Summary and Key Points: The F-35 Lightning II reportedly came out of Red Flag 2017 with a 20-to-1 kill ratio, killing aggressor F-16s that, in many cases, never knew they had been detected. That is the aircraft working exactly as designed — stealth, sensor fusion, and datalinks producing first look and first shot, with no dogfight at the end. But inside that result, the F-16 pilots found something. In stealth configuration, with everything carried internally, the F-35 has room for only 4 AMRAAM missiles. So the aggressors came at it from multiple axes at once, in numbers, and made it shoot. Once those 4 are gone, the F-35 has two options: leave, or close to within visual range and fight the kind of engagement it was specifically built to avoid.
Yes, the F-35 Can Be Beaten by the F-16 Fighter
At Red Flag 2017, the F-35 Lightning II reportedly achieved a 20:1 kill ratio. On paper, the results are staggering—reinforcing the aircraft’s reputation as a fifth-generation force multiplier. But buried in that success were momentswhene aggressor F-16 pilots managed simulated kills.
The tactic: overwhelm the F-35 with swarms. The results demonstrated that the F-35’s strength in networked BVR combat is real—but also highlighted a vulnerability when missile capacity and geometry are stressed to the breaking point.
What is Red Flag?
Red Flag, hosted at Nellis AFB, is a high-end air combat exercise. Designed to simulate peer conflict, aggressor squadrons are used to replicate advanced adversaries. The exercises are designed to stress tactics, expose weaknesses, and train in contested environments.
Kill ratios in Red Flag are not marketing metrics but takeaway tools for learning new lessons.
Capt. Andrew “Dojo” Olson, F-35 Demonstration Team commander and pilot performs a dedication pass in an F-35A Lightning II during the 2019 Wings Over Wayne Airshow April 27, 2019, at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, North Carolina. The WOW Airshow marks the third public performance of the F-35 Demo Team’s new aerial demonstration during 2019 airshow season.
Capt. Andrew “Dojo” Olson, F-35 Demonstration Team pilot and commander performs aerial maneuvers during the Wings Over Houston Airshow Oct. 18, 2019, in Houston, Texas. The show featured performances from the U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds, Tora, Tora, Tora, and Oracle. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Alexander Cook)
F-35s from the 62nd Fighter Squadron visit Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland, October 21, 2021. F-35 Lightning II aircraft traveled to JBSA-Lackland for a two week stay to train and fly with multiple different aircraft from the surrounding area to include the 149th Fighter Wing’s F-16 Vipers. (Air National Guard Photo by Staff Sgt. Ryan Mancuso)
The F-35 on Paper
The stealth fighter integrates AESA radar, Distributed Aperture System (DAS), electro-optical targeting, and off-board data links to provide unmatched situational awareness, one of the greatest advantages of the airframe. Another cutting-edge advantage: stealth.
The F-35 has a low radar cross-section (RCS), reducing the detection window and enabling first-look/first-shot advantages.
The F-35 is also networked, acting as a sensor node that can share targeting data and extend awareness across the entire force structure.
The result of these advantages: the F-35 often fires first, often engages beyond-visual-range, and avoids merges.
20:1 Kill Ratio
The F-35’s Red Flag 2017 kill ratio of 20:1 reflects dominance in BVR engagement, information superiority, and integrated air battle.
Aggressors were frequently killed before they even knew they were targets—that’s the F-35’s stealth, sensors, and tactics working as designed, exactly the missions the F-35 was built for.
Swarm Tactics
Yet the F-35 seemed to have a vulnerability. Aggressor F-16s reportedly used numerical superiority, multi-axis attacks, and saturation geometry. Basically, the F-16s swarmed the F-35.
This forced the F-35 to expend missiles, compress the engagement distance, and create merges—resulting in an overwhelming defensive scenario.
This exposed the F-35’s key limitation: limited internal weapons payload. When operating in stealth configuration, the F-35 typically only carries four AMRAAMS. Once these four missiles are expended, the F-35 must disengage—or merge for a WVR engagement.
Stealth offers advantages, of course, but one of the drawbacks is internal carriage requirements, which reduce payload.
Finite BVR shots per sortie are a problem against large formations. The F-16s identified and exploited this limitation.
WVR Realities
In close-range engagements, stealth advantage diminishes, and infrared missiles dominate. The stealth fighter was not built to dominate; it’s not even that maneuverable. Instead, the F-35 was designed to avoid merges.
But the F-16 pilots, understanding this asymmetry and relying on their advanced dogfighting skill set, forced the merge—at which point pilot proficiency and geometry mattered more than stealth, networking, or sensor fusion.
Historical Precedent
Air combat history has repeatedly shown that quality can dominate, yes, but quantity still has influence. In World War II, Korea, and Vietnam, swarm tactics and mass formations were used with success.
The modern parallel is clear; in Ukraine, Russian drone/missile swarms are being used to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems; in the Middle East, Houthi rebels are using drone swarms to complicate US aircraft carrier operations.
The Red Flag 2017 incident applies these tactics to air combat, forcing the fifth-generation fighter to adapt to a mass threat environment.
Strategic Implications
The stealth fighter excels in sensor-driven warfare and coalition integration. But saturation tactics stress any system. The F-35 rarely fights alone operationally; it is supported with AWACS, tankers, EW, and other fighters. In real combat, the F-35’s magazine depth would be augmented through support systems.
Yes, the single platform’s limited magazine depth is a concern.
That’s partially why the loyal wingman drone concept is being pursued so aggressively.
A U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft pilot receives fuel from a KC-135R Stratotanker aircraft, assigned to the 340th Expeditionary Air Refueling Squadron, over Southwest Asia Feb. 26, 2021. The F-16 is a compact, multirole fighter aircraft that delivers airpower to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. (U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Joey Swafford)
Capt. Charles “Static” Trader, both with the 13th Fighters Squadron F-16 pilots, performs an aerial demonstration in an F-16 Fighting Falcons during the Japanese-American Friendship Festival 2024 at Yokota Air Base, Japan, May 18, 2024. During two-day bilateral festival, The F-16 Fighting Falcon performs a multitude of aerial maneuvers during air festivals to showcase the ability and skill of the aircraft and pilot. (U.S. Air Force photo by Yasuo Osakabe)
A U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon is refueled over the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility Nov. 22, 2024. The F-16 avionics system includes highly accurate enhanced global positioning and inertial navigation systems in which computers provide steering information to the pilot. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. William Rio Rosado)
Still, the 2017 incident does not invalidate the F-35’s doctrine, and certainly does not prove the F-16 is superior. The incident exposes a weakness in an aircraft that is generally well-suited for modern warfare.
And the 20:1 kill ratio still shows F-35 dominance; the swarm tactics prove, however, that no platform is immune to saturation.
About the Author: Harrison Kass
Harrison Kass is an attorney and journalist covering national security, technology, and politics. Previously, he was a political staffer and candidate, and a US Air Force pilot selectee. He holds a JD from the University of Oregon and a master’s in global journalism and international relations from NYU.
