A report from Politico on Tuesday revealed that Ukrainian officials are keeping details of their planned counteroffensive secret for now, citing concerns about recent classified information leaks. According to the report, two unnamed European officials familiar with the matter said that Ukrainian military leaders believe the leaked classified documents by U.S. Air Guardsman Jack Teixiera put their plans at risk of falling into the wrong hands.
The European officials said that Kyiv is concerned that Russia could learn of the timing of the planned counteroffensive – which Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has warned could occur any time before May 15 – as well as details about the number of troops that will be used in the planned attack.
The concerns were confirmed by a Ukrainian legislator who spoke to the outlet on the condition of anonymity. According to the legislator, “a few people in the country” know what Kyiv is planning.
Now that all combat vehicles pledged to Ukraine by NATO forces have arrived in Ukraine, and following news on Monday that Ukrainian troops have forced Russian troops from some of their positions in Bakhmut, Kyiv forces are on a good footing to launch the assault. What form that assault will take, however, remains entirely unclear.
While the White House and Western allies are likely aware that an assault is being prepared, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby effectively admitted that the White House has not been given the full details of Kyiv’s plan.
“They don’t have an obligation to notify us to tell us in advance,” Kirby said of the plans on Monday. The Biden administration official said that “oftentimes” the White House has a “sense” of what is being prepared because Washington is in daily contact with Kyiv.
Is Russia Prepared for Ukraine?
While Moscow doesn’t know what Ukraine is planning, Russian military leaders are entirely aware that a new Ukrainian counteroffensive is imminent.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy admitted as much on Saturday, April 29, when he told reporters that the rumors are true and a counteroffensive “will happen.”
The question for Moscow, then, is not whether the assault is coming but whether Russian forces on the ground are ready for it.
In Bakhmut alone, Wagner leader Prigozhin said in a 90-minute interview on Sunday that his fighters are running so low on supplies and ammunition that he may be forced to withdraw them from the city completely.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to deploy aging weapons and combat vehicles, likely saving its most advanced weaponry until the last moment.
Without sufficient ammunition, troops, and weapons, Ukraine’s planned offensive could cause yet more headaches for Vladimir Putin.
MORE: World War III – Where Could It Start?
MORE: A U.S.-China War Over Taiwan Would Be Bloody
Jack Buckby is 19FortyFive’s Breaking News Editor. He is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.
