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Is Russian Planning a Major Attack For Ukraine’s Independence Day?

Terminator Tank Ukraine
Terminator. Image Credit: Russian State Media.

As Ukraine’s Independence Day Approaches, Fears of Russian Attacks Mount – While Russian forces remain bogged down across the long front lines of Moscow’s ongoing invasion, some fear that Russia will launch massive strikes at civilian and military targets alike throughout Ukraine in the days around its Independence Day of August 24.

What is on the Horizon?

According to an August 22 statement by the U.S. State Department, Russia is laying the groundwork for an uptick in strikes targeting civilian targets and governments in the days surrounding Ukraine’s Independence Day, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has promised will be met with an unspecified strong response from the Ukrainian side. August 24, which will also mark the sixth month of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine which began in February, commemorates the day which the modern Ukrainian state declared independence from Russia in 1991. The State Department alert posted to the website of the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine also urged American citizens located in Ukraine to depart the country immediately through civilian ground transportation options.

A slew of rocket attacks against targets in Ukraine have already taken place this week, a possible preview of what is to come in upcoming days. Strikes or shellings of cities adjacent to southern frontlines such as Nikopol, Voznesensk, and in Ukraine’s southern Odesa could be a harbinger of Russian strikes in the short-term future. President Zelesnky cautioned Ukrainians to be wary of Russian attacks on August 24, imploring that Ukrainians be aware that “disgusting Russian provocations and brutal strikes are possible tomorrow.” According to the Telegram channel of the Belarusian military monitoring group “Belarusian Hajun,” Russia may also be amassing missiles and other weapons in southern Belarus for a renewed strike on Ukrainian targets around Kyiv, which has only occasionally been subject to Russian attacks in recent months. Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian targets from Belarus have been similarly limited, with the last strike originating from Belarus occurring in late July, when Russia launched roughly 25 missiles at targets across northern Ukraine.

What is Russia Saying?

While Ukrainian and U.S. officials have unmistakably raised concern of an uptick in Russian strikes to come, Russian sources and officials have thus far have not echoed such threats directly, but instead have made threatening remarks surrounding the car-bombing attack near Moscow which killed Darya Dugina, daughter of the Russian hypernationalist philosopher Aleksandr Dugin. Russia’s Federal Security Service was uncharacteristically quick in “uncovering” the culprit behind the attack, who was identified by the Russian international security agency as being perpetrated by a woman who was supposedly affiliated with Ukraine’s special services. Ukraine was quick to deny any participation or role in Dugina’s assassination.

While the actual perpetrator behind the Dugina killing will likely remain unknown for some time (some have speculated that the attack was conducted by Russia’s special services themselves, while others have claimed that a shadowy oppositional “National Republican Army” was responsible), the Russia seems primed to use the incident for its own purposes regardless. An extraordinary session of the State Duma is scheduled to take place on Thursday around the issuing of a “special statement” on Ukraine, which some have speculated to be a demonstration of state strength following Dugina’s assassination. Russian President Vladimir Putin honored Dugina posthumously with an “Order of Courage” medal, while a variety of Russian conservative political figures used her funeral to rail for Russia to step up its efforts to secure victory in its invasion of Ukraine, placing pressure on the Kremlin to act.

Ukraine Video Footage

Image of Ukraine attacking Russian tank. Image Credit: Twitter Screenshot.

Whether or not Russia uses the Dugina assassination to justify a renewed string of strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets, it is appearing increasingly likely that Russia is gearing up to conduct a string of attacks on civilian targets as Ukraine marks two important anniversaries on August 24.

Wesley Culp is a Research Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. He regularly writes on Russian and Eurasian leadership and national security topics and has been published in The Hill as well as in the Diplomatic Courier. He can be found on Twitter @WesleyJCulp.

Written By

Wesley Culp is a Research Fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. He regularly writes on Russian and Eurasian leadership and national security topics and has been published in The Hill and the Diplomatic Courier. He can be found on Twitter @WesleyJCulp.

8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. from Russia with love

    August 24, 2022 at 9:10 am

    summary for August 23-24.
    _____________________________
    Report of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine 24.08.2022

    ◽️ As a result of the offensive actions of the allied forces, the losses of the 68th infantry-jaeger, 66th mechanized and 56th motorized infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operating in the Donetsk direction amounted to more than 600 people.

    In addition, about 160 servicemen of the 66th mechanized brigade refused to take further part in further hostilities. The command of the operational-tactical group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “Donetsk” decided to withdraw these formations due to the loss of combat capability from their positions to the rear areas.

