Donald Trump announced his plan for widespread tariffs on April 2, on what he called “Liberation Day.”
The reaction, at least thus far, has been less than positive.
The markets took a plunge, with the Dow dropping 1,600 points and the S&P 500 having its worst day since the COVID crashes of 2020.
Donald Trump and His Tariff Crisis Blow Up In His Face
Market analysts have declared that the numbers of the tariffs make little sense, and some analysts believe that Trump’s advisers may have even used an AI large-language model such as ChatGPT to design the tariffs.
CEOs, even some generally sympathetic to Trump, have given a big thumbs-down to the plan, as the stocks of companies like Apple and Nike have gone into free fall. Supply chains finally restored mostly to normalcy after the pandemic, risk of being disrupted again, as prices soar.
Even some Republican elected officials are resisting the tariffs, with Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) telling reporters that major tariffs have resulted in electoral doom for the GOP in both the 19th and 20th centuries.
There are fears that the policy could cause a recession, if not a depression. World leaders, including in several countries traditionally friendly with the United States, have vowed retaliation. The prime minister of Canada declared that “the system of global trade anchored on the United States, that Canada has relied on since the end of the second World War—a system that, while not perfect, has helped to deliver prosperity to our country for decades—is over.”
Many, many things in the last decade have been called the “end” of Donald Trump as a political force, from the Access Hollywood tape to a pair of impeachments to an actual presidential election defeat. But there’s some talk now that this could really be it for Trump.
The End?
“100%. This could be a risk that ends up ending his presidency,” CNN polling analyst Harry Enten said on TV Thursday. “Americans want, simply put, nothing to do with it, yet Trump decides to keep pushing forward.”
This is not, literally, going to lead to Trump no longer being president.
He was just elected to a four-year term in November, and will be president for nearly four more years.
He’s also not constitutionally able to run for another term as president, so reelection is also not a consideration.
The Worst Case Scenario
But the tariffs, if they lead to a prolonged economic shock and downturn, could come to define Trump’s second presidency in a bad way.
Trump came back into office in large part because of continuing inflation and consumers’ dissatisfaction with high prices. Upon coming into office, Trump has taken an action that may very well cause consumer prices to go even higher.
A prolonged recession would lead Trump to become unpopular, for other Republicans to run away from Trump, leading to a midterm election wipeout, and ultimately a major wound to Trump’s legacy.
And that’s because if the tariffs lead directly to a recession, it will unquestionably be tied to actions Trump took himself. Presidents like to blame recessions on their predecessors in office, but there’s no way to blame Joe Biden for a recession that would result from Trump’s extreme trade policy.
Can Trump Crawl Out of This?
Of course, if the Trump era has taught us anything, it’s that Trump’s political moment isn’t necessarily over just because it looks like it is. Trump’s base has never deserted him, and it’s not likely to start doing so now.
Donald Trump speaking at CPAC 2011 in Washington, D.C.
Maybe, somehow, the tariffs work. Maybe Trump gives up on them or reaches deals with different countries to mitigate them, and economic disaster is diverted. Perhaps some other calamity happens — war, pandemic, or something unforeseen — that takes over widespread attention and renders the tariffs an afterthought.
But more likely, the tariffs end up as a hole that Trump will spend the rest of his presidency trying to dig out of.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
