Is History Repeating? Zapad-25 Revives Fears of Russian Aggression
Article Summary: Zapad-25, a major joint military exercise between Russia and Belarus scheduled for September 2025, has raised concerns due to its proximity and similarity to events preceding Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Historically, the Zapad exercises have positioned Russian troops in Belarus, creating ideal conditions for subsequent military actions.
–Belarus will host approximately 13,000 Russian soldiers, prompting Ukraine and Western allies to fear potential escalation or renewed invasion threats.
–Belarusian opposition figures warn against Lukashenko’s attempts to present himself as a neutral mediator, cautioning the West to remain skeptical, given his previous cooperation with Russia and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region.
Belarus and Russia’s Zapad-25 Exercises Have Ukraine on High Alert
In September, Russia and Belarus will hold another major “Zapad” military exercise. The word means “West” in Russian. The exercise signifies that Moscow automatically assumes that any major military will be against a coalition of Western nations, if not the entire NATO alliance.
This year’s exercise, Zapad-2025, will be the first full-scale drill of its kind since 2021. The rhythm of the Zapad schedule is that they occur every four years, with smaller-scale practice engagements every two years. Russia initially announced this year’s exercises in 2024, although the exact date in September was not provided until last month.
During this event, Belarus will “host” some 13,000 Russian troops in its territory. This roster is according to Valery Revenka, head of the Department of International Military Cooperation at the Belarusian Defense Ministry.
One of the first questions the Belarus Ministry of Defense (MoD) asked when the Zapad-25 dates were announced was whether international observers would be on hand to monitor this exercise. The last time there were a large number of Russian troops on Belarus territory was during the previous Zapad-21 drills.
Prelude To Invasion?
The fact that Russian troops were moving into Belarus in 2021 for the Zapad exercise is not unusual. However, a post-mortem report points out there was a “buildup of troops and vehicles at a training range near the Ukrainian border that were not used as part of Zapad 2021 exercises. From an analyst perspective, this should have been an extremely powerful signal to Ukraine about what was coming.”
Five months later, Russia invaded Ukraine, with one of the main invasion routes originating with those troops left in Belarus.
At the same time, Russia was also able to deploy S-300 air defense systems and Su-30SM aircraft to bases in Belarus.
Additionally, conducting the exercises in Russia’s Military District created the opportunity for Russia to position other units near the border with Ukraine. This put them in the best deployment posture possible to conduct the February 2022 invasion.
Given this history, it is therefore understandable that there should be a call for some monitoring of the exercise. However, Revenka claimed that Belarus is “developing its position” regarding the invitations for OSCE member states to observe the drills. He also declared Belarus’s readiness to conduct a mutual military inspection with Poland of the areas within 80 kilometers of their mutual border.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated the concern about Zapad-25 and the possibility of a buildup of Russian troops in Belarus at the February Munich Security Conference. At the time, he claimed Russia would deploy 15 divisions, totaling 100,000 to 150,000 troops—primarily in Belarus—and that they would be placed there not as part of an exercise but in preparation for a major military escalation.
Eyewitness to History
One of the eyewitnesses to the February 2022 invasion was Vadim Prokopiev, a vocal opponent of Belarus president Aleksandr Lukashenko, who had been forced into political exile in Ukraine in the summer of 2020 and today a leader of the Washington, DC-based opposition-in-exile.
Having spoken to Belarus military contacts not long after the announcement of the timing for the exercise, he explained, “The nature of the Zapad-2025 military drills will largely depend on the geopolitical situation, especially on any developments with the Russia-Ukraine war.”
If a peace agreement [between Russia and Ukraine] is signed by then—which currently seems unlikely—Russia will indeed have more resources to strengthen its military presence in Belarus. Neighboring countries and the EU might view the movement of troops for the exercise as pressure in the region.
“In the case of a prolonged conflict in Ukraine or its active phase still on-going, the military drills will most likely be conducted as a show of force. But they will be less than four years ago as a consequence of Russia’s military resources still tied up in Ukraine.”
T-90 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
“If the war is still at its current level of action any military drills will proceed without incident,” he concluded.
“But one must remember that Lukashenko was completely aware of how his territory would be used to support this 2022 invasion. But now he will try to now pretend to be the best candidate to be a neutral mediator.
“The West needs to remember this when he now suggests that peace talks between Ukraine and Russia should take place in Minsk. He is an expert in trying to cynically and self-promotionally ‘sit in two chairs at the same time’ and is trying to do it again.
Russian main battle tank T-90M Proryv destroyed by Ukrainian Armed Forces is seen near the village of Staryi Saltiv, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine continues, in Kharkiv region, Ukraine May 9, 2022. Picture taken May 9, 2022. REUTERS/Vitalii Hnidyi.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
