False Debate? Canada Might Never Have Needed the F-35 Fighter

One thing we don’t discuss enough when investigating the future of the F-35 in Canada is the Great White North’s overall defense strategy and how this affects procurement decisions. 

For example, other budget priorities are more important than buying new airplanes. Perhaps the Canadian military doesn’t even need the Lightning II stealth fighter. 

This is because Canada has one main thing going for it regarding homeland security: its location. North America is an ocean away from combat in Europe.

Nobody Is Going to Invade Canada: Why Buy the F-35?

Canada is not likely to be attacked anytime soon.

 Look toward its main ally to the south. Despite belligerent American rhetoric and tariffs that have frustrated Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and his fellow citizens, there is still a high level of peaceful relations between the United States and Canada. Carney and President Donald Trump just met at the White House this week, and while the Canadian said his nation is “not for sale,” the two acted like old chums.

The Canadian Air Force Is Struggling with Readiness Issues 

Canada needs an air force to patrol its borders, and the service branch is struggling. 

An estimated 60 percent of the entire aircraft fleet is out of action. The nation depends on the CF-18 Hornet, which is 45 years old. However, this fighter jet is being upgraded to last much longer. 

Perhaps Carney may just cancel the 88 F-35 purchase agreement and buy no new airplanes, even though the JAS 39 Gripen and Eurofighter Typhoon have been mentioned as sales targets for the Canadian air force.

The Prime Minister May Have Different Ideas for Canada’s Military

Carney is acquitting himself well in foreign policy statecraft for a politician more associated with global finance than defense. 

He is playing hard to get, and he may want to take the billions of Canadian dollars saved by canceling the F-35 deal and plow it into domestic spending to boost the economy.

The Canadian economy is struggling, and Trump’s tariffs will likely worsen things. No more than one to two percent GDP growth is forecasted for 2025, and the unemployment rate could get as high as 7 percent.

A New Airplane Can Sustain or Create Jobs

However, the F-35 program creates several billion in economic impact and employs between 1,000 and 2,000 people in Canada.

If the Canadians buy Sweden’s Gripen, Saab may allow some JAS 39 jets to be built in the Great White North. If not a complete assembly, some parts and components could be produced in Ottawa or other provinces.

Carney is quite familiar with Canada’s economic and financial struggles, so the defense industrial base will weigh on his mind as he ponders whether to buy new fighters or crack on with what he has. He may just push this decision into next year. The Trump trade war is going to suck all the oxygen out of his tenure. That is where the real economic pain comes in.

What About NATO?

Canada does have commitments to NATO, and the prime minister mentioned that during the meeting with Trump. Carney believes his country’s loyalty to the alliance is strong. However, if Russia attacked NATO, could Canada respond by deploying forces to assist in the fight? The country’s military does not have an expeditionary force. It may have to depend on deploying special operations forces in Europe and refraining from sending any military hardware.

The Lightning II, Typhoon, or Gripen would undoubtedly help the force posture for a NATO contingency, but not buying these airplanes is always an option. Improving the air force’s readiness overall is more important than replacing the CF-18. The Canadian military could wait for the Hornet to complete the extension program. These airplanes will eventually be ready for modern combat. Flying an older airplane that has been fully upgraded is not the worst choice for Canada. 

The prime minister still has difficult questions to answer. Can his country afford five percent of GDP on defense spending to stay in NATO’s good graces? Canada only spends 1.3 to 1.5 percent of its GDP on the military now. 

Getting to five percent in the coming years would be difficult, if not impossible. If Carney honors the F-35 deal with Lockheed Martin, it will show his interest in spending more. Or could he save funds for other defense programs that protect Canadian borders, like ships and submarines?

Canada must realize that it does not have a deployable military for European requirements. That means homeland defense is the most critical strategic need for the military. If the country just needs air policing, why would it require a stealth fighter? 

Could the F-35 someday be sent to Europe for a fight with Russia? Eighty-eight would give it the numbers to do so, but that contingency. Canada may never require that contingency, but it needs to decide what it wants to accomplish regarding national security. Protecting borders may be more critical than expeditionary capabilities. NATO commitments are a driver in this calculus. 

Canada may decide that the CF-18 fighter is good enough and that the F-35, Gripen, or Eurofighter is unnecessary. Geography plays a significant role in defense strategy, and Canada is safe from attack. That may mean it will never spend over 2 percent of its  GDP on its military. The CF-18 Hornet could be the only fighter jet that Canada needs. 

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfareands two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.