Regarding fighter jet production, one aspect that often gets overlooked is economic development. Countries with a deep defense industrial base can sustain local economies by creating high-paying advanced manufacturing jobs in the military sector.
I once wrote a book partially on how defense spending affects employment in the United States, and I found out that states in the “gun belt” have more jobs that are related to the size of military budgets. Without such defense hardware production lines, there is quite a negative economic impact.
Indeed, Canada’s F-35 call could come down to just a simple word: money
What’s the Situation on Canada and F-35?
Canada had agreed earlier to purchase 88 F-35 stealth fighters from the United States, but this deal was in jeopardy. Prime Minister Mark Carney is reconsidering the accord, and now Canada may not buy the entire batch. Funds for 16 F-35s have already been allocated to Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer of the Lightning II. However, these could be cancelled too if Carney decides to nix the Americans.
The F-35 Has a Significant Economic Impact
The Joint Strike Fighter is integral to Canada’s overall employment level and GDP growth. Canada is part of the Lightning II’s global supply chain; losing the F-35 would hurt the Canadian economy. OMX Data Analytics conducted an economic study on the F-35’s effect on the country’s defense industrial base, and it made the following calculations.
The production impact from 2007 to 2019 for the F-35 was worth $2.4 billion. There were 1,418 jobs sustained or created. From 2007 to 2046, this contract will have a production impact of $11.7 billion and keep 2,525 Canadians employed. From 2026 to 2058, when the first F-35s arrive from the United States, Canada will enjoy a positive impact on GDP of $5.1 billion and 1,674 jobs sustained.
The Entire Country Would Feel the Pain
The F-35 has an economic impact in all regions of the country – Ontario, Quebec, plus the Western and Atlantic regions. The jobs include careers in electronics, aerospace engineering, systems design, advanced machinery, communications, and avionics. Thirty-seven percent of the factories are small and medium enterprises. This manufacturing bloc is extensive, and provincial governments are likely to remind Carney that the local economies could not afford to lose the F-35 contract.
These are significant numbers that President Donald Trump and perhaps Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will remind the Canadians in what will likely be negotiations under the rubric of “fighter plane diplomacy.” Carney is sure to examine these figures and may reconsider canceling the deal.
Canada’s Economy Is Struggling Already
The Canadian economy is not that healthy. Projected GDP growth in 2025 is only around 1.25 percent. The unemployment rate is forecasted to be as high as 7 percent. With Trump’s trade war and U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, these statistics may get worse.
Carney is an economist who was educated at Harvard and Oxford. He was also the Governor of the Bank of Canada. Carney knows the current GDP and jobs numbers by heart, and if he is to have a successful tenure as prime minister, he must improve the Canadian economy with better employment and GDP growth. Canada could easily slip into a recession, and losing the F-35 production and supply chain would hurt these efforts.
What About Choosing Another Airplane?
Carney has another option to mitigate the negative economic impacts of the F-35 cancellation. Another manufacturer besides Lockheed Martin is competing for Canada’s hearts and minds. Sweden’s Saab has offered the JAS 39 Gripen fighter.
This airplane has many redeeming features and is popular with some international customers. Sweden and Saab have provided the opportunity for Canada to manufacture the Gripen in Canada and produce spare parts and other components. It is unclear how many jobs would be created by Saab granting Canada a manufacturing license, but this could allow many workers to have high-paying positions, similar to what the F-35 creates.
Carney will ask his economists to conduct another production impact report that could compare and contrast the F-35 supply chain jobs with the JAS 39 potential plant. If the Saab facility employed over 2,000 people, it may be worth examining whether the Gripen could fill the military need.
The prime minister will likely get an earful from Trump and Hegseth. The F-35 is manufactured in Fort Worth, Texas, and has a substantial economic impact on that city and on suppliers around the country. Eighty-eight airplanes are a significant number and would keep the plant busy. A batch of 16 fighters may have already been built for Canada. Carney could take those and then choose the Gripen to replace the aging CF-18 Hornet fighter, which must retire.
Israeli Air Force F-35I Adir stealth multi-role fighter.
A Lockheed Martin Corp’s F-35C Joint Strike Fighter is shown on the deck of the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier after making the plane’s first ever carrier landing using its tailhook system, off the coast of California, November 3, 2014.
A U.S. Air Force F-35 Lightning II aircraft assigned to the 34th Fighter Squadron receives fuel from a KC-10 Extender aircraft over Poland, February 24, 2022. U.S. Air Force/Senior Airman Joseph Barron
Canada has a tough choice to make. There are military necessities that must be balanced with economic impact. There is no room to lose jobs with a recession around the corner and high unemployment already. The Trump trade war could damage the economy even further. The Canadian defense industrial base must be nurtured, and whichever airplane the country chooses for its go-to fighter must keep people employed and the local economies boosted.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
Michael
May 5, 2025 at 3:10 pm
” Canada has a tough choice to make. There are military necessities that must be balanced with economic impact.”