    ? More than 50 percent of the personnel of the 20th battalion of the 93rd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed by the strikes of the operational-tactical aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the Artyomovsk region. Due to high losses, the battalion’s servicemen arbitrarily left their positions and departed in an unknown direction.

    ? The 18th battalion of the 35th Marine Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was defeated in the area of ​​the settlement of Lozovoe, Kherson region, while trying to covertly force the Ingulets River.

    More than 80 nationalists and 6 cars were destroyed.

    ? The high-precision weapon of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the Konstantinovka area of ​​the Donetsk People’s Republic hit the temporary deployment point of the 72nd mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

    About 80 nationalists and 8 units of military equipment were destroyed.

    ? Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile forces and artillery continue to strike at military facilities on the territory of Ukraine.

    Per day hit:

    ▪️7 command posts, including the 66th mechanized brigade in the Novomikhailovka area, the 15th rocket artillery regiment in the Kurdyumovka area of ​​the Donetsk People’s Republic, the 102nd territorial defense brigade in the Gulyaipole area of ​​the Zaporozhye region,
    ▪️47 artillery units in firing positions, manpower and military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 212 districts.

    Destroyed:

    ▪️five ammunition depots in the districts of Ilyinka, Krasnaya Gora of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Novoaleksandrivka of the Zaporozhye region, Shirokoye of the Dnipropetrovsk region, Snigirevka of the Nikolaev region,
    ▪️The united point of logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of ​​​​the settlement of Orekhov, Zaporozhye region.

    ? As part of the counter-battery fight, the following were hit: a reactive artillery battery of multiple launch rocket systems “Hurricane” in the Dzerzhinsk region of the Donetsk People’s Republic, a platoon of the Smerch MLRS near the village of Rogan, Kharkiv region.

    In addition, suppressed:

    ▪️four platoons of multiple launch rocket systems “Grad” in the areas of the settlements of Seversk, Artyomovskoye, Orlovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Barmashovo of the Nikolaev region,
    ▪️three platoons of D-30 howitzers at firing positions in the areas of the settlements of Soledar, Opytnoe and Antonovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

    ? Russian air defense systems shot down in a day: seven Ukrainian UAVs in the areas of the settlements of Chernyanka, Belaya Krinitsa, Kherson region, Nikolskoye, Volnovakha and Trudovoe of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

    Also, in the area of ​​​​the village of Kamenka, Kharkiv region, two Ukrainian shells of a multiple launch rocket system were intercepted.
    ____________________________
    On August 25 I will post a summary for August 24-25. can be compared. I doubt the change in the intensity of the beats. Russia is conducting a special operation, but not a PR campaign?

  2. KB

    August 24, 2022 at 9:21 pm

    You’re kidding, right? Russia’s PR campaign is all it’s got at the moment. The “special operation has ground to a halt. The front hasn’t moved since early July, though we still get videos of Russian tanks popping their tops, and Russian ammunition cook-offs. Funny how Russia doesn’t post videos of all these magnificent Russian successes it brags about, isn’t it?

    But Russia’s Ministry of Defense doesn’t have to worry, because anyone caught contradicting the nonsense stated above is heading straight to jail.

    Anyway, I’m sure that Russia will do better once the old men with crutches and the convicts finally make it to the front lines.

    What Russia really achieved on August 24:
    Blew up a train and killed 15 civilians.

  3. Yrral

    August 24, 2022 at 10:21 pm

    American stop deluding yourself, Ukraine was born from communism,it first President serve on the Russian Politburo,was a member of the communist party,much of Ukrainain political system is based on Russian rule,

  4. from Russia with love

    August 25, 2022 at 6:47 am

    from August 24 to August 25
    _________________________________
    Report of the Russian Ministry of Defense on the progress of the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine 25.08.2022

    ✈️ High-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces at the military airfield Mirgorod, Poltava region, hit five combat aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force. One Su-27 and one Su-24 destroyed. Two more Su-27s and one Su-24 were critically damaged. Enemy losses in manpower amounted to 30 nationalists. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, as a result of a high-precision strike on the Dnipro military airfield, three aircraft of the Ukrainian air force were destroyed.

    ? A high-precision strike by the Russian Aerospace Forces in the area of ​​​​the settlement of Novy Bug, Mykolaiv region, destroyed the command post of the Kakhovka grouping of Ukrainian troops.

    64 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and seven units of military equipment were liquidated.

