If the 2024 Election Were Held Today… We Should Expect a Close Race – We’ll be seeing a lot of political polls over the next fifteen months, but if the first New York Times/Siena College poll conducted on the state of the 2024 presidential campaign is any indication, we can expect a close race between the former and current presidents. According to the poll, President Joe Biden is on stronger footing than he was a year ago but is still in a neck-and-neck race with former President Donald Trump.
Neither candidate has a majority of support, with both Joe Biden and Trump tied at 43 percent apiece in a hypothetical rematch, according to the poll. However, as The New York Times also reported, “Biden’s support among Democrats is a mile wide and an inch deep,” as it cited the poll’s findings that 30 percent of voters said they planned to vote for the sitting president, but still hoped the Democrats would nominate someone else.
Moreover, just 20 percent of the same respondents said they would be “enthusiastic” if Biden were the party’s 2024 presidential nominee, while another 51 percent said they would be satisfied but not enthusiastic.
Almost surprisingly, 26 percent even expressed enthusiasm for the notion of Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democrat’s nominee in 2024. That comes even as Harris has remained unpopular with most Americans.
Joe Biden on the Rise?
It wasn’t all bad news, however, for President Biden, according to the paper of record.
“Mr. Biden appears to have escaped the political danger zone he resided in last year when nearly two-thirds of his party wanted a different nominee. Now, Democrats have broadly accepted him as their standard-bearer, even if half would prefer someone else,” The New York Times noted.
No Democratic Challengers?
Currently, President Biden maintains about 64 percent support among Democrats, which is seen as “soft support” for an incumbent president. Yet, just 13 percent indicated they’d support Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., while only 10 percent said they’d back Marianne Williamson.
The newspaper also noted that the “lack of fervor” for Biden could help explain the relatively weak showing he has had with small donors in a quarterly fund-raising report this campaign released just two weeks ago.
Biden Leads With Women, Not So Much With Latino Voters
The New York Times/Siena College poll also found that Biden is leading Trump among the same groups that helped solidify his victory in 2020 – namely women, suburban voters, college-educated white voters, and Black voters. However, the poll also showed early signs of potential vulnerability with Hispanic voters, who have shifted toward Republicans in recent elections.
The issue could be turnout – and while Latinos are shifting their support to the GOP, enough are still voting for the Democrats that it will be a matter of turnout. That helped the Democrats maintain the Senate majority in the 2022 midterms.
Anything Can Happen…
Even as Biden and Trump are in a “dead heat” at this point, we should (and can) expect a lot to happen between now and the primaries – let alone Election Day. Trump is facing several indictments, and while he currently has a commanding lead over the rest of the GOP field, his legal woes may be too much to overcome – even as it has served to give his poll numbers a bounce!
Likewise, the investigations into President Biden’s son Hunter aren’t likely to go away anytime soon.
Age could be a deciding factor for both men. President Joe Biden will be 82 by Election Day, while former President Donald Trump is just four years younger. The age of the candidates remains an issue for many Americans.
As the late, great political pundit Charles Krauthammer said when predicting the 2016 election in Fox News’ “Candidate Casino,” he often said, “I’m back on the bottle of wine, women, and song.”
At this point, that might be the safest bet of all.
Author Experience and Expertise
A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.