Yesterday was one the most bizarre days in modern US foreign policy history. In just a month, the administration of President Donald Trump has effected a revolution in American foreign policy.
After eighty years of support for the liberal international order – including a lengthy cold war against communist states seeking to overturn that order – Trump is taking the United States toward alignment with an aggressive dictatorship – Russia – against traditional partners and allies.
Donald Trump’s New World Order
This is a remarkably, head-spinning turnabout, and Trump’s Oval Office availability with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky illustrated just how far Trump intends to go.
Trump and his vice-president, JD Vance, openly channeled Russian talking points about the war on live television. They disputed the reality that Russia started the war. They berated Zelensky for resisting Russia’s invasion rather than ‘dealing,’ which appears to mean negotiating Ukraine’s surrender. And they repeated the long-disproven assertion that Ukraine is risking World War III by resisting. Russia has long hoped that vague nuclear bluffs would cajole the West into cutting off aid to Ukraine, but were Russia going to use nuclear weapons in the war, it likely would have done so already.
The meeting ended on the even more bizarre and unseemly insistence that Zelensky show his gratitude. Zelensky gave a speech to the US Congress two years ago doing exactly that and has prolifically thanked Ukraine’s supporters on TV and social media. The complaint yesterday seems to be that Zelensky has not thanked Trump personally. Perhaps Zelensky should have groveled before Trump to keep him happy, but obeying the American president as if he were a king dispensing favor is an embarrassing servility.
If Trump were likely to help Zelensky, perhaps it would have been worth it. But Trump loathes Zelensky and has for years, while he clearly admires Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump seems determined to help Putin end the war on favorable terms. It is unlikely Zelensky would have gotten any sort of meaningful deal from Trump.
Theater Criticism is Irrelevant
The traditional US foreign policy establishment was aghast at the press conference. The Trump-driven US breach with Europe and Canada will now widen. The US will increasingly stand alone in the West. Much of the trumpist media world seems to grasp this, hence its growing discussion of whether Zelensky was polite enough, thankful enough, should have worn a suit, and so on. It changes the subject from the disgraceful spectacle of a powerful country bullying a weaker one under invasion.
But this debate about Zelensky’s manners is just theater criticism. It is irrelevant to the real issue at hand: how to end the war on decent terms for Ukraine while recognizing that its full demands – territorial restoration, deeper integration into western institutions, and Russian compensation – are unlikely.
And on that topic, the Trump administration still seems to have no plan. To date, its focus seems to be pushing Ukraine to surrender – to accept the loss of territory to Russia, exclusion from NATO, economic compensation to the US, and no economic compensation from Russia without any meaningful counter-concessions such as US security guarantees.
Even if this were a just outcome – which it is not – it so balance-negative for Ukraine, that one wonders if Trump, Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and others genuinely believe Ukraine would accept this. Continuing to fight and hoping for Russian exhaustion is a better deal for Ukraine than simply giving up.
The Ukraine War: What Happens Now?
Ukraine will not just give up because the US tells it to do so. It will obviously fight for a better deal: if Putin will not offer concessions too, why would Zelensky just give up?
This is likely why Zelensky did not grovel. Ukraine’s position, while not good, is better than Trump partisans think it is. Ukraine has fought for three years and done better than anyone predicted. Yes, it is losing at the moment, but only at a very slow pace which more and better western assistance could blunt even further.
It is unclear how long Russia can sustain the massive costs of this war for minor gains given its larger strategic desire to be a peer competitor of the US, Europe, and China. At some point, Russia will need a break too.
Was Trump Setting Up Ukraine?
Stepping back, this press conference looks a lot like a set-up of Zelensky by Trump and Vance to justify the breach with Ukraine they have long wanted anyway. The absurd debate over Zelensky’s manners – as if that, not the war, were the issue at hand – is the giveaway.
Trump has been signaling his rejection of the liberal international order for weeks – with threats against Canada, Denmark, Panama, and Mexico, or calling Zelensky a dictator. And Trump is clearly smitten by Putin.
President of the United States Donald Trump speaking with attendees at the 2019 Student Action Summit hosted by Turning Point USA at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida.
Yesterday just confirmed – loud and clear – what Trump has been telling us for weeks: the US is disaligning with its traditional partners and aligning with Russia.
About the Author: Dr. Robert E. Kelly
Dr. Robert E. Kelly is a professor of political science at Pusan National University. Kelly is also a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor. You can find him on X: @Robert_E_Kelly.
