2014 the cost per flight hour had surged to an unsustainable $88,000 per hour. This reduced flight hours as air forces struggled to hold down costs. The cost per hour came down to about $33,600 in 2012 dollars, which is probably pretty close to the original $25,000 an hour, accounting for inflation.
The Safe Stealth Fighter
Back on the plus side, the F-35 has been a remarkably safe aircraft. The worldwide F-35 fleet has, according to the official F-35 web site, racked up more than 1 million flight hours, and just 13 aircraft have been lost due to mechanical failure.
That’s more than 76,923 flight hours between any two accidents involving damage to the aircraft, loss of the aircraft, and injuries to personnel. No pilots have been lost in mechanical-related F-35 accidents, although one Japan Air Self-Defense Force pilot was lost in an accident that happened due to spatial disorientation.
Nearly 80,000 hours without a major accident is unremarkable for commercial aircraft, but for high-performance jet fighters, it is unprecedented. Since its introduction in the 1970s, the Air Force F-15 Eagle fleet has experienced one major accident for every 43,917 flight hours, with 54 aircrew killed. The Air Force F-16 fleet experienced one major accident for every 30,838 hours.
In the early years of the F-14 Tomcat, the Navy lost one aircraft per 11,273 hours, a number that may not include accidents that involved expensive repairs.
During the Cold War, the Air Force’s F-104 Starfighter averaged just 3,333 hours between major accidents.
It Set Fighter Trends for Deacdes to Come
Finally, for all its troubles, the F-35’s development has prodded potential adversaries to develop similar aircraft of their own. China developed the J-35 Gyrfalcon, which not only visually resembles the F-35, but is also a single-seat stealthy strike fighter with both land- and carrier-based versions.
Russia has announced the Sukhoi Su-75 “Checkmate”, a similar low-cost fighter meant to augment the heavier, twin-engine, more capable, and more expensive Su-57 “Felon”.
F-35A Joint Strike Fighter. Image Credit: Lockheed Martin.
Both countries could have spared themselves the expense of developing a new fighter, if they were reasonably sure the F-35 would turn out to be a lemon, but the American fighter has prodded them into spending billions to eventually replace their existing fighter force.
The F-35 Question: Can We Really Answer It?
Is the stealth fighter a success? We will know after a major conflict, or in 40 years, whichever comes first. Time (and money) are gradually smoothing out the F-35’s problems.
All is not smooth flying, however: A possible reduction in defense spending under the administration of President Donald Trump, and the influence of billionaire Elon Musk, who believes the F-35 is already obsolete and calls F-35 builders “idiots,” could see the program finally experience long-dreaded cuts.
A U.S. Navy F-35C Lightning II fighter jet performs during the California International Air Show in Salinas, California, Oct. 29, 2021. The F-35C has a larger wingspan and internal fuel capacity as well as stronger landing gear than the F-35A and F-35B variants. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Andrew D. Sarver)
The administration’s bizarre and unproductive behavior toward allies, including F-35 operators, could cause them to reduce their exposure to U.S. defense exports.
The fighter may be the most advanced and survivable fighter in history, but it is still vulnerable to friendly fire.
About the Author: Kyle Mizokami
A 19FortyFive Contributing editor, Kyle Mizokami is a defense and national-security writer based in San Francisco. His work has appeared in Popular Mechanics, Esquire, The National Interest, Car and Driver, Men’s Health, and many others. He is the founder and editor for the blogs Japan Security Watch, Asia Security Watch and War Is Boring.
