Donald Trump keeps the lead in latest Morning Consult tracking poll: The former president has maintained his lead, with 57 percent support in the Republican nominating contest- and now leads President Biden in a head-to-head matchup.
Donald Trump: The Next President of the United States?
In the latest edition of the weekly Morning Consult tracking poll, former President Donald Trump continues to lead the field, although he is still off from his highest highs in the poll.
However, Trump also now leads in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup against President Joe Biden, for the first time since the tracking poll launched late last year.
According to the latest poll, released Tuesday, Trump leads the Republican race with 57 percent support, with a 38-point lead over second-place Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has 19 percent support. Former Vice President Mike Pence is in third place with 7 percent, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy has gained in recent weeks, to come in fourth place with 6 percent.
The South Carolina duo of former Ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott each has 3 percent, while former Gov. Chris Christie has 2 percent and former Gov. Asa Hutchinson 1 percent. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum has zero percent, as do two candidates who entered the race in the last week: Miami Mayor Francis Suarez and former Congressman Will Hurd.
The poll found that, for those who said they support Trump, DeSantis is the leading second choice, with 42 percent, followed by Pence with 14 percent, Ramaswamy with 13 percent and Scott with 7 percent.
When asked who they support in hypothetical general election matchups, Trump leads Biden 44-41, with 10 percent answering “someone else” and another 5 percent saying “don’t know.” Biden leads DeSantis 42-40, with 12 percent answering “someone else” and 6 percent saying “don’t know.”
“These numbers may be best considered as a test of electability — a key issue in party primaries that carries all the more significance this time around given concerns about Trump’s baggage and whether the GOP should work to maintain Trump’s coalition or to try to expand its base,” Morning Consult said.
The Morning Consult poll follows the release of the latest NBC News poll that had arrived the day before, which showed Trump with 51 percent support among Republican voters, followed by DeSantis with 22 percent, Pence with 7 percent, Christie with 5 percent, and Haley with 4 percent. The NBC poll also found that Biden leads Trump by 4 points in a hypothetical general election rematch.
The key events in recent months are that Trump was indicted, for the second time this year, although if anything the indictment appears to have helped the former president with Republican voters. In addition, it appears that DeSantis is not succeeding at connecting with voters, as the Florida governor has not gained any support since he got into the race. Very few of the other candidates have made much of an impact, and while Vivek Ramaswamy has been gaining support, he remains in single digits.
It remains early, there are always a lot of things that can change once debates get underway, and Trump may even face additional indictments in the coming months. And while the voting doesn’t get underway for more than six months, it doesn’t appear the structure of the Republican race has changed much in the last few months, with Trump continuing to maintain a huge lead.
Yet even as it looks more and more like Trump and Biden will face off again, CNN polling found that a large number of Americans do not want that.
“A CNN/SSRS poll from earlier this month found that more Americans viewed neither Biden nor Trump favorably than those who held favorable views of either man,” CNN said. “A plurality (36%) viewed neither candidate favorably, while 33% had a favorable view of Trump and 32% for Biden. Constraining ourselves to registered voters, 31% viewed neither Biden nor Trump favorably.”
Expertise and Experience:
Stephen Silver is a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive. He is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.
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