When Russia launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, describing it as a “special military operation,” the Kremlin’s stated goal was to “denazify” and “demilitarize” its enemy.
The real purpose seemed to be a land grab, as Russian President Vladimir Putin sought to re-establish a Russian Empire and stop any further expansion of NATO membership.
Yet the war could end with Moscow actually losing territory.
What is sure is that Russia has already lost vast quantities of military hardware and personnel. According to the latest figures from Ukraine, the Kremlin’s forces have now lost 2,966 tanks – two dozen just on Sunday.
Even more ominously for Moscow, 94,760 Russian troops have lost their lives in the futile war – and at the current rate of 300 to 400 deaths reported each day, the grim milestone of 100,000 killed could be reached by Christmas.
In addition, some 284,280 Russian soldiers have been injured and another 1,000 captured.
Moscow has denied that the butcher’s bill is so high, and its own figures suggest it has lost fewer than 6,000. Pentagon officials believe the numbers to be far closer to Kyiv’s claims.
Ukraine has also downplayed its losses, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that there are likely some 100,000 total casualties on the Ukrainian side.
That probably includes military and civilian deaths, as well as wounded.
Crimea Liberation Coming
It isn’t just the losses of military personnel that Moscow may have to accept. Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe, took to social media on Monday and said that he believes the Ukrainian army will be able to liberate the occupied Crimean peninsula by August of next year.
Moscow illegally annexed Crimea in early 2014, but most Western countries continue to consider the peninsula as part of Ukraine. The same holds true for several regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson — that Putin claimed as annexed in October.
With the support of Western governments, including military aid, Kyiv has managed to push back Russia on virtually all fronts, and it began a counteroffensive earlier this year.
Ukrainian forces have conducted multiple raids on Crimea, and liberating it from Russian control is an underlying goal for Kyiv.
“This Russian war against Ukraine and the entire free Europe began with Crimea and must end with Crimea – with its liberation,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his Aug. 9 address.
“Today it is impossible to say when this will happen,” Zelensky added. “But we are constantly adding the necessary components to the formula of liberation of Crimea.”
For now, it seems that neither Putin nor Zelensky is willing to even discuss peace. Zelensky’s goal is clear, however, while Russia now may just be fighting to hold some land and save some face.
A Senior Editor for 1945, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,000 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
