Summary and Key Points: Tensions between the US and Iran are rising sharply as Iranian-backed Houthi forces in Yemen continue attacking merchant ships and targeting US Navy vessels in the Red Sea.
-With advanced Iranian missiles and potential Russian assistance, there’s a significant risk that Iran could successfully strike—or even sink—a US aircraft carrier.
-President Trump’s administration warns it will directly hold Iran accountable for further Houthi aggression.
-To mitigate risk, the US Navy might reposition carriers to safer waters, increase targeted airstrikes on Iranian assets, and even consider direct strikes against Iran if attacks escalate. The situation demands proactive rather than reactive measures.
Can Iran Hit or (Gasp!) Sink A US Navy Aircraft Carrier?
The US has pre-positioned B-2 Spirit stealth bombers on Diego Garcia. The US, traditionally, has tried to treat Iran with kid gloves in the mistaken hope that they would like us. Yet Iran is responsible for the deaths of thousands of Americans. This belligerence has gone on for decades. However, things are changing in the second Trump administration.
The constant attacks by the Iranian proxy group the Houthis on merchant shipping and the US Navy, the Iranians continuing to lie about their “peaceful” nuclear program, which is just a shade under nuclear weapons grade, and the continuing spread of Iranian-sponsored terrorism have finally woken Washington from a four-decades long slumber.
Trump acted in his first administration with the targeted killing of Quds Force General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, shortly after the Iranian military official landed in Iraq.
Last week, President Trump posted on his Truth Social that he would hold Iran directly responsible for any future attacks by the Houthis.
“Every shot fired by the Houthis will be looked upon, from this point forward, as being a shot fired from the weapons and leadership of IRAN, and IRAN will be held responsible and suffer the consequences,” he wrote.
“Any further attack or retaliation by the ‘Houthis’ will be met with great force,” Trump added that “Iran has played ‘the innocent victim’” in the conflict.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Hossein Salami says the Houthis “make their own decisions.”
And if he hits the Iranians in his second term, now would be the time. The Israelis smoked Iran’s air defenses in late October, taking out all of their S-300 air defense systems while taking out missile factories and a nuclear research facility.
But what happens if Iran launches attacks and hits a US aircraft carrier?
Iran Has Missiles, Drones, Rockets, Cruise, And Ballistic Missiles
Would Iran try to strike a US carrier in the Red Sea directly? Even though the Houthis are their proxy force in Yemen, it does give them a fragile veneer of plausible deniability.
Iran has reverse-engineered a variant of the Chinese-made C-802 anti-ship missile. The Iranians call it the Noor missile or the Abu Mahdi. Some analysts believe that this missile can severely damage or possibly sink an aircraft carrier.
The Noor has a range of 136 miles and a top speed of Mach 1.4. The Iranians claim to have built a cruise missile with a range of 630 miles; the Talaeiyeh is a long-range “smart” missile that can switch targets and adjust course during flight.
The shorter-range Nasir cruise missile, which has a range of 100 km (62 miles), can be employed on warships.
Since the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 6, 2023, the Houthis have launched more than 140 attacks on warships, commercial vessels, Israeli targets, and other targets.
After Warnings To Iran Are Ignored, The Houthis Persist With Attacks
After the first attack on the USS Harry S. Truman, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said during an interview on Sunday morning, “This campaign is about freedom of navigation and restoring deterrence. The minute the Houthis say, ‘We’ll stop shooting at your ships, we’ll stop shooting at your drones,’ this campaign will end. But until then, it will be unrelenting.”
The Houthis answered Hegseth with another attack on Truman’s carrier strike group. Now, the US has diverted a carrier strike group from the Pacific, and USS Carl Vinson’s strike group has joined the Truman.
Thus far, the Houthis have failed to hit any US Navy ships but have hit merchant shipping. The reason for this speaks well of the training, expertise, and layered defenses the US has built around its carriers and accompanying strike group.
But If 100 missiles are launched at the carriers and 99 are shot down, that one missile could be a disaster for the Navy
Iran And Russia Are Supporting Missile Strikes In The Red Sea
For decades, the United States has reacted to terrorism by hitting the symptom rather than the host. What do the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and Iraqi militias (who attacked the US embassy) have in common? Iran. And Russia.
