Russia Preparing For Mobilization And Unrest: The Kremlin appears to be preparing for a possible new mobilization campaign while publicly insisting that Russia’s economy remains stable despite mounting fuel shortages and signs of economic decline.
According to the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), on July 22, recent legislative changes, alongside proposed expansions of Russia’s internal security powers, show that Moscow is preparing not only to increase military recruitment but also to manage potential domestic unrest once a formal mobilization program is announced.
Russian nuclear weapons. Image Credit: Russian State Media.
Russian President Putin addressing the nation. Russian Federation Photo.
On July 22, the State Duma passed a law allowing citizens with unexpunged criminal records—including those convicted of drug trafficking and organized crime—to sign Ministry of Defense contracts during mobilization.
Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia, Chief of the Main Military-Political Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Army General Viktor Goremykin, stated that the law will expand the number of Russians fit for military service and facilitate efforts to recruit fighters for the war against Ukraine in 2026.
The ISW wrote, “Russia’s militarized internal security force, Rosgvardia, published proposed amendments on July 21 to expand its civil defense regulations to protect Russian society from unspecified “dangers” during mobilization, martial law, and in wartime.”
It added that the Kremlin is preparing to announce formal mobilization and potentially declare martial law in Russia in anticipation of civil unrest as mobilization remains highly unpopular within Russian society.
Putin knows how the last mobilization effort went, and now, with the war going even worse, this is a pivotal moment for him and the military.
Prior Attempts At Mobilization Saw Thousands Flee The Country
On September 21, 2022, with the invasion of Ukraine already going badly, Putin ordered a “partial mobilization” of military reservists. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a “huge mobilization reserve” and planned to mobilize 300,000 from its reserves.
This move triggered a massive exodus of more than a quarter-million military-age men, widespread anti-war protests, and chaotic implementation across Russia.
Fearing immediate military conscription, hundreds of thousands of Russians fled the country. Neighboring nations like Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Finland saw massive, miles-long queues at their borders and skyrocketing one-way flight prices as citizens scrambled to leave.
Demonstrations across the country resulted in a crackdown by police as thousands were arrested.
If Putin decides on another mobilization in order to turn the tide of the war, it won’t be any more popular, most analysts agree.
Russia’s Troop Strength Can’t Keep Up With Its Losses
Russia has suffered about 1.4 million casualties thus far during the war and is losing between 30,000 and 35,000 troops per month, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The number of losses is outpacing their ability to recruit new troops, despite Moscow offering sign-up bonuses as high as $80,000.
In another Telegraph piece, Hamish de Bretton-Gordon wrote, “The prospect of wider mobilization and forced conscription is becoming a genuine concern in Moscow.
“Russia’s elite have been content thus far to see ethnic minorities, prisoners, and contract soldiers bear the burden of the fighting. It is an entirely different proposition if their own sons and daughters are required to serve.
“Should Putin lose the support of Russia’s urban middle class and influential elites, his position could rapidly become untenable.”
Putin has actively avoided mass call-ups in major population centers like Moscow and St. Petersburg to prevent reputational damage around critical State Duma elections.
“If Putin wants to send another million of his soldiers to keep fighting against this wall, then these million Russians, who have not yet been mobilized into the Russian army and are queuing for gasoline, should think about what awaits them next,” said Ukrainian President Zelenskyy.
Casualties, already outpacing Russia’s recruiting efforts, are reaching catastrophic levels of 1,298 per square kilometer taken in June, compared to 68 casualties per square kilometer in June 2025, said the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in a July 1 intelligence assessment.
A Huge Risk Politically for Putin, Who Insists The Economy Is Fine
With the war going poorly, despite the continued rosy projections by Russia’s generals that they’ll complete the taking of all of the Donbas by the end of the year, Putin is attempting to portray the Russian economy as stable, even as gas shortages are rampant across the country.
Putin convened a meeting on July 22 on Russia’s current economic situation and claimed that Russia’s economy is stable despite “external attempts to destabilize the fuel and energy sector,” referring to Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian energy infrastructure.
Russian soldiers are stating that fuel shortages are affecting troops at the front, and it is becoming an untenable position. “The gasoline situation is completely f***ed. Not enough is being allocated to everyone. There’s a catastrophic shortage of gasoline,” one soldier said.
Economic Woes, And An Elite That Is No Longer Shielded
According to ISW, Russia’s economic difficulties are far from temporary.
“The Russian government has adopted suboptimal economic policies to sustain its war in Ukraine, leading to many of Russia’s current economic issues, including increased and unsustainable war spending, growing inflation, significant labor shortages within the construction and services industries, and reductions in Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.”
If the Kremlin does go through with a mobilization, and it appears it will, it could be a disaster, politically, for Putin.
He has striven hard to shield the Russian elites in Moscow and St. Petersburg from the realities of the war on the ground. Most of the casualties are from Russia’s far-flung regions in the eastern half of the country. But the recent and concentrated drone attacks on Moscow and other major cities, point to the war going very badly.
“If Russia does trigger military mobilization, it is a sign that the regime is under tremendous strain and is politically trapped,” says Max Bergmann, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
A mobilization is a “huge gamble for (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, a bet that could put himself and his regime at risk,” he added.
“Today, the backlash would be even greater (than in 2022), as war fatigue has increased, while the Kremlin has failed to explain to a significant portion of the population why this war is necessary and why it should be considered just,” Mikhail Komin, an analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), said.
Analysts and Ukrainian government officials believe that the Kremlin will likely wait to announce any large-scale mobilization plans until after the parliamentary elections, attempting to avoid premature public discontent.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
