If Joe Biden cannot continue his campaign for president and somehow gets pushed out by Democratic Party elders in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris, it likely would be to the Democrats’ detriment. Former President Donald Trump likely would trounce Harris due to her caustic leadership style and lack of personal discipline despite his multiple criminal indictments and the civil actions against him.
Some reports seem to suggest that Biden chose to seek a second term because Democrats did not think Harris could win her own term as president against Trump or any other Republican.
Trump’s loyal base and campaign organization would stand in contrast with Harris, whose last campaign for president in 2019 disintegrated because she was unfocused and did not know how to lead.
Joe Biden won in 2020 because he had the Democratic Party political machine behind him and Trump’s personal unpopularity brought out suburban women in droves against him. He also was able to cast Trump as incompetent with his handling of COVID-19.
The latest Real Clear Politics Average puts Trump ahead of Harris in a trial heat with 46% to 42.8%.
Kamala Harris: A Weak Candidate
Harris, by contrast, enjoys lukewarm support among Democrats due to her own personality.
During her presidential campaign, she showed a lack of any core convictions and deferred to others for what her campaign message should be.
“Those of us personally familiar with Harris’ deficiencies know they cannot be fixed by new staff or pricey consultants. The change has to come from her,” former Harris aide Gil Durran wrote in a December 2021 San Francisco Examiner column.
By contrast, Trump knows how to market to audiences, which is why his political enemies fear him. He can connect with people and successfully sell himself. Trump is transactional in his relations and in his issues, but unlike Harris, he knows what he wants and goes for it.
Harris’s latest poll numbers show her with 37% disapproval and 45% approval.
Trump Polls Show Him With Solid Support Despite Criminal Accusations
FiveThirtyEight puts Biden and Trump within a statistical polling average, with 42.9% preferring Trump before the second indictment and 42.6% preferring Trump after the indictment. He still leads Biden in both scenarios.
“After eight years, Americans have made up their minds about former President Donald Trump. And it appears that not even a federal indictment is swaying them. According to polls conducted before and after Trump’s indictment on June 8, Trump’s support levels in both the primary and general election don’t appear to have budged, even though a large majority of Americans view the charges as serious,” Nathaniel Rackich wrote in a column for FiveThirtyEight.
FiveThirtyEight cautions that if the federal trial goes against the former president and he is convicted, it could erode support for Trump, especially among Independents.
Kamala Harris could capitalize on that to compensate for her own weaknesses. However, considering that Kamala Harris has struggled in her role as vice president and flailed in her last campaign, the outcome could be a toss-up leaning in Trump’s direction.
John Rossomando was a senior analyst for Defense Policy and served as Senior Analyst for Counterterrorism at The Investigative Project on Terrorism for eight years. His work has been featured in numerous publications such as The American Thinker, The National Interest, National Review Online, Daily Wire, Red Alert Politics, CNSNews.com, The Daily Caller, Human Events, Newsmax, The American Spectator, TownHall.com, and Crisis Magazine. He also served as senior managing editor of The Bulletin, a 100,000-circulation daily newspaper in Philadelphia, and received the Pennsylvania Associated Press Managing Editors first-place award for his reporting.
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