Article Summary: Germany’s acquisition of the F-35 stealth fighter to replace its aging Tornado jets underscores a critical alignment within NATO. However, former German Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger warns that U.S. cutbacks in aid to Ukraine could trigger Berlin to reconsider reliance on American weaponry, including potentially canceling the F-35 deal.
Could Germany Cancel Its F-35 Deal Over U.S. Policies?
In March 2022, the month following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Germany’s armed forces decided they would acquire the US-made F-35. The stealth fighter will replace the Panavia Tornado IDS in the Luftwaffe’s NATO nuclear strike role. The 35 aircraft to be acquired will come from manufacturing in the United States as part of the deal.
The first F-35s are to be delivered in 2026 and are supposed to achieve initial operating capability (IOC) in 2028. Specifications call for the aircraft to be capable of performing the nuclear strike mission that it is taking over from the Tornado by 2030.
Given the increasing tempo of the Ukraine war and the constant and regular threats by Russia to unleash its nuclear arsenal, there may be a move to bring this date forward.
Germany’s acquisition of the F-35 is a significant development in the alignment of air power within the NATO alliance. Among other aspects, it makes Germany the third of the four initial Eurofighter partner nations to now operate both that aircraft and the F-35 together. As one UK colleague coined, aligning and correlating air power planning among the partners is more effective and user-friendly.
However, recent events threaten this move towards a more harmonious relationship between allies.
F-35 and Germany: Re-Thinking Linkages
Former Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger was the long-time chairman of the famous annual Munich Security Conference (MSC) and is still the elder statesman of the event. He served most of his life in the German diplomatic service, where he was the ambassador to the United States from 2001 to 2006 and the Court of St. James from 2006-2008. He also served a stint as the Deputy Foreign Minister.
Ischinger was close friends with the late US Senator John McCain and was well-versed in the nuances of military-industrial cooperation between Germany and the US. Therefore, when he speaks about issues concerning relations between Washington and Berlin, it usually means he has been in discussions with the principal players on both sides.
Knowing his background and connections, it was no small import when he spoke with Germany’s largest-circulation publications, Bild, this week. He stated that United States President Donald Trump’s scaling back military aid and other support for Ukraine will negatively impact Germany’s relationship with Washington, where defense cooperation is concerned.
Ischinger told Bild: “If we should fear that the US would make the future German F-35 [jets] the same as they do in Ukraine now, then the issue of contract cancellation may be considered.”
The former ambassador was talking in general about the US commitment to NATO solidarity and standing with Ukraine to support Europe when confronted with growing Russian aggression and expansionism. He and others are also concerned about US actions to block Ukraine’s access to US intelligence sharing and cut off access to Starlink.
However, specifically related to the F-35 is the example of Washington shutting down the operation, which had the US and Ukraine Air Forces sharing data and continuing to update the radar and electronic warfare systems for the Ukraine F-16s.
The US-European Co-Dependency
Ischinger’s voice adds to those who talk of a “kill switch” embedded in the F-35’s software that would permit the US to cripple or even ground the fleet of any customer nation’s F-35s. This possibility, combined with the news of how hampered the use of F-16s has been for Ukraine, creates a narrative in Germany that runs against any increasing dependence on the US.
At present, those who have articulated their concerns about Europe’s growing reliance on the US for arms have plenty of evidence to confirm their fears. But just deciding to not be in a position for Washington to use its influence and power malignly is easier said than done.
U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft mechanic Lance Cpl. William Wiggins assigned to Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 121, currently attached to Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 265 (Reinforced), 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), monitors an F-35B aboard amphibious assault ship USS America (LHA 6), in the Philippine Sea Aug. 18, 2021. The F-35B’s fifth generation strike fighter capabilities bring more lethality and flexibility to combatant commanders than any other aircraft platform. The 31st MEU is operating aboard ships of America Expeditionary Strike Group in the 7th fleet area of operations to enhance interoperability with allies and partners and serve as a ready response force to defend peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Staff Sgt. John Tetrault)
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), some 55 percent of arms imports by European states in 2019–23 were supplied by the US, a steep rise from 35 percent in 2014–18.
This means that more than 50 percent of all weapons imported by European nations came from US suppliers.
Dan Smith, the Director of SIPRI, stated in their annual report that “at the same time, Europe is responsible for about a third of global arms exports, including large volumes going outside the region, reflecting Europe’s strong military-industrial capacity.”
South Korean F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Germany now has to decide how to execute and carry out a delicate balancing act. As a new government takes power in Berlin, this issue is bound to come up more than once.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
