Manhattan’s district attorney has invited former president Donald Trump to testify before a grand jury – an offer that often precedes an indictment.
The Manhattan DA has spent years flirting with the prospect of charging Donald Trump for involvement in the payment of hush money to porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 campaign.
The invitation to testify before a grand jury is the strongest signal yet that the DA may actually pull the trigger, and bring charges against the former president.
The charges stem from the $130,000 payment that Trump made to Daniels after the National Enquirer contacted her “to offer exclusive rights to her story about an affair with Mr. Trump,” The New York Times reported.
If Trump is charged, he will become the first former president in US history to ever face criminal charges.
Trump is being investigated on multiple fronts, with the Manhattan case now seeming the most likely to bring charges (at least in the short term).
Aside from just establishing precedent, the prospective case has the potential to significantly impact the upcoming presidential election.
The big question here is: what could an indictment mean for Trump and his 2024 chances?
Donald Trump: An Indictment and the Election
Being indicted is not necessarily a death knell for Trump. The thing is, Trump has spent the last eight years marketing himself as the victim of some never-ending, liberal witch hunt. Trump’s supporters have by and large accepted the portrayal of Trump as a persecuted and marginalized figure. Really, there’s not much that would do more to validate the idea of Trump being the victim of a witch hunt than to formally bring charges against him.
Trump’s most hardcore supporters, of which there are millions (see MAGA Nation) won’t be phased simply because some prosecutor in Manhattan (aka an overeducated, coastal elite liberal, probably Jewish), decided to charge MAGA’s demagogue. Rather, charges against Trump will only serve to prove what MAGA Nation has always known: that Trump is the victim of a witch hunt.
(For the record: Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan DA is a Democrat with two degrees from Harvard. But he’s not Jewish. He’s black.)
Even Trump won’t be phased if the Manhattan DA brings charges. While Trump has never been charged criminally, he has been getting sued his entire adult life. He’s been the defendant before. And with respect to Manhattan’s case against Trump, the DA will need to do an impressive job just to make the charges stick.
“The case against the former president hinges on an untested and therefore risky legal theory involving a complex interplay of laws, all amounting to a low level felony,” The New York Times reported.
And “even if Mr. Trump is indicted, convicting him or sending him to prison will be challenging.”
So, I’m not expecting an indictment against Trump to have any serious consequences for the former president – either legally or politically.
Trump’s not going to prison for this. And he’s not going to withdraw from the 2024 race because of this.
His followers aren’t going to abandon him for this. Trump may go down eventually but I don’t think it will be because of hush money payments he made to Stormy Daniels.
Trump will likely get through this – and may, in certain respects, be politically stronger for it.
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Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