When Canada opted for 88 planes, did they know that the airtime/groundtime ratio would be so dismal? What was the original estimate? 1/3 grounded and 2/3 active? 1/4 grounded and 3/4 active? 1/5 grounded and 4/5 active?
Let’s make a really conservative guesstimate, and suppose that the original estimate was 1/3 grounded and 2/3 active. That means Canada expected to have no less than 59 planes on active duty at any given time.
With something like 1/3 in active duty and 2/3 of the fleet in varying degrees of service and overhaul (according to Congressional hearings) Canada would need to buy not 88 planes, but 176 (!) planes in order to have 59 on active duty.
Frankly, those numbers are kind of ridiculous. I don’t think any of the authors here would accept getting half (or less!!) of the product the thought they bought.
”You know, I really like the cars you sell, but you know, turns out there are only two seats in them instead of the four in the pictures in the brochure you showed me when I signed the contract. Me and the missus would have to buy two of them to take the kids to school and vacations would be a bit cumbersome… So I don’t know, maybe we’ll just go with one of those foreign imports from the dealership across town.”
Vynn Doyle-Davidson
May 7, 2025 at 10:04 pm
Thanks for your insiteful and well researched commentary which I really enjoyed the content. As revealed by you there does exist an option to the American F-35’s being the Swedish offering(apologies) for forgetting the corresponding model designation.
There presently is in place an economic upside in acquiring the F-35’s including skilled job creation in the areas of supply chain management, avionics and manufacturing supporting small to mid sized Companies.
However the Swedish proposition, when or if Carney appoints a commission to complete cost and trickle down manufacturing, supply chain management and also high paying jobs across the country.
If memory serves correct, the Swedish offering is almost half the cost of the F-35’S, Canada will not be hostage in regards to spares ( until they are attached to the registered aircraft), software upgrades could be held back etc due to the prevailing economic and political disturbance are ratified.
Thanks again
James
May 7, 2025 at 10:15 pm
The world doesn’t hinge on this sale. Canada should buy the Gripen. It’s a nice little Gen 4 fighter for a Gen 4 country and they can probably keep the little bird flying for another 50 years. They’re military is no longer a serious force anyway. They’re in need of everything from tanks, artillery, manpower, infrastructure and everything in between. I’m not sure they’re ready for the sophistication and all of the needs of the F35 anyway. And with all of the other needs of their military, which Carney will never ever provide, theirs no need to put a Ferrari in the garage when a Toyota will do just fine.
Nelson
May 8, 2025 at 1:30 pm
Hey james..tell us you work for Lockheed without telling us
Canadians are not stupid, and were tired of you people trying so desperately to try and convince us that your shitbox so called invisible f35 is the ferrari of choice.
In a dog fight your little f35 vs. A 4th gen grippen would get its tail whipped. So spare us the bullshit and try your 1940s tactics with a 3rd world country.
Krystal cane
May 9, 2025 at 12:46 am
Is the word f-trump?
Krystal cane
May 9, 2025 at 12:47 am
I wouldn’t buy anything from a country that has run by a complete moron aka trump
A Leg
May 9, 2025 at 5:49 am
The F-35 would take 5 hours to do a Cold Lake Patrol. The current f-18s do it in two and a half hours. The F-35 is far too slow! The F-35 cost $250,000 per hour to operate the Saab Jas 38 10,000 per hour. The F-35 would require mid-air refueling on every Patrol! This is very expensive. For every hour of operation of F-35 it needs 5 hours of repair! Griffin has the same virtual reality augmentation helmet when situational awareness as the F-35 but at a fraction of the price but Superior! It’s low radar section allows it to do penetrative strikes A2 rolls. Since we might be able to build a fuselages in Canada it will offer jobs to work with Swedish company! These are not Gen 4 Fighters these are Gen 5 Fighters, stealth is always being chipped away at as far as sensors new radar systems. S400 at 5S 500 systems, the importance of long range missiles like meteor scalp that can be fired at a great range as demonstrated in India Pakistan conflict or Ukraine. Plus drone technology is also key. So keep the cost low and open up other variable options so go with the SAAB aircraft
James
May 9, 2025 at 7:56 am
NELSON – no, I’m not an employee for Lockheed or any other defence manufacturer. I’m just an American that’s fed up with Canada always pinching pennies and not putting in the proper investment into their military. Canada is the unreliable partner and has been for years. So why would we expect you to change your “strategy”. Buy the Gripen, America is not expecting you to add to the fight anyway. Your military is worn down to tier 3, meaning it needs everything. We’ll take care of you, because it takes care of us. And so you know, The F35 will not get into a dogfight with a Gripen. It will shoot it out of the air before the Gripen knows the F35 was even there. Hey, how about Canada builds its own planes? Oh right, you have no capability.
