Key Points and Summary – Russia is again promising the Su-75 “Checkmate” will fly in early 2026, after slipping from 2023 to 2024 to 2025.
-Rostec chief Sergey Chemezov and Sukhoi test pilot Sergey Bogdan say a real prototype is on the shop floor and nearing flight tests, and Moscow is touting paper specs like Mach 1.8–2 speed and a 7,400-kg payload.
Su-57 Felon and Su-75 Fighters From Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Su-75 Checkmate Russia Stealth Fighter. Image Credit: UAC.
-Skeptics point to the obvious constraint: money.
-Ukraine war demands, sanctions, and Russia’s slow Su-57 output suggest the Checkmate could remain an airshow mockup longer than advertised.
-With only 44 Su-57s delivered, versus hundreds of J-20s and a thousand F-35s, confidence is thin.
The Su-75 Checkmate vs. Reality: Why Russia Keeps Pushing Back Flight Dates
Back in 1992, country music superstar Hank Williams Jr. recorded a song titled “A Little Less Talk and a Lot More Action.” Coincidentally, that was the year after the Soviet Union collapsed, thus officially ending the Cold War.
Thirty-three years later, the arms industry of the post-communist Russian Federation is still plagued with the woeful inefficiencies one would expect from a communist economic system, thereby failing to live up to Mr. Williams’s musical exhortations.
A prime example is the prospective 5th-generation stealth fighter, the Sukhoi Su-75, AKA T-75 (NATO reporting name “Checkmate;” a departure from NATO’s standard practice of assigning “F” words to adversaries’ fighter planes).
The Russian defense industry has hyped this would-be warbird for the past 4 years through mockups at air shows and photo teasers. Yet the Checkmate has yet to make its maiden flight, thus leaving Western military aviation observers with a feeling of Checkmate chicanery.
Su-75 Checkmate artist rendition.
Su-75 mockup image. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Now the Russians are insisting the fighter will finally fly next year. But one can’t help but wonder if that’s just more empty bluster on the Russkies’ part.
Promises, Promises
The latest & greatest comes to us from Joseph Trevithick of The War Zone (TWZ) in a November 20, 2025, article titled “Russia Insists Su-75 Checkmate Fighter Will Fly Next Year.”
Mr. Trevithick quotes statements from a couple of Russian arms industry officials from this year’s edition of the Dubai Airshow in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), starting with Sergey Chemezov, head of Russia’s state-run defense conglomerate Rostec: “[We’re] still working on development of this aircraft. We need some time to get the real prototype for the test flights … Basically, we are almost at the stage of the testing flights, and in the near future, we will be launching it into production.”
From there, Joseph quotes Sergey Bogdan, Sukhoi’s chief test pilot, who confidently projected that “I think this is the beginning of 2026…The aircraft is already on the shop floor, being finalized, and with certain time plans. Therefore, with God’s help, it should take place soon enough.”
Promises, Promises, Part Deux
Via the 2025 Dubai Airshow teasers, we now also have some updated tech specs and vital stats for the Su-75 (at least on paper):
-A maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) of some 57,320 pounds (26,000 kilograms)
Su-75 Checkmate Stealth Fighter. Image Credit: Russian Government.
-A payload capacity of up to 16,314 pounds (7,400 kilograms) worth of air-to-air and/or air-to-ground munitions on an array of underwing hardpoints, as well as one inside three internal bays
-A max airspeed between Mach 1.8 and Mach 2 with an engine in the 32,000 to 36,000-pound-thrust-class (14,500 to 16,500 kilogram-force).
-An approximately fuselage length of 57 feet, a wingspan of 39 feet
Promises, Promises Prequel
Speaking of the Dubai Airshow (a biennial event), it was at the 2021 edition that Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) officially unveiled the Su-75, which they also dubbed the Lyogkiy Takticheskiy Samolyot (LTS; translated as Light Tactical Aircraft [LTA]).
The unveiling was manifested as a full-scale mockup. Later that year, UAC spokespersons claimed that work on an actual flying prototype was underway. Since then, the plane’s maiden flight window has slipped multiple times, first slated for 2023, then for 2024, and again for 2025.
So, why the holdup?
Problems with those “Promises, Promises”
The short answer: money.
The Su-75 developmental woes are almost certainly due to a shortage of dollars and cents, or more literally, rubles and kopeks.
So much of Russia’s military expenditures (on materiel and manpower alike) are being diverted toward that country’s seemingly never-ending war in Ukraine, which means that currently operational combat aircraft are getting first dibs over experimental warplanes. International sanctions against Moscow aren’t helping either.
And even Russia’s “currently operational combat aircraft” are facing production woes, which in turn portend an even less rosy outlook for experimental fighters like the Su-75. A prime example is Sukhoi’s *other* 5th-generation fighter, i.e., the Su-57 “Felon.”
The Felon actually *has* attained actual production status and operational status to boot, thus giving Russia and UAC alike bragging rights insofar as having proverbial “skin in the game” in the stealth fighter arena along with China’s Chengdu J-20 “Fagin” as well as America’s Lockheed Martin “Skunk Works®” F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II.
However, Su-57 production numbers have been pretty underwhelming thus far, with only 44 planes delivered as of April 2025. Let’s compare and contrast those numbers with the production figures for Chinese and American-made stealth fighters alike:
-J-20: 195 airframes as of 2024
-F-35: Over 1,000 airframes as of January 2024
-F-22: 187 airframes as of 2011 (in other words, despite then-US Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) Bob Gates’s utterly ridiculous decision to kill the Raptor, the existing Raptors still outnumber the existing Felons by a 4.25-to-1 margin)
This doesn’t exactly inspire a fresh dose of confidence in Su-75 production potential. This writer and former U.S. Air Force officer remains skeptical. When it comes to the Checkmate finally taking flight, I’ll believe it when I see it.
About the Author: Christian D. Orr, Defense Expert
Christian D. Orr is a Senior Defense Editor. He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (with a concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He is also the author of the newly published book “Five Decades of a Fabulous Firearm: Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Beretta 92 Pistol Series.”
