For the longest time I, and others, have argued that former President Donald J. Trump, while he is the likeliest candidate to win the Republican Party’s Primary in 2024, will get whipped in the General Election because the forty-fifth president polls so poorly among independent voters and minorities—specifically women.
It’s true, too, that the former president struggles with these voters in national polls.
But there are some caveats that should be added to this. In fact, as you’ll read, Trump might just eke out another unlikely win, if certain factors work in his favor.
People Vote with Their Wallets
First, despite the fact that the economy has been held together by the monetary equivalent of spit-and-polish,we are on the brink of a full-blown recession.
The Motley Fool recently released a study that indicated the much-feared recession is going to hit us in the next six months.
If that is the case, expect many voters to blame President Joe Biden, which will diminish his support among most of the groups that nominally favor him (except for women, who appear singularly obsessed as a group with abortion).
A recession could crush Biden with independent and even some minority voters, granting Trump the advantage he needs at the right moment to thrust an electoral dagger in the political heart of Mr. Biden.
Trump’s Doing Better in Swing States Than Most People Thought
Next, a new round of polling data focusing on the attitude of most voters in key swing states indicates that Trump has a slight edge over his Democratic Party rival.
Remember, it was the oft-misunderstood, swing state voter who propelled Trump over the finish line in 2016 over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (a woman we were told was the most amazing, competent individual to have ever run for president from either party in a generation).
Well, the Middle-Class and Working-Class swing state voters (who usually trended toward the Democratic Party but were considered independent) preferred Trump over Hillary.
Because of that preference, Trump defeated the would-be president Hillary Clinton in a stunning late-night victory. Should this polyglot coalition of key voters in the critical swing states show up at the polls in Trump’s favor in 2024, he will probably win reelection.
Latinos Love Donald Trump
Besides this factor, there is the added component that Trump polls well with certain minority voters, such as the Latino community. In fact, in the run-up to the contentious 2020 Presidential Election, President Trump hada whopping 50 percent approval rating with Latino voters.
In the aftermath of 2020, as the Biden Administration attempted to rollback Trump’s border policies, another poll showed that overwhelming majorities of Latino voters preferred Trump’s border and immigration policies than they did the Democratic Party’s policies.
While Trump did not win a majority of Latino or African-American support in 2020 to put him over the edge against Joe Biden, Trump did win a massive number of those votes—far more than he was slated to, given the negative press that dogged him throughout his four years in office about being a purported racist (he was not, by the way).
One can expect that appeal to continue, particularly among Latinos, as 2024 gets closer, if Donald Trump is the GOP nominee. This will prove debilitating to the Biden Campaign, which narrowly defeated Trump in 2020.
As an aside, it’s important to note that while historic numbers of Americans turned out to vote for both Trump and Biden in 2020, Biden’s actual victory—especially in key battleground states—was narrow from an electoral standpoint.
Biden’s 2020 victory was determined on the margins.
I believe, especially if Biden squares off against Trump again in 2024, it will be an even narrower victory. This is because both candidates share relatively low approval ratings. And, unlike in 2020, Mr. Biden has a recent political and policy record that he will have to defend.
Third-Party Candidates Cleave Support for Both Biden & Donald Trump
Then, there’s the added—unanticipated—issues of third-party candidates who are plaguing election year soothsayers. Of course, there have been third-party candidates in past elections. Technically, Trump himself was a third-party candidate in 2000 (though that went nowhere fast, and I suspect Trump himself understood this back then).
In 2024, though, things a bit different. The last time the American voter had a viable third-party alternative was when the gonzo billionaire, Ross Perot, ran in 1992. Before that, it was probably former President Theodore Roosevelt’s unconventional bid as the Bull Moose Party candidate in 1912.
There are two candidates on the Left to keep an eye on as we enter the 2024 election. They are Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., as well as Cornel West.
