Does Trump win 2024? A series of Emerson College polls conducted between August 15 and 29 appear to show former President Donald Trump with a commanding lead over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical rematch. The news bodes well for the Republicans in November’s mid-terms, assuming that former President Donald Trump’s legal challenges and wrangling with the FBI don’t turn off voters in the coming months.
Trump holds substantial leads in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Georgia – giving the former president a shot at winning back a total of 36 electoral college votes should he hold all states he won last time, including Ohio, while also taking Georgia and Pennsylvania.
In Ohio, the former president holds a 14% lead over President Joe Biden, taking 53% support to Biden’s 39%. In Pennsylvania, Trump won by five percentage points, with 47% support to Biden’s 42%. Georgia saw a similar lead for the former president, with 51% support to Joe Biden’s 46%.
After two years of economic turbulence, a troubled withdrawal from Afghanistan, and now a war in Ukraine, President Joe Biden is struggling to maintain the leads he gained in the 2020 presidential election – and if these numbers hold true, it could suggest that former President Trump is in with a strong chance of winning in 2024 if he chooses to launch a third presidential campaign.
Beyond Trump: Trafalgar Group Shows Strong Generic Republican Support
The Trafalgar Group, a Georgia-based polling organization, known for its successful predictions during the 2016 presidential election, also found that Republican support remains high even as the Democrats attempt to paint the GOP as an extremist outfit.
Polling 1,084 likely voters nationwide, the Trafalgar Group found that Republican candidates have the edge over Democrat candidates in November.
Respondents were asked, “In general, for whom do you plan to vote in the upcoming 2022 congressional election?” The survey found that 47.2% of respondents plan to vote for Republican candidates, while 41.4% of respondents plan to vote Democrat. A substantial 11.4% of voters couldn’t tell pollsters who they plan to vote for yet.
More Democrats were surveyed in the poll, too, making the figures even more impressive. 39.3% of respondents considered themselves Democrats while 35.6% told pollsters they vote Republican. 25.1% of respondents were either independents or “other” voters. It certainly could show that Democrats are moving away from their party and are beginning to lean more Republican, but more likely represents a trend of independent voters turning their backs on President Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats.
It’s a significant gap, and one likely to give Republicans some confidence in the coming months – but a lot can still change between now and November.
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.
