According to reports from late last year, Taiwan may soon buy a U.S. weapons package worth more than $15 billion. The proposed procurement is to help the country withstand the continual encirclement exercises and regular harassment of the island nation by China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and Navy (PLAN) forces.
The purchase is also meant to demonstrate to U.S. President Donald Trump that the country is serious about defending itself against the People’s Republic of China.
“Taiwan is thinking about a package to show that they are serious,” one former Trump administration official told the Financial Times. This is why Taipei is looking at making such a major acquisition, instead of its standard, moderately sized procurement.
According to a Financial Times story published just after the U.S. presidential election last November, the weapons package could include 60 F-35A fighter jets, four advanced versions of the E-2 Hawkeye airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft, 10 used U.S. naval vessels, and 400 interceptor/effector missiles for Taiwan’s Patriot air and missile-defense batteries.
Other sources separately told the UK publication that the Republic of China might request Lockheed Martin’s Aegis Ashore Combat System, which intercepts and destroys incoming missiles at longer ranges than the Patriot. In the process, it uses satellites to detect and destroy missile launches—this is how it can support the longer intercept ranges.
PRC Invasion Coming by 2027: F-35 Time?
However, in a statement to Reuters at around the same time, the Taiwanese government denied engaging in renewed arms-sales talks with the U.S.
“There has been a period of consolidation and discussion between Taiwan and the United States on military needs, but there is no new stage of discussion at this time,” one Taiwanese source said. But a senior Taiwanese national security official separately told the FT that informal discussions had already begun with Trump’s team, even in advance of his inauguration.
U.S. national security experts believe China, which has long claimed Taiwan as part of its territory, will be ready to invade the island, which operates as a democracy rather than a Communist dictatorship like the mainland, by 2027.
There are many different invasion scenarios predicted, but the PLA would likely begin an attack by targeting Taiwanese military installations, and major U.S. military facilities in the region, with missile strikes. China would then likely dispatch thousands of drones to perform battle damage assessment and collect targeting data for a wave of second-order missile attacks.
Why The F-35 is Not The Answer
The F-35 is a highly advanced, stealthy fighter jet that would present more of a challenge to the latest PLAAF fighters, such as the Chengdu J-20.
It could be an ideal aircraft to defend Taiwan against China. However, procuring and operating the F-35 poses numerous challenges, and these would likely overwhelm Taiwan’s manpower and its budget requirements.
High costs do not only present an obstacle to acquiring the aircraft. Operating and maintenance costs are also high, and the aircraft suffers from perennial technical glitches. And given the general battle plan that the PLA is expected to execute to take the island, the F-35 would be highly vulnerable to being destroyed on the ground before it could even take off. If this happened, it would represent an incredible waste of resources.
Taiwan’s Air Force also already operates their own indigenously built F-CK-1 Ching kuo fighter, a batch of F-16s acquired in the 1990s, and newer F-16V models, which are now beginning to be delivered. With so many different aircraft types already in service, the addition of another highly advanced fighter might in fact be more than the country’s air forces could support.
F-35 Photo Essay
An F-35A Lightning II soars over Hill Air Force Base during a demonstration practice Jan. 10, 2020, at Hill AFB, Utah. The F-35 Demo Team is scheduled to perform at 22 airshows during the 2020 season. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Alexander Cook)
A U.S. Air Force F-35 Lightning II approaches a U.S. Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker over the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, July 22, 2020. The F-35 Lightning II is an agile, versatile, high-performance, multirole fighter that combines stealth, sensor fusion and unprecedented situational awareness. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Duncan C. Bevan)
U.S. Navy Aviation Boatswain’s Mate (Handling) 3rd Class Nicolas Fareri launches a U.S. Marine Corps F-35B Lightning II aircraft with Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 121 off the amphibious assault carrier USS Tripoli (LHA 7) during Valiant Shield 2022 (VS22), June 13, 2022. Exercises such as Valiant Shield allows the Indo-Pacific Command Joint Task Force the opportunity to integrate forces from all branches of service to conduct long-range, precise, lethal, and overwhelming multi-axis, multi-domain effects that demonstrate the strength and versatility of the Joint Task Force and our commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Jackson Ricker)
U.S. Air Force Major Kristin “BEO” Wolfe, F-35A Lightning ll Demonstration Team pilot and commander, flies during sunset over Mathers Airport, Calif., Sept. 24th, 2021, at the California Capital Airshow. The team consists of approximately 15 total Airmen to include the pilot and commander, pilot safety officers, superintendent, team chief, maintenance Airmen, aircrew flight equipment specialists, and public affairs personnel. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Thomas Barley)
U.S. Air Force Maj. Kristin “BEO” Wolfe, F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team pilot and commander, flies during the 2021 Reno Air Races, Reno, Nev., Sept. 18, 2021. The 2021 Reno Air Races featured performances from the U.S. Air Force F-35A Demo Team and the U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds. (U.S. Air Force photo by Capt. Kip Sumner)
Canada F-35. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
Jim
April 17, 2025 at 9:10 pm
Trump doesn’t have the cajones to do what should be done.