RFK, Jr. is considered by most political analysts to be a second-tier Democratic Party candidate who poses the main contender for the Democratic Party’s nomination, President Joe Biden, the biggest long-term headache. RFK, Jr., is campaigning with a solid 21 percent support among likely Democratic Party voters.
His appeal is to the Left of Biden. What’s more, he resonates deeply with whatever white, working-class votersremain loyal to the Democratic Party in the Age of Trump.
To be clear: RFK, Jr., is not going to win the Democratic Party’s nomination under any circumstance. One reason is because the Democrat voters tend to stick together. Once a nominee has been chosen, the party’s stalwart stand much closer to their nominee than do Republicans who may dislike their party’s nominee (how many Trump Democrats did you see as opposed to Biden Republicans, such as the Lincoln Project crowd, for example?)
Moreover, the Democratic Party primary process is rigged against insurgent candidates, such as RFK, Jr., who is hated by the party’s elite players. Just as they did to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in 2016, the DNC elite are going to ensure that RFK, Jr., doesn’t get a fair shake.
But RFK, Jr., refuses to state whether he will accept the outcome of the DNC Primary process (given that he understands the primary is likely rigged against him by the same powerful forces he’s been railing against his entire career).
So, that means that Mr. Kennedy just might run as a third-party candidate.
Although, since RFK, Jr., appeals to more Trump-friendly voters, that might be damaging in the long-run to the Trump Campaign than it will be to the Biden. Certainly, though, RFK, Jr.’s continued presence in the Democratic Party’s Primary is going to complicate matters of Biden and might even depress overall support for a president who is highly unpopular.
Meanwhile, Cornel West is running outside the Democratic Party as the Green Party candidate for president. Yet, West will assuredly cleave a small but strong percentage of minority voters who would otherwise likely vote for the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate, if the prolific thinker and legendary civil rights activist, West, was not running for president.
West is a clear-and-present-danger to the Democratic Party. His mere presence in the campaign in 2024 will deprive the Biden Campaign of key votes they will need to eke out a victory over the raging fireball that is Donald Trump. And if, somehow, Kennedy and West joined forces, things might be even harder for either Biden or Trump to overcome.
All these factors mean that 2024 is not going to be as clear-cut for analysts as 2020 was. It is going to be a chaotic campaign season with multiple new factors that will complicate the ability for either of the two major party’s candidates to achieve an electoral victory.
Considering how critical the minority vote—notably the votes from the black community—was for the Biden Campaign in 2020, though, there could be a serious crisis down-the-line for Biden as Election Day approaches.
The weakening minority support for Joe Biden becomes all the more prevalent, when one takes into account the increasing support among minorities, notably Latinos, that Donald Trump has been enjoying.
Yes, Trump Can Win (If He’s the GOP Nominee)
Added together, then—irrespective of his unpopularity—Trump can manage a victory over Biden, however marginal it might be.
The forty-fifth president is polling well with key constituencies in swing states that will determine the outcome of the election. It is likely the economic conditions in the country will be working against Biden when Election Day rolls around.
Plus, the presence of third-party candidates harms both Trump and Biden, although Cornel West’s widespread appeal with essential minority voters will likely prove to be far more damaging to Biden than any kind of threat that a potential RFK, Jr., third-party run might pose to the Trump Campaign.
The bottom line here is to not underestimate Donald Trump’s chances, if he does, in fact, become the GOP nominee (as he is presently slated to become). At the same time, his chances are not as clear-cut as one would assume simply because Trump’s personality is so deeply divisive among voters.
If the election will be a squeaker as I suspect, it might turn against Trump because independent voters are turned off to his braggadocio and/or the various criminal proceedings he’s currently experiencing.
Buckle up. It’s going to be a wild ride! It might even make 2016 look tame by comparison (and it certainly won’t be anything like 2020, which I believe was an abnormality due to COVID-19).
A 19FortyFive Senior Editor, Brandon J. Weichert is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, as well as at American Greatness and the Asia Times. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower (Republic Book Publishers), Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life (Encounter Books), and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy (July 23). Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
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