Floating Coffins? Why We’re Worried About U.S. Navy Aircraft Carriers

Key Points: Since displacing the battleship in WWII due to superior aircraft range, the US aircraft carrier has been central to global power projection, disaster relief, and potential sea control operations, notably against China’s reliance on maritime imports.

-However, its dominance faces growing challenges from submarines, drone swarms, and hypersonic anti-ship missiles like China’s DF-21D “carrier killer,” forcing carriers further from shore.

-While countermeasures like the MQ-25 refueling drone extend aircraft reach, the vulnerability of large supercarriers prompts consideration of diversifying with more numerous, smaller “lightning carriers.”

-The carrier remains crucial, but adaptation is key to its future relevance.

The Aircraft Carrier on the Brink?

The aircraft carrier came to prominence during World War Two (WWII) in what could be seen as a coup in naval strategy. This significant development displaced the battleship as the centerpiece of any naval task force or fleet, as the mighty battleship had been the most important and powerful vessel to ply the seas since cannons became a standard naval armament. 

In terms of capabilities, one of the primary deciding factors in this historic changing of the guard was range. Specifically looking at WWII, the fearsome 16-inch main guns of an Iowa-class battleship could fire a nine-projectile broadside at a range of 24 miles. 

These massive guns fired a Mark 8, 2,700 lb. armor-piercing round (capable of smashing through 30 feet of reinforced concrete). Additionally, they could fire the Mark 13, 1,900 lb. high-explosive round, transforming a neatly deployed enemy formation into a red mess resembling a Jackson Pollock painting. 

Contrast this with the Essex-class carrier, the most widely produced heavy carrier of the war. A total of 24 were manufactured. This vessel could accommodate 90-100 aircraft, with 36 fighters, primarily F6F Hellcats. 

Apart from the remainder of a carrier’s compliment, a single Hellcat could carry 4,000 lbs. of ordnance and had a range of 1,530 miles. Just the Hellcats alone could vastly outstrip a battleship in the amount of ordnance that could be put on target and at a much greater distance. 

America’s Carriers: Time to Say Goodbye or Double Down? 

Since WWII, the aircraft carrier has been a staple of United States military combat operations in distant waters. These floating airbases, with a crew of approximately 5,000 sailors and Marines, provide unique strike options for the president. According to the US Naval Institute, the Nimitz and Ford-class carriers have the capability to “… generate up to 125 strike sorties per day at surge rates and engage up to six precision aimpoints per sortie.” 

The amount of destruction that aircraft carriers (and accompanying vessels) can rain down on a target defies the imagination. It is no surprise, then, that the presence of a carrier in any given region provides assurance to an ally and puts an enemy on notice. 

In addition to kinetic strikes on hostile enemy targets, a carrier has the incredible ability to perform humanitarian and disaster relief operations. These floating airbases quickly transport vital aid supplies to a desperate population that a natural disaster has ravaged. 

Such a mission was the case when the USS George Washington commenced relief operations off the coast of the Philippines following Hurricane Haiyan on November 14, 2013. The Hurricane, which generated winds of up to 200 miles per hour and gusts of up to 225 miles per hour, affected nine out of the 17 regions in the Philippines. 

As stated by Joint Forces Quarterly:

“With over $86 million in total US assistance, the US military response efforts comprised more than 13,400 military personnel, 66 aircraft, and 12 naval vessels, which delivered over 2,495 tons of relief supplies and evacuated more than 21,000 people. More than 1,300 flights were completed in support of the relief effort, delivering goods and services to approximately 450 sites.”

Some Factors that have put the Carrier Under Threat

Commentators, particularly recently, have brought up the unsettling possibility of a US aircraft carrier being crippled or sunk by a hostile actor. An American carrier has not been lost since WWII. While the possibility does exist, it would be no easy feat, yet underestimating your enemies is the height of foolishness and arrogance. 

This reality was brought to center stage in 2006 when a Chinese Song-class submarine managed to penetrate the defensive perimeter of the USS Kitty Hawk Carrier Strike Group. The Chinese sub surfaced within range to hypothetically launch a salvo of torpedoes. Another similar instance occurred in 2015 with the USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Group. 

While submarines have been an effective menace to surface vessels since the First World War, hypersonic missiles have raised eyebrows, generated copious headlines and official reports, and no doubt caused some worry within the surface fleet. 

What makes a hypersonic missile particularly dangerous is not only its Mach 5-plus speed but also its ability to maneuver at such incredible speeds. Its speed and maneuverability make such a missile difficult to detect, track, and intercept. By the time there is a confirmation as to such a weapon’s incoming, it may be too late to deploy countermeasures. 

