Trump vs. Biden in 2024? With the 2022 midterms fast approaching, speculation about the 2024 presidential election is increasing; as soon as the midterms pass, the political world will fully pivot its attention towards the next presidential election. Typically, a presidential election, especially one in which an incumbent is eligible for reelection, offers more clarity. 2024 is a bit different. Nothing is certain.
But perhaps the safest bet, the Vegas odds-on favorite, is a 2020 rematch: Trump vs. Biden II.
Candidates Will Start Announcing Soon
The 2024 election is still two years out – and all potential candidates are currently playing a sophisticated game of chicken, waiting for one side to break. When someone does break, that is, declare their candidacy, the rest of the field will likely congeal quickly. And the two prospects most likely to break first, the ones with the most potential to influence the rest of the field, are Trump and Biden.
Trump has not declared his intention to run for 2024. But he has remained a central, vocal figure in the GOP. Actually, the Donald is still the standard-bearer in the GOP, which is unusual given he lost the last presidential election. Historically, when a president loses after one term, be it Jimmy Carter or George H. W. Bush, their star fades.
Trump is an anomaly in that he still drives the GOP despite being ousted from office. While Trump’s power has waned from its zenith-point he is still an authoritative figure in the GOP, as Liz Cheney recently learned. If Trump does declare another run, the GOP will likely snap in line behind the former president.
So, will Trump run again? Probably. It’s difficult to imagine Trump declining the spotlight. Although, a second general election loss would make Trump the only former president to lose two presidential elections – an ignominious mark that the thin-skinned Trump would surely prefer to avoid. Still, the chance to redeem himself, the chance to be The Man again, will likely draw Trump in. Expect him to run again in 2024.
How Soon Will Biden Announce?
If Trump declares his candidacy, Biden will likely do the same. Biden successfully won the 2020 Democratic Party ticket, in part, because he marketed himself as the only guy who could beat Trump. Whether Biden was the only guy who could beat Trump is impossible to test, but that Biden was able to beat Trump was proven concretely. And if Trump runs again, Biden may feel some sort of moral responsibility, as he believes he is the most likely candidate to defeat Trump in the general election, to run again. Either way, it’s hard to imagine Biden, who has spent his entire life striving for the presidency, walking away now that he’s earned the Oval Office. That Biden has passed his Best By date may not dissuade the president from running again. Biden’s popularity is rebounding from a historic crater, amidst a flurry of legislative wins.
If Trump and Biden decide to run, they are unlikely to face primary challenges. The Democrats will probably respect its incumbent president; no one is particularly well suited to make a run at displacing the sitting president. Trump is more likely to face a primary challenge, perhaps from an increasingly-popular Ron DeSantis, or from War Hawk turned Trump-Thwarter-in-Chief, Liz Cheney. But in all likelihood, if either Trump or Biden wants their party’s 2024 nomination, it’s all theirs.
Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign would likely be light on policy specifics yet heavy on tales of persecution. Undoubtedly, Trump will lean into his bit about the 2020 election being stolen, framing himself not as a comeback challenger to the presidency, but as the true and rightful president. In light of the FBI’s August raid of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property, Trump’s claim of victimhood will have more ammunition this time. The results of the ongoing investigation will of course influence Trump’s viability as a candidate – but don’t expect it to force Trump out of the race.
Biden will offer himself as a sane alternative to the Donald ; Biden will remind voters not to compare him to The Almighty but just to The Alternative. Biden’s potential slogan: Biden 2024: You Could Do Worse. If inflation and gas prices keep trending downwards, Biden will lean heavily into his economic recovery. Although, if the Fed kicks off another recession, as many are fearing is the case, Biden’s going to have a tough case to make to voters who have experienced three recessions in fifteen years.
While the specifics of the 2024 presidential election remain unclear, don’t be surprised to find a 2020 rematch.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. He lives in Oregon and listens to Dokken. Follow him on Twitter @harrison_kass.
