This practice by China was supposed to be a strategic masterstroke. In order to enforce Beijing’s flimsy claims of territorial ownership in the First Island Chain and the South China Sea, the Chinese reinforced a network of islands, rocks, seamounts, and reefs to increase the effectiveness of their anti-access/ area denial gambit to keep the United States and its allies down and out in the Indo-Pacific.
Now it looks like these militarized sea terrain features have a problem. The islands might be sinking and could be struck by a natural disaster. Robert T. Wagner of Philippine Strategies takes a closer look at what could be an epic fail by the Chinese.
Surprise, Surprise in the South China Sea
“The truth is these structures face substantial risks from natural hazards prevalent in the region, including seismic-induced liquefaction leading to subsidence and sinking, as well as inundation from super typhoons,” Wagner wrote.
What Are the Militarized Islands?
The Chinese could be in for a shock from Mother Nature that would put their ample investment in money and man-hours to waste. The main installations are located in Fiery Cross Reef, Mischief Reef, and Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands of the South China Sea.
The People’s Republic thought it would be a good idea to beef these up militarily. They now have a network of radars, armed personnel, air strips, and hangars for warplanes.
Chinese Vaunted Naval Strategy Based on Location and Natural Resources
Xi Jinping figured he would carve out strategic waterways in the ocean, where one-third of global trade transits. The islands would allow his country to also take advantage of huge deposits of natural resources – namely, energy and fishing reserves. There could be 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas near the Spratlys, as Wagner pointed out.
Xi to American Allies: Keep Out and Stay Out
Xi believes that China owns the sea within the “Nine-Dash Line,” which encompasses the South China Sea, the West Philippine Sea, and other bodies of water. This is a controversial claim, and many countries dispute it.
“For the past 13 years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has undertaken extensive land reclamation projects in the southern Spratlys, transforming submerged reefs and seamounts into artificial islands totaling over 3,000 acres. These efforts, concentrated on features barely above the waves during extreme high tides, involve dredging coral reefs and depositing sediment to create habitable land,” according to Wagner.
Not Trusting the Science
However, Chinese climatologists, meteorologists, and geologists may not have been consulted before construction. The islands could sink because of shifting plate tectonics and be wiped out by natural disasters. One typhoon could take out construction on an island, and the geology may not be kind to militarized terrain features as sea levels rise due to climate change.
The People’s Liberation Army Navy appears to have little preparation for this eventuality. Any severe storm could wreck all the construction on these rocks and reefs. It is not clear if Xi has a backup plan for when the precious resources he thinks he owns cannot be guarded from the hazards of weather and geological factors.
Some of These Islands Are As Big as Pearl Harbor
The Chinese have expended significant effort that could be at risk. “China’s island-building process involves ‘cutter-suction’ dredgers that excavate coral and sediment from the seabed, pumping it onto reefs to form landmasses. At Fiery Cross Reef, for instance, reclamation created a 274-hectare island with a 3,000-meter [nearly 10,000 feet] runway and a deepwater harbor, while Mischief Reef spans over eight miles in circumference, rivaling Pearl Harbor in scale. Subi Reef features a massive, enclosed harbor and extensive facilities. These sites, built on calcareous sands and coral fragments, are prone to instability because the underlying materials are loosely packed and water-saturated, conditions ideal for liquefaction during seismic events,” Wagner wrote.
Nature Strikes Back
There have also been earthquakes and tsunamis near the Spratlys, and these have been highly damaging to the islands in the past. Then there is the problem of liquefaction, “where ground shaking causes pore pressure buildup, leading to strata failure and subsidence.” This could cause massive ground failure in the Spratlys and jeopardize the entire terrain feature.
Xi Jinping Did Not Foresee the Risks
Xi Jinping should get an earful from his scientists about the risks, but he probably wouldn’t listen. The Chinese dictator is sure that his country owns the rights to militarize and extract oil and gas, no matter what international law says.
Science does not enter into his calculus of decision-making. But Beijing would be disappointed with a natural disaster or erosion of the island they care so much about.
China sometimes outsmarts itself and conducts imperial overreach. Xi may have to learn a powerful lesson that sometimes nature gets in the way of grand strategy. These militarized islands may not be decisive in a war with the United States, and natural disasters are sometime low probability events, but perhaps Xi has made a big mistake with his reclamation efforts.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