One such weapon China has already deployed is the DF-21D, a medium-range ballistic missile dubbed the “carrier killer.” According to Air Force Magazine, this missile has a range of between 1,035 to 1,726 miles. The warhead is considered powerful enough to, at the very least, inflict “mission-kill” damage upon a carrier, meaning the resulting damage is so severe that it is unable to conduct flight operations. These weapons are at the heart of China’s A2AD strategy, their plan to keep American carriers at a great distance.

Then there is the issue of drones. As witnessed in Ukraine, drones have become a modern staple of warfare. These systems are cheap compared to fighter aircraft or large surface vessels; they are unmanned, meaning their loss is of no concern and can be rapidly replaced. There is some concern that if enough drones are used in a combined attack, they may overwhelm the air defenses of a carrier strike group and perhaps achieve “mission kill.”

Is the Era of the Carrier Coming to a Close?

If a carrier group is forced to remain outside the maximum range of weapons like the DF-21D, the Navy may opt to utilize refueling drones, such as the MQ-25 Stingray. According to the Fleet Reserve Association:

“The MQ-25 is powered by a Rolls-Royce AE 3007N turbofan engine delivering 10,000 pounds of thrust. It will have the capacity to carry 15,000 pounds of fuel to supply four to six aircraft at a range of 500 nautical miles.”

An asset, such as the MQ-25, could extend the range of carrier-based aircraft into China’s A2AD zone. This scenario assumes China’s radar and communications network would remain intact during any confrontation’s opening hours.

Beyond a direct confrontation with China, America’s carrier groups will continue to ply the waters of the marine superhighway leading to China, e.g., the Indian Ocean, which feeds into the narrow waterway of the Strait of Malacca. Much of China’s raw materials are sourced from abroad, particularly from Africa, and the transporting vessels must traverse the above waterways on their way to China. The latter depends on an unencumbered flow of raw materials into the mainland to supply the Chinese industrial base.

Aircraft Carrier U.S. Navy. Image Credit: U.S. Navy

Specifically, 86.1% of China’s bauxite requirements (for aluminum production) are met via imports. Of this, 70% is supplied by Guinea. The Democratic Republic of Congo is China’s primary supplier of cobalt imports, providing over 70% of the global supply critical for batteries and electronics. China also imports 50% of its crude oil from Middle East Suppliers, and three-quarters of seaborne iron ore is shipped to China.

China must import one-third of its food for sustenance. Specifically, its imports of cereals and cereal flour have increased fivefold, from 13.9 million tons in 2012 to 65.4 million tons. Latin America supplies nearly one-third of China’s food imports, primarily soybeans, coffee, sugarcane, cherries, shrimp, beef, and fishmeal.

This demonstrates Beijing’s heavy reliance on the outside world for its raw materials and food supply. For all of this, strategic waterways are the key vector for transporting cargo to China. In a future conflict scenario, the US Navy and its Carrier Strike Groups will be instrumental in performing sea control and denial operations for China’s merchant fleets. With its vital flow of inbound raw materials cut off, the Chinese Communist Party’s war effort cannot succeed. China’s supply chain is not talked about nearly enough.

A Future for America’s Carriers

It is perhaps likely that the sunset of the aircraft carrier is upon us. While this may be true, the carrier remains a crucial, useful tool for military and humanitarian operations. The ability of an aircraft carrier and its attending vessels to deliver relief supplies in vast quantities to remote and severely affected areas will remain a key capability. 

In combat scenarios, the Carrier Strike Group will remain a potent delivery mechanism for command and control, close air support, and strike missions on enemy infrastructure. As outlined above, the ability of a Carrier Strike Group to perform sea control and denial operations will also remain a crucial asset when confronting a belligerent state. 

Going forward, it is clear that the American supercarrier, which displaces 100,000 tons, is a very large target. While they are not by any means easy to sink, they are still a massive investment in terms of lives, capabilities, and funding. If one were to be lost, it would be a gut punch the likes of which has not been experienced in well over a generation.

The idea of lightning carriers has been put forward to answer such a dilemma. This would see the production and deployment of more numerous medium-sized carriers. Increasing the production of the America-class helicopter carrier, purpose-built for carrier operations rather than amphibious assault and support, is necessary for increased protection. 

Such carriers could be produced at a much higher rate, giving the US the ability to spread out its naval aviation assets and create more strike groups. This would create a dilemma for enemy planners. The added benefit would be the Navy’s ability to be in more places and conduct more operations, be it combat, partner state training, or humanitarian operations. 

Building massive, Super Star Destroyer Esque floating airbases that are too big to go loose may no longer be viable if hypersonic weapons, drones, and attack submarines proliferate. Diversifying our assets may be the best bet.

Author Biography: Christian P. Martin

Christian P. Martin is a Michigan-based writer; he earned a Master’s degree in Defense & Strategic Studies (Summa cum laude) from the University of Texas, El Paso. Currently, he is a research assistant at the Asia Pacific Security Innovation Forum. Concerning writing, he has published several dozen articles in places like Simple Flying, SOFREP, SOF News, and The Collector.