    ? As a result of a direct hit by an Iskander missile on a military echelon at the Chaplino railway station in the Dnipropetrovsk region, more than 200 servicemen of the reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and 10 units of military equipment, en route to the combat zone in Donbass, were destroyed.

    ? Precision strikes continue on the objects of the military-industrial complex of Ukraine, carrying out repairs of weapons and military equipment for the Ukrainian troops.

    In the village of Shepetovka, Khmelnitsky region, high-precision weapons of the Russian Aerospace Forces destroyed the workshops of an enterprise for the repair of armored weapons and multiple launch rocket systems, including those of foreign production.

    In the city of Zaporozhye, the production workshops of the Iskra plant were hit, in which the repair of air defense radar stations and counter-battery combat was carried out.

    The production buildings of the Migremont aviation repair plant, where the Ukrainian Air Force aviation equipment was being restored, were also destroyed.

    ? Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile forces and artillery continue to strike at military facilities on the territory of Ukraine.

    Per day hit:

    ▪️7 command posts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the areas of settlements: Velikomikhaylovka of the Dnipropetrovsk region, the city of Nikolaev, Artyomovsk, Pereezdnoe, Kaleniki, Soledar of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Poltavka of the Zaporozhye region,
    ▪️ manpower and Ukrainian military equipment in 149 districts.
    ▪️Four ammunition depots were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Gulyaypole in the Zaporozhye region, Krasnaya Gora in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Zmiev in the Kharkov region, Zhovtneve in the Nikolaev region and a fuel storage facility for military equipment in the area of ​​the settlement of Golitsinovo in the Nikolaev region.

    ? During the counter-battery fight, two platoons of the Grad MLRS were suppressed in the areas of the settlements of Artemovskoe and Sukhaya Balka, as well as three platoons of D-30 howitzers at firing positions in the Novgorodskoe, Vesele, Evgenovka regions of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

    ? Russian air defense systems shot down five UAVs in the areas of the settlements of Kamenka, Kharkiv region, Urozhaynoye, Vasilevka, Zeleny Gay, Donetsk People’s Republic, and Kamysh, Zarya, Zaporozhye region.

    In addition, nineteen shells of the Himars multiple launch rocket system were intercepted in the areas of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, the cities of Kherson and Donetsk.
    _____________________________
    as I said, the same planned work as the day before. destruction of troop concentrations, attacks on military infrastructure, destruction of ammunition depots and command posts.
    I do not observe any “holiday atrocities”.
    all this confirms that the expected massacres of civilians are written by moral freaks who are really ready to do something like that. and who is it? this is Ukraine and the USA? and of course Britain?

  5. KB

    August 25, 2022 at 10:16 am

    Say what you will, the authors of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s press releases are masters of contemporary fiction.

    You have to ask yourself, if so much was achieved in the last two days, why hasn’t the front moved in two months?

    And if things are going so well, why has Putin now ordered 137,000 more men?

  6. Jeff

    August 25, 2022 at 11:22 am

    From Russia with Love, those are some pretty good reports. Maybe 1945 should rethink Kass’s employment and hire you for an opposing viewpoint. I always like to hear two sides of the argument.

  7. Yrral

    August 25, 2022 at 2:53 pm

    Russia has located the city,where Himars are based at with the help of Ukrainain Collaborators in Mikolaiv, Google Mikolaiv Himars Arrest

  8. from Russia with love

    August 26, 2022 at 4:37 am

    @jeff
    this will not work for one piquant reason? the copyright for this data belongs to the RF Ministry of Defense. Have you heard about this guy Konashenkov? every day he announces the results of the special operation for the day. only confirmed facts. By the way, for this reason, this is far from the most complete data on the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine per day. they do not contain data from the DPR militia and there are no data on losses that are not confirmed. for example, after strikes on two airfields, Konashenkov reported the destruction of 5 aircraft and critical damage to 3 more (8 in total). only 5 went into the statistics of destroyed aircraft.
    I am sure that many would like to see data from that (Russian) side, but how do you imagine it? 1945 begins to publish a daily summary of the RF Ministry of Defense? along with articles by Wesley Culp, Jack Buckby, Stavros Atlamazoglou, whose Putin is constantly in a panic, and Matyl, who has already recorded Ukraine as a winner because he invented cancer for Putin? ? specific facts next to the fantasies of the Ukrainian General Staff about how much they would like to kill Russians by today and chewing the snot of British intelligence that “most likely”, “apparently”, “probably” the front is static, but the Russians took this settlement and is that one over there? no, this will definitely not happen here.?

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