Former President Donald Trump may not be the political powerhouse he once was, and there are signs that his popularity with the Republican establishment may be waning.
(Subscribe to 19FortyFive‘s New YouTube Channel here.)
However, he remains the front-runner in a still largely hypothetical match-up among GOP candidates.
Donald Trump and What the Polls Say
Though the primaries are still a year away, in a Reuters/Ipsos public opinion poll, Donald Trump received support from 43% of registered Republicans, while 31% threw their support behind Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Other recent polls have suggested DeSantis is considered more electable than Donald Trump or President Joe Biden.
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who announced her White House run via a video that was emailed to reporters on Tuesday, had just 4% of would-be voters showing their support.
DeSantis, who is seen as a potential rising star for the Republican Party, has yet to announce his intention to run – but it is widely expected he will do so in the coming weeks.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, who also hasn’t announced but has indicated that he is mulling a White House bid, received 7% support in the recent Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Other possible candidates who are expected to seek the Republican nomination include U.S. Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson.
The 2024 primaries kick off next February.
The Dixie Divide
What could make next year’s primaries interesting is that two southern states could have to pick between residents.
Both Trump and DeSantis call Florida home, while South Carolina – long seen as one of the most important early primary states – is home to both former Governor Haley and Senator Scott.
It should also be noted that Trump carried both states in 2016 and again in 2020. The former president remains very popular in the Palmetto State but could face a bigger challenge in Florida where DeSantis was reelected last November by the largest margin in 40 years.
Governor DeSantis went on to win 62 of Florida’s 67 counties, including reliably blue Miami-Dade – the state’s most populous – by 11 points. He was the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win the county in 20 years.
South Carolina could be even more hard-fought, but its significance can’t be understated, NBC News reported.
Since 1980, the winner of the South Carolina GOP primary has gone to win the party’s nomination in every cycle except for 2012 when former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich defeated eventual nominee then-former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
Were just Haley or Scott running, the advantage would be clear. However, both have won multiple statewide races, and each is seen to be a rising star within the party.
Yet, they could end up splitting the vote among traditional conservatives who want to move on from Donald Trump – and, in the process, help the former president carry the state.
Things are about to get very interesting.
Author Experience and Expertise
A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
