China Claims It Can Track F-35: The Air Force’s Biggest Nightmare Comes True?

Summary and Key Points: China claims its advanced BeiDou satellite constellation could track and target America’s stealthy F-35 fighters by detecting their exhaust plumes and heat signatures.

-BeiDou, paired with high-tech uncrewed airships carrying sophisticated telescopes and infrared detectors, might spot disturbances caused by stealth aircraft up to 1,110 miles away.

-If true, this would greatly challenge the U.S. Air Force’s strategic advantage, as stealth jets rely on evading detection to penetrate enemy defenses.

-However, China’s bold claims may partly be propaganda, but the U.S. must take seriously Beijing’s developing space-based warfare capabilities, which could dramatically alter future aerial combat scenarios.

Can China Track F-35? 

This is the beginning of a lengthy U.S. trade war with China, and Beijing is looking for ways to gain an advantage. This means a war of rhetoric as neither side wants to back down, and insults are thrown about. The outrageous claims and threats extend to the 21st-century aerial battlefield, where air forces struggle for one-upmanship. That’s why it is noteworthy that the Chinese are boasting about a critical aspect of potential hostilities – whether its military could track and shoot down an F-35—a considerable advantage should conflict arise.

Much Depends on F-35 Stealthiness

The Lightning II is highly stealthy and would lead a Day-One attack against China should war spark.

This ability would mean the fighters could sneak through Chinese air defenses, drop precision-guided bombs, and launch long-range ground strike missiles to eliminate radars, command and control facilities, and surface-to-air missiles. Follow-on attacks could then be executed with B-52s, B-1Bs, and B-2s bomber forces.

Thus, the Americans always assume that the F-35 evades radar successfully. Executing a large aerial set of strikes would not work without this capability.

Space-Based Warfare Is Here 

China thinks it has the technology to track an F-35, and this capability comes from a place you wouldn’t expect—space.

The Chinese want to use their vaunted BeiDou satellite system to make a play for the F-35s that would fly in great numbers during an American strike.

China could get early warning and send its own stealth fighter jets to answer the Lightning IIs before they could reach the mainland.

The Exhaust Plume from the Engine Could Be Tracked

The F-35, like all jets, has an exhaust trail. These plumes can be tracked by satellites. Plus, there is the “disturbance” that the F-35 creates, according to SlashGear.com. This picture is indeed “distorted and muddled,” but the BeiDou can zero in on this anomaly and “see” the F-35 if the Chinese are to be believed. 

The BeiDou satellite system uses an uncrewed airship to float where the F-35 may be targeting. The airship deploys “mercury-cadmium-telluride detectors and 300mm aperture telescopes” to sniff out the F-35, according to the South China Morning Post. This system has a range of 1,110 miles. The BeiDou satellites, working in conjunction with the airship, can detect the jet’s signature and give the F-35 pilots fits.

More About the BeiDou Satellite System

The BeiDou is comprised of 45 networked satellites. They operate in high and medium Earth orbits, and by 2035, BeiDou will have even more low Earth orbit satellites. The satellites were originally only able to scope out East Asia and be the Chinese answer to GPS, but now they have worldwide coverage. This is a formidable constellation, and the Chinese are confident it can create significant advantages during war and peacetime.

While some military analysts have exclaimed that this is the “end of stealth,” it is much too early to make that assertion. The satellite-airship configuration is an interesting feat of engineering, though. Any way an adversary could keep stealth advantages down to a minimum is a technology worth investing in. The satellite constellation and the airship will also improve with time.

Jet Exhaust Generates Substantial Heat that Could Be Sensed

Another way to track the F-35 is the heat released from the jet exhaust. The stealth coatings cool the airframe, but the BeiDou can sense the difference. This practice is a major improvement over previous ways to track stealth airplanes.

Remember, this could all be a propaganda ploy by Beijing to scare the U.S. Air Force. However, the threat of tracking an F-35 is plausible and something Air Force intelligence should be aware of as battle planners create combat scenarios.

I do not doubt that the BeiDou constellation can cover the Earth. The Chinese are adept at space capabilities, but completely rendering an F-35 useless? I’m skeptical. Plus, the claims of the BeiDou system are simply a part of a more extensive academic study released to the public. This could be some braggadocio from Chinese researchers, which would be nothing new.

However, stealth attributes are never guaranteed. This technological development shows that Xi Jinping’s military scientists are constantly looking for ways to improve the tracking of stealth airplanes. The United States must keep in mind that its current level of radar-evading flying could be in danger, and that would give the Chinese a way to mitigate American advantages in the air. That would be something Xi would be proud of.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.