Support for former president and Republican frontrunner Donald Trump dropped by six percentage points in the aftermath of the Milwaukee debate, according to a new poll from Emerson College.
Donald Trump and the Polling Drama
The two-day poll, conducted from August 25-26, found Trump’s support among Republican primary voters had dropped from 56% to 50%.
As the only high-profile candidate to miss the debate, Trump instead opted for a sit-down interview with former Fox News broadcaster Tucker Carlson on X, the site formerly known as Twitter.
Despite remaining the first choice among half of primary voters, Trump’s support is his lowest to date in an Emerson poll.
“While Trump saw a slight dip in support, the question from this poll is whether this is a blip for Trump or if the other Republican candidates will be able to rally enough support to be competitive for the caucus and primary season,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.
Interestingly, 57% of GOP primary voters said they will definitely vote for their chosen candidate, a fall from 62% compared to the previous poll. Trump saw the largest drop of loyalists, with 71% this week compared to 82% previously.
Other Candidates See Boosts
Following a strong performance, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley saw the largest increase in support up by five percentage points to 7%.
Likewise, former vice president Mike Pence all-but mirrored Haley in the poll with his support rising to the same figure up from 3% on August 19.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis saw an increase by two points to 12%, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy’s support dropped by one point from 10% despite more than a quarter of voters believing he won the debate.
“Different candidates have been able to pull varying demographic support from the Trump base, for example Mike Pence who saw an overall four-point bump in voter support was able to increase his support in the Midwest from 4% to 13% of the vote, while Trump saw his Midwest support drop from 54% to 42% after the debate,” Kimball said. “Nikki Haley’s support increased from about 2% to 9% among voters over 50 while Trump’s support dropped within this age group from about 56% to 49% after the debate.”
Skipping Debate Not The Issue?
48% of voters contacted by Emerson said Trump’s refusal to participate made no difference in their decision on whether to support him in the primaries. 30% said it made them less likely, while the remainder said it made them more likely to support the former president.
However, his interview with Carlson was not met with acclaim. Of those who had heard, seen or read about the sit-down conversation, 46% said they were less likely to support Trump based on the interview. 33% said they were more likely to offer support, while just over one-fifth said it made no difference.
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist based in Canada. He has written for the Western Standard, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo, and has covered notable events including the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee.
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