The F-47 Next-generation NGAD Warbird Flew for Years as an “X-Plane” – While many people in the defense analysis community were surprised at the announcement of the F-47 Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter on Friday, multiple experimental airplanes (x-planes) have already secretly flown for the NGAD program, which is another shock.
One was flight-tested in 2019 and the other in 2022.
Air Force Chief of Staff David Allvin made the following statement on March 21 after the award to Boeing. “For the past five years, the x-planes for this aircraft have been quietly laying the foundation for the F-47 — flying hundreds of hours, testing cutting-edge concepts, and proving that we can push the envelope of technology with confidence.”
F-47: Secretive Agency Flew Technology Demonstrators
Guess which office was behind it?
That would be the ultra-secret Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which kept the NGAD project tightly hidden from prying eyes.
This was part of the Air Dominance Initiative Study that dated back to 2014.
This research later became the Aerospace Innovation Initiative. DARPA conducted this development project for 10 years to define “the next era of air dominance.”
The Air Force Was Not Forthcoming
The whole idea was to replace the F-22 Raptor. It is unclear how much the DARPA experimental technology demonstrators will influence the F-47.
They could have shown how different designs could emerge from the Air Dominance Initiative and the Aerospace Innovation Initiative.
The Air Force held these projects strictly hush-hush. Former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall, the ever-quotable and candid bureaucrat, never released specific information about the X-planes.
That left the defense establishment to wonder about the actual design of the NGAD.
Were the Airplanes the Best Entries from Boeing and Lockheed Martin?
The testing program that DARPA executed could have seen multiple models from Boeing and Lockheed Martin go head-to-head in a flying competition with actual flight data being compared and contrasted.
If that was the case, then the x-planes will be used as more than just technology demonstrators.
They could be active prototypes, and the final design for Boeing’s model might be similar to the original X-plane design developed by DARPA.
To be frank: It is just too soon to be sure at this point.
The Flight of the X-Planes Was a Big Surprise
The secrecy of the DARPA program has been frustrating to me. I feel bamboozled by the Air Force because I was always under the belief that very little design parameters had been determined for the NGAD. And I thought that is why Kendall placed the program under pause last year.
So, the secrecy around the NGAD will be a significant aspect behind the program. Boeing may just take their technology demonstrator under advisement and use it for only base model simulations. There could also be an uncrewed version that does not have any design features at the moment.
“While our X-planes were flying in the shadows, we were cementing our air dominance – accelerating the technology, refining our operational concepts, and proving that we can field this capability faster than ever before. Because of this, the F-47 will fly during President Trump’s administration,” General Allvin said.
F-47: It Better Not Cost $300 Million Per Unit
Interestingly, the Air Force chief of staff predicted that the F-47 would take to the skies sometime in the next three to four years while Trump was still in office.
Congress and the media will be watching since the president made such a startling announcement of the airplane. This is now a high-profile program, and we don’t even know the cost estimate. It cannot be as high as $300 million per airplane. The F-47 would have to be much less than that before it could enter serial production.
Then, there are other considerations beyond the design. Just how stealthy will it be? What munitions can be onboard? The F-47 is expected to carry hypersonic weapons or even lasers. It will be a “family or system of systems” which could include the ability to be a drone quarterback to control the Collaborative Combat Aircraft unmanned warbirds.
How difficult will it be to follow the growth of the F-47? The pressure will be on Boeing to deliver. Leaks about the design will likely happen, or the contractor will keep everything under wraps and only make announcements when significant milestones are met.
The program will also be under scrutiny because of the fanfare and the White House announcement. Trump “owns” this airplane now. Democrats on the Senate Armed Services Committee and House Armed Services Committee will fault the Trump administration if there are problems with the F-47 program because the president has placed such a large target on its back.
We will have to see how this airplane progresses and whether it can be delivered on time and under budget.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
