‘Drone’ Carriers Could Be the Future of Warfare No One Saw Coming

The Drone Carrier Debate, Explained

Do the plans for expanding the number of drone carriers soon to be operated by navies around the world make the conventional carrier that launches manned aircraft obsolete?

The premise of the argument implied that “making the issue an ‘either-or’ proposition is a wrong one,” said a US defense industry executive with many years of experience working with naval air systems, is wrong.

Rather than replacing the operated aircraft carrier, the drone carrier is an adjunct or a force multiplier for the naval air wing that launches and recovers live human aviators at sea. The advent of better, more lethal man-portable air defense systems like the US-made Stinger or anti-tank guided missiles (ATGM) like the Javelin did not make big air defense batteries or the main battle tank redundant. Instead, they made their jobs easier and enhanced the probability of mission success.

Much the same kind of positive impact on the aircraft carrier’s mission is accomplished by the drone carrier in two distinct ways:

The first is that the long-standing aircraft carrier always has the same twin problem of insufficient carriers to cover the territory that needs securing in general and not enough aircraft for the carriers at sea at any one time in particular.

Drones are a small fraction of the cost of a conventional, crewed aircraft and can be manufactured much faster. Speaking with a colleague a few years ago when he was still working for one of the major US aerospace OEMs, he explained just how dire the problems with fighter aircraft production rates are today.

“A foreign sales customer who signs for the purchase of a new fighter—even if it is an older and theoretically easier to build model like the F-16V or the F-15EX—always asks how soon their aircraft can be delivered. They always receive the same answer, which is ‘in about seven years.’ For nations with immediate, near-term security challenges, that is orders of magnitude too long of a lead time.

If, as predicted, drones are about to be seen in much greater numbers flying from carrier flight decks in many parts of the globe, these perennial shortages will be cut down to size.

More Partners, More Synergism

Secondly, drones can operate from ships not designed for fixed-wing planes, creating a geometric expansion of the area in which ship-based aviation assets can operate. This, as one article on the subject details, also gives more navies around the world the opportunity to join the ranks of carrier-operating nations.

One of the most recent additions to this “club” is South Korea.

In November 2024, the Asian nation launched a drone aboard the naval warship ROKS Dokdo, conducted two simulated landings on board the ship, and eventually touched down successfully on land. All the time, the entire flight was controlled by a human controller based on shore hundreds of miles away.

This means that a growing list of countries, including Turkey, Spain, Australia, Japan, and Thailand, will soon be devising methods of using some of the latest models of short takeoff and landing drones in a maritime environment.

Inside The Loop

Having a drone-capable ship that is not a traditional carrier is a new concept that could have a tremendous impact in a crisis situation that no other vessel could be employed to do. 

As an assessment of the South Korean example details, the “ROKS Dokdo is an amphibious assault ship designed to perform a wartime ‘Hail Mary’ play.”  Its mission profile is to launch marines in a lightning-speed operation against the neighboring Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) – putting them ashore on hovercraft and helicopters.

Then, the Marines are to storm the North Korean capital of Pyongyang to kill or capture leader the DPRK leader Kim Jong-un before he can launch his nuclear weapons.  Having a fleet of drones that can wade in along with the Marines and hit important targets like communication centers and command nodes could paralyze the DPRK military.

The size of a conventional carrier, the altitude that its aircraft must fly at, and the attention it attracts just being anywhere within the range of an F/A-18E/F or other strike aircraft rule out the operational surprise and ability to get inside the enemy’s decision loop.  A convention carrier could not be part of the scenario described above.

However, these are the kind of “surprise attack” plans that can be launched with little or no notice—very effective and unable to detect until too late. These mission profiles are not a reason to junk the big carriers. Instead, they show how they can hut the enemy in ways they could never imagine.

About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson 

Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw.  He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design.  Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.