Summary and Key Points: Speculation is growing that Russia might export its Su-57 stealth fighter jet, particularly after a recent refueling stop in Iran, hinting at possible Iranian interest.
-Such an acquisition could significantly impact Middle East security dynamics, prompting concern from Israel, the Pentagon, and allied nations.
-However, doubts remain about Russia’s capacity to produce the Su-57 in sufficient numbers to represent a genuine threat, especially compared to the abundant U.S. and NATO-operated F-35 fleets.
-Moreover, questions linger about the Su-57’s technological sophistication and networking capabilities.
-Despite uncertainties, a potential Iranian acquisition would undoubtedly intensify geopolitical tensions and regional defense strategies.
Russia’s Su-57 Fighter Jet Lands in Iran: Is Tehran About to Get Stealth Jets?
For many months now, speculation has continued that Russia will seek to export its Su-57 fifth-generation stealth fighter jet. Recent reports suggest that a Russian Su-57 stopped in Iran for refueling on its way back from the Aero India Airshow.
A video posted on months back on X shows the Su-57 moving along a runway, with the post’s accompanying text stating that the aircraft stopped at the Iranian Air Force’s 9th Tactical Fighter Base in Bandar Abbas, something confirmed by multiple news reports.
An Iranian Su-57 Felon?
Surely such an occurrence would raise new questions about whether Iran might actually acquire the jet, a development that could alter the balance of power in the Middle East.
Israel is certain to take notice of this potential transaction, and an Iranian air force able to employ fifth-generation fighter aircraft would doubtless generate reaction at the Pentagon, as well as in other countries concerned about Iran’s history of aggression and efforts to support terrorism.
A jet stopping for fuel does not necessarily indicate any Iranian interest in acquiring the aircraft, but the report does not come in isolation—there has been speculation to this effect for quite some time.
One might think that Russia would diminish its standing in the world as an authoritative and respected power by making such a sale, but global perceptions of Russia have likely already fallen to a very large degree.
Though it is certain that selling the Su-57 to Iran would introduce an entirely new dimension to global concerns about Russia, the Kremlin has already recruited and used North Korean soldiers in its ongoing war with Ukraine.
A Real Fighter Jet Threat: But Su-57 Felon Has a Math Problem
There are several critical variables to keep in mind. The first and perhaps most obvious question would relate to force size and production capacity. Russia itself operates at a substantial deficit in the realm of fifth-generation aircraft. It has had little enough success scaling production of the Su-57 for its own fleet.
Russia has for years been working toward implementing a contract to build roughly 75 new Su-57s for its own forces—Russia’s Tass news agency says the country plans to acquire 76 of them over the next five years—but it is not clear where that effort stands.
The Su-57 may incorporate advanced technology capable of rivaling the F-35 or other fifth-generation aircraft, but claims to that effect have in no way been verified. Regardless, Russia simply does not have enough of them to pose a large-scale threat in the event of a major war. The exact number of operational Su-57s is hard to discern with precision, but numerous public reports suggest Russia has somewhere between 15 and 29 operational Su-57 Felons.
The problem with this is that a force of 76 Su-57s, which may or may not come to exist in the coming years, would be woefully insufficient to challenge NATO member-states or other European countries armed with F-35s.
The U.S. military on its own already operates about 630 F-35s, according to a Government Accountability Report in 2024. This means the U.S. Air Force and Navy could together attack Iran, or even Russia, with hundreds of F-35s spread across a wide operational envelope.
By 2030, Lockheed Martin estimates there will likely be as many as 600 F-35s across the European continent.
More Math Problems: The Problem Enough Su-57s?
Should Iran actually acquire the Su-57, it would face a similar numbers deficit and arguably be ill-equipped to match Israel or the U.S. in the air—a tactical reality that does much to mitigate concerns about the extent of a future Iranian fifth-generation threat.
The Su-57 threat is nonetheless quite real, provided Russia can actually pruduce them on a large scale. Another variable in measuring the threat is, well, the Su-57 itself—there are a number of unanswered questions about its sensing and data-networking capabilities.
Should the Su-57 operate with a fleet-wide data link such as the F-35’s Multifunction Advanced Data Link, a multi-national fleet of Su-57s could in theory challenge formations of networked F-35s, at least on a small scale.
The degree of this threat would depend largely on the range and sensitivity of the aircraft’s sensors and targeting technology, its mission systems, and its relative ability to destroy aircraft from stand-off distances.
The F-35 has already shown these capabilities, and the actual extent to which a Su-57 could threaten or challenge an F-35 remains a mystery.
Su-57 Felon in the Sky: The Photos
Su-57 stealth fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Russia’s Su-57 Stealth Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Su-57. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Su-57 Felon Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
About the Author: Kris Osborn
Kris Osborn is the Military Technology Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