Jim Philip
May 9, 2025 at 11:59 am
Build our own. We have done it before!
But only build a few. The rest of the money would be better spent on lots of drones.
Jet fighters are on the cusp of obsolescence. Like battle tanks are now. Their life in combat is measured in minutes.
A large varied fleet of drones would be much more efficient, and effective.
Johan Smitz
May 9, 2025 at 12:33 pm
The author is yet another non-Canadian who does not get the mainstory in Canada.
Most Canadians now consider the US an enemy. Not a once ally. An enemy. It’s not the tariffs it is the disrespect & threats. We taje them seriously.
Canadian citizens have boycotted the USA from grocery stores to travel. These planes need both physical and digital support from the USA to be functional. Why on earth would we give the US that revenue, unless Trump backs down on everything, says sorry & shines Carney’s shoes?
To be more clear, the most likely invader of Canada is…the USA. Even if you disagree with that assumptions, Canadians don’t. So we put 0 value in the planes having any use, except as a negotitation tool.
The author may know a lot about military procurement, but not about Canadians.
Airframe 1
May 9, 2025 at 12:46 pm
There is no real choice to be made. The F35 should never have been chosen in the first place. From the outset of the original tender, SAAB was the only competitor to meet the original requirements for the manufacturer to build the planes in Canada. The only one! Bowing to pressure from the U.S., the Lightning 2 was chosen. How you can equate low paying supply line jobs to high paying technical manufacturing jobs is a puzzle in itself? However SAAB is not the only supplier Canada can look at. South Korea has come knocking with a list of weapon delivery systems Canada should consider, including their latest submarines. The F35’s are overpriced and will be a constant drain on the Canadian economy, just to be part of the special U.S. party. With both Swedens and South Koreas products, Canada also gets full access to all of the tech and systems control. The U.S. is not the only player in the NATO game.
Airframe 1
May 9, 2025 at 1:29 pm
Reply to James.
Just before you carry on and repeat more of your President’s nonsense, let me inform you of a few things. The vast majority of Canadians aren’t happy with our past governments, regardless of political stripe, dragging their feet on the purchases of necessary equipment and the resulting degradation of our military. The SAAB, while not a 6 gen airframe and has no stealth, doesn’t need to be stealthy. While the F35 can sneak up on a target, the J39 can engage the same target miles away. Sweden has a similar climate to Canada. The J39 is faster, cheaper to maintain and can be done with a minimally trained ground crew. The same applies to refueling and rearming, and has been designed to be done on remote or non existent airfields. With regard to to America not expecting Canada to add anything to the fight. First that shows a difference in the mentality between Americans and Canadians. You always either expect or look for a fight. We don’t. Having said that, it brings up the second thing. If we don’t bring anything to a fight, perhaps you should look up actions by Canadians during both world wars. ( try Vimey Ridge and the Shelts in the Netherlands to start your education) On this 80th anniversary, Canadians are still celebrated and honoured for Liberating the Netherlands. Their children are taught in schools of their sacrifices. The children tend to Canadian graves. Every year, Canada is sent Tulips as a thank you for the sacrifices made. We didn’t just liberate them, we then fed the starving population. Where in the world is the United States honoured like that? You see, part of the Americans problem is that you have been fed the line of America is number 1 for years and you actually believe it. Just to let you know, because the average American has never been more than an hour outside of their hometown, that every other Country in the world believes that they are number one. Check your attitude slick.
James
May 9, 2025 at 2:47 pm
Airframe 1
It’s easy to not think of war when you have no global responsibilities. Who do you think is out there defending the Wests shipping lanes? It’s not Canada. Who brought the Houthi’s to their knees? Not Canada. Who is checking Iran’s nuclear ambitions,? It’s not Canada. Who is checking China and their ambitions? It’s not Canada. I don’t see Carney searching for peace in Ukraine either. So yeah, you enjoy the privileges of freedom without adding anything to it.
As far as where America is honored, you obviously haven’t been to Normandy, Belgium, Bastogne, Salerno, Sicily or any number of WW2 battlefields. You are living on past glories. You could never, ever field an army like that again. You have let it all slip away for free medical care, socialism and green energy nonsense.
I agree that you should buy the Gripen. It is the best choice for a Gen 4 military that won’t properly fund its military.
Like almost all Americans, we had no idea that Canada was such a basket case until Trudeau let it slip to Trump that Canada wouldn’t even be able to exist with real fair trade. Wow! I guess the gig is up and you’ve been outed. The fact that Alberta, and probably others, is seriously considering independence says a lot and it was something none of us in America ever thought was a possibility. I feel like you played us for suckers and yeah, I’m pissed!
Bsalarm
May 9, 2025 at 6:39 pm
I wouldn’t buy a thing from the US. There be some kind of hidden destroy button somewhere in a U.S. base that connects directly to disable your purchase.