Cut a deal.
A date certain for Taiwan being reunified with China.
China relinquishes all claims in the South China Sea.
Sources intimate Xi will do this deal.
And we can move on to a lowered tension East Asia.
And rational trade deals with China which take into account malign practices which everybody knows China engages in… subsidies to take over markets and so forth.
China will deal on this too if done in an effective, practical, often low-key manner.
Let people save face on both sides of the relationship.
China will not be bullied by Trump or anybody.
Nobody wins in a war over Taiwan.
Frankly, China is much more important than Taiwan.
That’s what we should focus on… a positive diplomatic & economic relationship with China over time.
David Chang
April 18, 2025 at 9:55 am
God blesses people in world.
Thanks Mr. Johnson for this question.
According to the One China Policy and the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States should provide defensive weapons to the Republic of China.
However, the F-35 is not a defensive weapon, nor is it a necessary weapon for the hedgehog strategy. Moreover, we should have enough equipment of the hedgehog strategy. But the Taipei authorities do not want to purchase enough defense weapons and equipment with the limited defense budget to implement the correct defense strategy.
If the Taipei authorities continue to promote a wrong defense strategy, they will not defeat the PLA.
Their wrong strategy announced in the “National Defense Report” issued in 2022 was “resolute defense and multi-domain deterrence.” The wrong tactics they announced were “reject the enemy on the other side, attack the enemy at sea, destroy the enemy at the water’s edge, and annihilate the enemy on the beach.”
The Taipei authorities’ wrong strategy makes strategy problems of the United States, and this is a big problem President Trump will have to deal with.
God blesses people in America.
Jim
April 18, 2025 at 10:07 am
Addendum: to sweeten the pot, China should agree to settle all border claims with India in India’s favor where evidence supports it.
This broadens the agreement to include India. Why? Because China needs to settle its border issues with India, and this demonstrates the benefit for India to be friendly with the United States and we acknowledge the importance of border issues between India and China.
No more “moving the line” for China in the “ceiling of the World” in the Himalayas, as they have been won’t to do.
Not only would this promote friendship with India, it could set the stage for good relations with other countries bordering China.
So, we settle a thorny issue with China, but also add a positive to our diplomatic relationship with India. And, possibly other countries as well.
Believe it or not, by confirming Taiwan is part of China, the U. S. also acts to contain China as well…
… and makes the United States stronger.
I’m sorry about the Taiwanese who want independence, but this is power politics and Taiwan ain’t worth a hill of beans compared to China.
The last thing the United States wants to deal with is an embittered & sullen China ready to strike at the U. S. or our friends where possible for the rest of the 21st Century.
It would be a strategic mistake to ensure the enmity of China for the foreseeable future.
David Chang
April 18, 2025 at 11:09 am
God blesses people in world.
Don’t feel sorry for people who want independence of the Taiwan Province of the Republic of China, because they violate Ten Commandments, they worship democracy and science, they believe socialism and evolution and liberation theology. Their thought is the same as Nazi and Communist. Their predecessors were the Taiwan Communist Party, who cooperated with Mao Zedong and others under the orders of Moscow.
In this China civil war, they have abandoned the people in Kinmen and Matsu Islands of Fujian Province of the Republic of China, as the same as they did 130 years ago when they fought against the Japan Socialism Army, and have caused the people in Kinmen and Matsu Islands to resent the people in Taiwan Province of the republic of China.
God blesses people in America.
Michael
April 23, 2025 at 5:24 am
Dzhim, why go through all that trouble to invade a relatively small island that was never part of communist China?
China has real claims on the vast north, areas lost in 1860 to imperial russia. Don’t forget that Chinese maps from the 13th century show the area around Vladivostok as Yongmingcheng. The port itself is still called Hǎishēnwǎi.
The temporary annexation of Amur and Outer Manchuria will come to an end faster than you think.