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Joe Biden: Can He Really Win in 2024?

Joe Biden
U.S. President Joe Biden.

Given Democrats’ over-achieving performance in the midterms, many pundits are asking whether Biden can pull off a win in 2024. We’re two years out, but let’s consider Biden’s chances for reelection.

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2024: What Joe Biden Needs to Do

The first thing Biden will need to do, to win reelection, is run for president.

Biden still hasn’t clarified his intentions for 2024. Will he run? Or will he not run?

Unclear.

The simple fact is that Biden is too old to be president.

If he seeks reelection and he wins, he’ll serve from the ages of 82 until 86, making him by far the oldest sitting president ever (he’s the oldest right now, actually).

Biden also has another hurdle to clear if he is going to run again: his lack of popularity.

Biden has been historically unpopular throughout his first term. At one point over the summer, Biden’s popularity was the lowest for any president in modern history; lower than Trump or Carter’s, who were both one-term presidents.

Then again, the idea that Biden, who has spent his professional life pursuing the presidency (five decades in Washington serving as a Senator and Vice President) would walk away now that he’s earned the top job, feels unlikely.

Biden’s prime is behind him, but not many careerists, with Biden’s level of ambition, are going to be content walking away and coasting into obscurity.

So, if Biden does choose to run again, which I expect he will, the question becomes: can he win?

Well, if Democrats were able to buck historical trends and contemporary polls and maintain their majority in the Senate during this year’s midterms, Democrats have a shot at maintaining the White House with their incumbent.

Biden won the popular vote (and the Electoral College, obviously) in 2020. He certainly has the capacity to do so again in 2024.

A large factor in the viability of Biden’s 2024 campaign will be the economy.

Will inflation ease?

Will gas prices ease?

Will interest rates lower?

Will we stave off another recession?

Obviously, the better the economy, the stronger Biden’s case for reelection. If the economy does not improve, however, Biden will have presided over a lousy economy for four-straight years, likely inspiring voters to consider other options.

Still, the economy wasn’t great for 2022, either. The midterms are generally regarded as a referendum against the party in power. And this year, with the Democrats in power, and the economy lagging, Democrats still posted a favorable showing. Abortion became a prominent issue, and for many voters, Democrats held a favorable abortion platform. Democracy itself became a prominent issue, and for many voters, Democrats held the favorable democracy/election platform.

The point being: who knows what will be super relevant or trending in 2024. The economy is always relevant. But other issues will pop up and help to frame the fight for the White House.

Biden vs. Trump or DeSantis?

Another factor, of course, in Biden’s reelection bid, will be his opponent.

Safe money right now rests on either Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis leading the GOP ticket. Biden has already beaten Trump.

DeSantis is the lesser known, but fresher, entity. And DeSantis is unlikely to taint his campaign with the MAGA-rhetoric that Trump has employed for six years. Although Democrats have been rooting against Trump, regardless of the collateral outcomes, DeSantis may be a more significant threat to Democrats’ hopes of maintaining the White House than Trump.

Either way, Biden will have a difficult campaign. Hopefully he’s physically up for it.

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Joe Biden

Former Vice President of the United States Joe Biden speaking with attendees at the Moving America Forward Forum hosted by United for Infrastructure at the Student Union at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada.

President Joe Biden participates and delivers remarks in a roundtable with business and labor leaders on the economy, Friday, November 18, 2022, in the South Court Auditorium in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building at the White House. (Official White House Photo by Erin Scott)

Volodymyr Zelensky

Volodymyr Zelensky and Biden. White House Handout.

Joe Biden

President Joe Biden participates and delivers remarks in a roundtable with business and labor leaders on the economy, Friday, November 18, 2022, in the South Court Auditorium in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building at the White House. (Official White House Photo by Erin Scott)

Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. He lives in Oregon and listens to Dokken.

Written By

Harrison Kass is a Senior Defense Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison has degrees from Lake Forest College, the University of Oregon School of Law, and New York University’s Graduate School of Arts & Sciences. He lives in Oregon and regularly listens to Dokken.

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. froike

    December 25, 2022 at 3:32 pm

    Too Old, too incompetent, too corrupt.

  2. 403Forbidden

    December 25, 2022 at 3:41 pm

    Biden, haha, will most assuredly not be around in 2024, never mind any run for a second term.

    Biden’s war in europe will fully unravel in 2023 and he will have to head for the hills or straight to acapulco or maybe some seniors old asylum.

    The democrat party is the first fascismo party of the globe and its leader biden needs to go. No more in 2024.

    Biden’s totally unqualified for the job of chief executive. What has he done besides fomenting war.

    Fueling global inflation ?!

    Increasing profits of arms manufacturers ?

  3. Audie

    December 25, 2022 at 4:35 pm

    Biden has never had an original idea in his life. This term is Obama’s third term & Biden’s next term will be Obama’s fourth. Dr.Jill is determined for him to run so he probably will & will be voted in no matter who runs against him even if he is like Fetterman.

  4. Dr. Scooter Van Neuter

    December 26, 2022 at 4:16 pm

    Biden was absolutely incapable of winning in 2020, yet supposedly he did.
    It has become apparent that the US has become the Soviet Union of the 60s. Any American who still believes in the democratic vote is either deluded or a fool.
    Short answer: If the godless, leftist powers that be want Biden elected he will be, regardless of his corruption, lies, and utter incompetence.

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