According to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, Donald Trump maintains a huge lead in the Republican nomination, at 47%-19% over the second-place contender, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Donald Trump Is Winning and Losing
In the poll, which was conducted over seven days ending on Monday, Trump has improved over the previous edition, which had him at 43%. Vivek Ramaswamy moved up to third place, with 9% support, just ahead of former Vice President Mike Pence’s 7%.
On the Democratic side, President Biden has 63% support, over Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 15%.
In a head-to-head presidential battle, Trump is behind President Biden, 37%-35%, although a full 28% answered that they “weren’t sure who to pick or would vote for someone else or no one at all.”
The poll also asked what issues voters care about in the upcoming election.
“The steady U.S. economy and voter anger over threats to abortion rights are buoying Democratic President Joe Biden, but voters are receptive to a host of culture-war issues his Republican rivals are campaigning on,” Reuters said.
Biden is planning to run on his economic record, which he calls Bidenomics.
“A decline in inflation and decreasing likelihood of recession could deprive Republicans of their most potent argument against Biden and the Democrats heading into the election,” Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections told Reuters.
The Reuters poll also found that the post-Dobbs focus on the abortion issue continues to favor Democrats.
“Concerns over the loss of abortion rights helped Democrats in last year’s congressional elections, and the poll showed that a majority of voters oppose presidential candidates who favor harsh abortion restrictions,” Reuters said.
“Some 73% of independents said they were less likely to support a presidential candidate who backs laws banning or severely restricting abortion access, compared with 27% who said they were more likely. A solid 72% majority of suburban white women – seen by many political strategists as an important demographic – said they were less likely to back an anti-abortion candidate.”
According to the RealClearPolitics average, Biden leads the average of polls over Trump by just 0.5%. In fact, every head-to-head poll included in that average for more than a month has either shown Biden leading, or a tie. Donald Trump frequently declares on Truth Social that he is winning by a lot, but the actual polls have not borne that out of late.
The most recent Quinnipiac poll had Biden winning by 5 points over Trump, while the most recent Morning Consult tracking poll had Biden up by 2. The most recent Economist/YouGov and The Messenger/HarrisX polls each had the race tied.
However, it remains very early, with the general election nearly a year and a half away, and the first voting in the Iowa caucuses nearly six months from now.
One of those recent polls had bad news for both major candidates. According to the latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll, a majority of Americans say both Trump and Biden are not “fit” to serve a second term as president. Of those asked, 55% say Biden is not fit, while 53% said the same of Trump.
“To be sure, more Americans say yes when asked if Trump is fit to serve again (36%) than say yes about Biden (27%). But even that gap is almost entirely down to partisan differences, as Trump voters are more likely to affirm Trump’s fitness (76%) than Biden voters are to affirm Biden’s (62%),” Yahoo said.
“But Biden still enjoys more overall support than Trump. Among registered voters, the current president leads his predecessor by 4 points (47% to 43%) — a margin that matches last month’s Yahoo News/YouGov survey.”
Expertise and Experience: Stephen Silver is a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive. He is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.