Last September, Iran brokered talks between Russia and the Houthis where Russia will supply the terror group with Russian Yakhont missiles – also known as P-800 Oniks – which would allow the terror group to more accurately strike commercial vessels in the Red Sea and increase the threat to the US and European warships defending them.
The Russians have done this before, sending P-800 Oniks to Hezbollah in Lebanon. As much as President Trump believes he can make a deal with Putin, it was Putin who paid a bounty to the Taliban for killing American soldiers in Afghanistan. And while the Iranians have been the state sponsors of terrorism for more than 40 years, Russia has moved into Yemen in a big way.
The Russian military intelligence service the GRU has set up in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa under the guise of humanitarian aid, providing technical assistance that enhances Houthi military operations.
The Houthis attacks in the Red Sea have not targeted Russian or Chinese vessels, which the Houthis themselves have confirmed.
The Iranians are smarting from losing much of their proxies in the region. Israel has crippled Hamas in the ground war in Gaza. Hezbollah suffered a similar fate as the Israelis targeted the leadership and the tunnels of the terror group. However, its most significant loss was the overthrow of Syrian President Assad by rebel groups.
What Will The US Response Be If An Aircraft Carrier Is Hit?
If the Houthis hit an American carrier or (worst-case scenario) sink one, President Trump will be faced with an absolute dilemma. What will the US response be? Simply hitting the Houthis with yet another airstrike? Regardless of how massive that strike would be, it would seem reactive and impotent.
The “useful idiots” in Yemen would have to be dealt with severely. But what about the heads of the snake in Tehran and Moscow?
The key here is not to wait until that happens but to react proactively instead of reactively, which has not worked for 40 years.
Start with sinking Iran’s intelligence and targeting ships. We know that this is how the Houthis get their targeting information.
The US also knows where the Houthi command and control centers are. Those have to be eliminated now. Also, the Houthi physical infrastructure used for the attacks—coastal radars, manned Houthi maritime craft, land-based ballistic missile launchers, unmanned speed boats, maintenance facilities, ammunition caches, and drone construction centers—must be eliminated.
The US airstrikes have probably been targeting this last target. But what about Tehran and Moscow? Sinking the Iranian intelligence ships would get Tehran’s attention, but it would not be enough. Blockading the Yemeni ports will be necessary. Striking Iran itself is no longer a taboo subject.
And the targeting of senior Houthi, Iranian, and Russian advisors on the ground should absolutely be on the table. If a US warship is hit, it is an act of war, although their launching of missiles at our ships is already that.
The Houthis and their Iranian masters have called the US’s bluff. What the US does will directly impact Iran’s actions. Tehran has the missiles to hit and possibly sink a US warship or aircraft carrier.
The Navy must move the two carrier groups out of the shallow waters of the Red Sea and into deeper waters of the Indian Ocean. The drones, short-range missiles, and torpedoes wouldn’t be able to touch the carriers, but the carrier aircraft could quickly strike targets in Iran, should the situation call for it.
The Navy has fast-attack cruise missile submarines in the region, and if the Navy deems it necessary, they can launch Tomahawk cruise missiles at targets in Yemen or Iran.
While President Trump has made it clear that he wants to keep us out of endless wars in the Middle East, what is the end game once the shooting starts?
Navy Aircraft Carriers: A Story in Pictures
USS George HW Bush Aircraft Carrier. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The aircraft carrier USS George H. W. Bush (CVN 77) on builder’s trials, 2/13/2009. The ship, named after the nation’s 41st president, is the 10th and final Nimitz-class, nuclear-powered carrier built at Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding-Newport News. Photo by John Whalen, Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding.
170808-N-FP878-008.ATLANTIC OCEAN (Aug. 8, 2017) The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Donald Cook (DDG 75) maneuvers between the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea (CG 58), left, and the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George H. W. Bush (CVN 77), right, for a photo exercise during exercise Saxon Warrior 2017, Aug. 8. Saxon Warrior is a United States and United Kingdom co-hosted carrier strike group exercise that demonstrates allied interoperability and capability to respond to crises and deter potential threats. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Theron J. Godbold /Released).
USS George H.W. Bush Aircraft Carrier. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a 19FortyFive National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing for 19FortyFive, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications
