A new Wall Street Journal poll declared that “[S]ome 78% said Trump’s actions after the 2020 election were legitimate efforts to ensure an accurate vote, while 16% said Trump had illegally tried to block Congress from certifying an election he had lost.
That same poll, which provides a good snapshot of where the GOP’s thinking is right now, had much to say about Trump and the state of the GOP 2024 primary race.
The big takeaways: Donald Trump is clearly on top, and Ron DeSantis is in big trouble.
What the Polls Are Telling Us: Ron DeSantis in Trouble
Former President Donald Trump is surging ahead in the Republican primary race, now favored as the nominee by nearly 60 percent of GOP voters, according to the WSJ poll.
Trump’s main challenger, Ron DeSantis, has seen his support plummet by half as he faces mounting challenges.
Despite facing a total of 91 felony indictments, the former president seems unstoppable, forcing his rivals to reconsider their strategies in the face of his political juggernaut.
Candidates who had previously refrained from criticizing Trump to avoid alienating the Republican base are reportedly gearing up to challenge him.
These challengers are also expected to intensify their campaigns in early-voting states like New Hampshire and Iowa in a bid to slow down Trump’s momentum.
Legal Challenges Loom
There is growing speculation that Trump’s candidacy could face a legal challenge under the US 14th Amendment, disqualifying individuals who have “engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the United States” from seeking public office.
The latest Wall Street Journal poll reveals that Trump now enjoys support from 59% of Republican primary voters, marking an 11% increase since April. This surge underscores the mounting desperation among Trump’s opponents.
The poll also reveals that a significant majority of GOP voters believe the four criminal cases against Trump lack merit, with nearly half stating that these cases have actually boosted their support for him.
In fact, 78% of voters surveyed believe Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election were legitimate attempts to ensure an accurate vote.
Trump’s lead over Ron DeSantis has nearly doubled, now standing at 46%.
However, this surge in Trump’s popularity coincides with a sharp decline in support for DeSantis, whose approval rating has dropped from 24% in April to just 13%, putting him merely five points ahead of Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor.
Ron DeSantis vs. Ramaswamy
Notably, Vivek Ramaswamy, a tech tycoon and political newcomer, is emerging as a significant contender, posing a threat to DeSantis’s status as the only viable alternative to Trump.
In response, DeSantis’s campaign is reportedly working to undermine Ramaswamy’s momentum, launching efforts to scrutinize his past for potentially damaging information.
Surprisingly, Ramaswamy, previously a staunch supporter of Trump among the Republican hopefuls, appeared to distance himself from the former president’s actions on January 6, 2022, while maintaining his opposition to the indictments against Trump.
The last hope for Trump’s rivals appears to rest in early-voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire, where polls suggest that a more significant percentage of voters are open to considering alternatives to Trump. In Iowa, 72% of caucus-goers support other candidates or are at least willing to consider doing so, despite Trump’s lead with 42% support.
Analysts believe this is the best chance for Trump’s opponents to gain ground, as Trump’s support in these states is around 10% lower than his national numbers.
However, the path to victory remains uncertain, and some Trump rivals are hoping to outpace him by engaging in extensive grassroots campaigning and community outreach. The alternative route to challenging Trump’s candidacy is through the courts, as legal experts William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen have suggested that Trump may be disqualified from running under the 14th Amendment.
Legal challenges have already been filed, and several secretaries of state are privately discussing the implications of this clause.
As the Republican primary race unfolds, the battle to derail Trump’s candidacy intensifies, with Trump’s rivals seeking any possible advantage to halt his political resurgence.
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.
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