Kelly
May 9, 2025 at 7:25 pm
Canada should take the 16 f35, but they are very expensive to fly per hour around 40,000, and very expensive to maintain with only 51% availability.
Canada should then buy 72 gripes to make up the difference in number of jets, the gripes is cheaper per hour and maintenence and has a 97% availability, it’s faster and more manoverble and has stealth and can be fitted with almost any weapons.
The US airforce is going with the f35 and other fighters to back up the f35, this is because the f35 is not a straight fighter, but a strike fighter, this way Canada has a better fighter cover instead of depending on only one aircraft.
Rupiah Mann
May 9, 2025 at 7:26 pm
I find a lot of the article to be extremely biased and focused on the why not the F-35, being an ex airforce survival technician in my opinion neither jets are capable of the mission.
Like the harrier, when you lose propulsion the jet becomes a brick.
Simply put “redundancy” if your mission is to fly over the arctic and the closest rescue assets being over 30 minutes away would you opt for a jet with a single engine? Yes you have an immersion suit, life raft and survival aids in your PSP but in these harsh climates may provide little to no protection.
In essence for the F-35 to complete the mission, I.e a QRA over the arctic. You would also have to scramble a P8A Poseidon or Rescue CC-295 and rescue Helio and likely a tanker
K
May 10, 2025 at 12:10 pm
Having worked for an organization that produced numbers on economic impact and number of jobs created, let me tell you, those numbers are always grossly inflated.
Bob
May 10, 2025 at 2:43 pm
If Canadians want to become Chinese, or European, let them. But when they wake up and realize their way of life is at risk, don’t come crying to us. Of course, if Canada becomes a security threat then they will become the northern US whether they like it or not. Last I checked, guns verses hockey sticks still favors guns.
Airframe 1
May 10, 2025 at 3:36 pm
To James
I know about the monuments that sit their cold alone which no one pays any attention to. Your original question was “ what does Canada bring?” Perhaps, just perhaps, as an American, you could look and listen with an open mind. Nowhere in the world, is any other country, including and especially the U.S., honoured and loved as Canada is in the Netherlands. The fact is that when the Americans ran into stiff resistance there, the Canadians were sent in to get the job done. That’s why their children where named after Canadian soldiers, the children are taught in school all about what Canadians did in battle and after, why the same children tend the Canadian fallen graves. It’s also why every year millions of Tulips are sent to Canada as a thank you. Where does that happen for American fallen? As far as your attitude that the U.S. is a tech world leader, I think that you have been surpassed by China if you haven’t noticed. Canada neither wants or need your next gen stealth plane. It’s not in our nature to sneak around. If we get in a fight we do it loud and proud! The fact is that Canadians prefer to seek a peaceful solution to settle problems. Yours, read American, is a different mindset to our. Elbows up!
Airframe 1
May 10, 2025 at 4:14 pm
Hey James:
While I’m on with Elbows Up, and your on the Americans are number one attitude, let’s take a bit of a closer look at the U.S.’s success rate. War for Independence, U.S. 1. Spanish American war, not so much. American Civil war, can’t call that a win. World War 1, nope didn’t win that on your own. WW 2, nope for the same reason. Korea, nope, the North and South are still at a state of war but in a cease fire and that was an action by the U.N.. Vietnam, we’ll that’s a no brainer, definitely no. Bay of pigs in Cuba, nope. Afghanistan, no, coalition, and no win. Iraq, nope another coalition, no weapons of mass destruction either. Let’s not forget the war of 1812, can’t call that one a win either. You see, Americans seem to like sticking their noses into other peoples business, then making war with them. Unfortunately, they don’t seem to be able to close the deal without getting help. With regard to Vietnam. It’s puzzling to me that America, with all their pride and hoopla they exhibit about their own independence, couldn’t even recognize the desire of the Vietnamese people, after years of successive foreign occupations, wanting their own country free from outside control. Americans are not loved or respected around the world as you may think. Personally, I think that Canada should give your President everything he says he doesn’t need from Canada. No wood, no oil, no natural gas, no electricity, no pot ash, no farm equipment. Let him and the Americans have his tariffs. The Americans ware the ones who pay them. We can and are shifting our sales elsewhere in the world. Cheers! Oh yeah, Elbows up!
Sam
May 10, 2025 at 7:27 pm
1945 is obsessed with the Canadian f35 deal. The f35 is a headache plane, requires more time and dollars outside of the f22 to keep it airborne.Let Canada make it’s own decision and concern your selves with your current dictator and the problems he creates daily.
Gripen is an astounding plane that is fully capable and can perform beside the f35, which is a good plane just terribly expensive to own and operate.
John
May 11, 2025 at 11:09 am
Look into purchasing S Korean stealth jets.