Nixon Knew When to Step Back; Trump Does Not – Former President Donald Trump has been indicted. This is a major moment in U.S. legal history. No American president has ever been charged with a crime in this manner. Were Trump convicted, he could potentially face jail time. That would be unprecedented. No American president has ever gone to prison.
There will be a lengthy debate about whether the indictment represents a ‘criminalization’ of political difference – the interpretation suggested by Trump and his media allies – or the application of the rule of law to everyone, including former presidents – the interpretation suggested by Trump’s many critics.
But this debate need not happen if only Trump himself would step back. It is very obvious that even Trump’s harshest critics are wary about this case. Everyone is aware of the precedents being set. No one wants ex-presidents to be routinely investigated, much less jailed. This is known problem in other democracies, where the partisan transfer of power can lead to investigations of the previous president.
If Trump had retired from politics, as President Richard Nixon did in the wake of the Watergate scandal, many of the cases against him would likely be dropped, even if they have legal merit. But Trump is relentless and unscrupulous. He insists on running for office again, despite his many scandals and allegations. In doing so, he is forcing the country into a binary choice of either investigating an ex-president or tolerating his lawlessness.
Even Nixon Knew When His Time was Up
In the early 1970s, Nixon was in a similar position. Watergate had disgraced him. Impeachment was moving forward; he was likely to be convicted. The country was deeply divided. Yet Nixon did something Trump is incapable of – resigning from the presidency and then withdrawing from public life. A deeply flawed man who probably should have gone to prison, Nixon nonetheless deserves some credit for this act of abnegation. He spared the country a wrenching constitutional conflict.
President Gerald Ford pardoned Nixon, ensuring he never went to prison. This was widely criticized as letting Nixon off the hook, and certainly, Nixon was guilty. But Nixon accepted the implicit deal of the pardon – the country would look the other way on his behavior if he never returned to politics. And Nixon’s post-presidential restraint helped rehabilitate his reputation. When he died in 1994, his funeral was treated as a moment of national importance with national figures in attendance. Nixon had restored himself somewhat.
This informal deal – we will not prosecute you if you go away and keep quiet – is almost certainly available to Donald Trump too. The insistence on prosecuting him is as much political as it is legal. Trump stirred up a mob to attack the US Congress to retain the presidency. His instincts are increasingly authoritarian. He promised ‘vengeance’ if re-elected. There is widespread anxiety about his possible return to the presidency. Even Republican officials would like to move on from him to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. But Trump will not take the offer. Trump wants to be president again and wants be vindicated as innocent.
Prosecuting a President is Inevitably Political
Trump’s problem is obvious though. He is almost certainly guilty of many offenses, both before (such as tax fraud) and during his presidency (such as election tampering). In the specific case of last week’s indictment, Trump did indeed pay off a pornographic movie star with whom he had an affair. But infidelity and trying to hush it up is not a crime. Pursuing Trump over how the money was distributed will feel meager and forced. It will certainly worsen the perception among Trump voters that they are a persecuted minority.
But Trump will never admit any mistake. To withdraw from politics would imply that. Trump also loves the limelight. The attention of the press feeds his narcissism. Hence, the country must engage in a new, potentially fraught course: investigating and possibly imprisoning a presidential candidate with a reasonable chance at victory. Because Donald Trump will not withdraw from public life, America has no choice.
This can be done without a social implosion. In South Korea in 2016, a sitting president was impeached and removed without a major breakdown of social order. President Park Geun-Hye was similar to Trump in that she insisted she was not guilty despite the massive evidence against her. And, like Trump, she refused to resign. Had she, she would likely not have been prosecuted and jailed. She too could have take that Nixonian exit deal – go quietly, and the country will look the other way. She, like Trump, turned it down.
The Trump Mistake
Trump is not public-spirited. He will admit nothing. He will never step back. Even if he loses the 2024 presidential race, he will likely stay active in American politics. Hence, there is no choice but to investigate him. He has left the country no other option.
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Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; RobertEdwinKelly.com) is a professor in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University and 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.
