More information has been released in recent days about the F-47, with progress on the program seemingly going as planned. Unfortunately, the U.S. Navy’s future fighter, the F/A-XX, seems to have fallen to the wayside. The future of that project looks uncertain.
According to recent reports, the F/A-XX could see further delays of up to three years. This would be a disaster—the F/A-XX is vital for the Navy’s modernization efforts. A sixth-generation naval fighter is sorely needed to counter the threat posed by China.
F/A-XX. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
More Delays for the F/A-XX?
One of the most significant issues facing the F/A-XX is uncertainty over funding. The program is expected to cost hundreds of billions of dollars over its lifecycle, and internal debates within the Pentagon, Congress, and the White House have delayed the announcement of an award. Some officials have expressed concerns about whether the U.S. defense-industrial base can support such a large and complex program, especially given competing priorities.
Disagreements remain over who should get the contract. The competition started between Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing. However, after Boeing won the F-47 award, Lockheed pulled its bid for the F/A-XX. Before the delay, the Navy had anticipated awarding the engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) contract for the F/A-XX in early 2025. Lawmakers have warned that the rumored three-year delay could effectively cancel the current competition, as pricing and contract terms would expire, necessitating a new bidding process.
Rough Skies Ahead
The U.S. defense-industrial base has been under strain from workforce shortages, supply chain disruptions, and more generally the complexity of modern aerospace manufacturing. Some policymakers worry that the industrial base is not ready to build the F/A-XX alongside the F-47. Building a sixth-generation fighter requires highly specialized skills and infrastructure, and there are concerns about whether any company is able to meet the demands of the F/A-XX program without significant additional investment and long-term commitment.
F-47 Fighter from Boeing. Image Credit: U.S. Air Force Screenshot.
Shown is a graphical artist rendering of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Platform. The rendering highlights the Air Force’s sixth generation fighter, the F-47. The NGAD Platform will bring lethal, next-generation technologies to ensure air superiority for the Joint Force in any conflict. (U.S. Air Force graphic)
Personal preferences are also playing a large part in the discussion surrounding the F/A-XX. Currently, there is a broader strategic debate among senior officials about the future of naval aviation and the role of manned fighters in an era increasingly defined by drones and long-range precision weapons. Some defense officials question whether investing in a new manned fighter is the best use of limited resources. After all, those unmanned systems, as well as advanced munitions such as hypersonic missiles, are rapidly evolving. This indecision has contributed to delays and uncertainty surrounding the program’s future.
Senior officials seem to be in conflict over what to do with the project. The F/A-XX program has become entangled in political debates over defense spending and industrial policy. Lawmakers such as Rep. Ken Calvert have warned that any further delays could leave the Navy “dangerously outmatched” in a conflict with China. However, others argue that rushing into a massive procurement program without fully addressing technical and industrial challenges could lead to cost overruns and performance shortfalls.
Delaying the F/A-XX is a Bad Idea
The Navy’s current fleet of F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and E/A-18G Growlers is aging rapidly. Many of these aircraft are approaching or have exceeded their expected service lives, leading to increased maintenance costs and reduced mission readiness. After decades of service, the frames on the F/A-18s have seen considerable wear and tear. The longer these aged aircraft remain in service, the more costly and more frequent maintenance becomes. The F/A-XX is designed to fill the looming capability gap by providing a modern, survivable, and stealthy platform capable of operating in highly contested environments.
China is Catching Up
The Indo-Pacific region, particularly the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, has become a focal point of strategic competition between the U.S. and China. The Chinese military has made significant advances in anti-access/area denial capabilities, including long-range missiles and advanced radar systems. Additionally, China is catching up fast in next-generation fighter technology. The emergence of the J-36 and J-50 underscores China’s efforts to compete in this field. The F/A-XX is essential to stay ahead of China’s efforts to develop its latest aircraft, as well as to penetrate its sophisticated defenses.
Delaying the F/A-XX would allow China more time to build up and perfect its fleet of fifth-generation and future sixth-generation fighters. While we still don’t know much about the J-36 or the J-50, China has undoubtedly been advancing its aerospace engineering capabilities rapidly, and it certainly has been building fifth-generation fighters such as the J-20 in greater quantities. The F/A-XX is needed in the South China Sea to maintain technological superiority.
J-20 Fighter. Image Credit: Chinese CCTV.
J-20 Fighter from PLAAF China. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
J-20 Fighter. Image Credit: Chinese Internet.
J-20 Stealth Fighter. Image Credit: Industry Handout.
Unlike the Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance program, which focuses on land-based operations, the F/A-XX is specifically tailored for carrier operations. Aircraft carriers remain the most flexible and survivable form of power projection, and the Navy needs a next-generation fighter that can operate effectively from these platforms.
The F/A-XX is expected to have a combat radius exceeding 750 nautical miles, significantly extending the reach of carrier strike groups.
About the Author:
Isaac Seitz, a 19FortyFive Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
