America Is Not Enthusiastic About A Biden-Trump Rematch – Americans are not enthralled by the possibility of an electoral rematch between President Joe Biden and predecessor Donald Trump, according to a new Monmouth University Poll.
Biden’s support has dipped over the past two months largely due to a decline in support from Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters, some of whom have flocked to Trump. However, the race between both candidates remains extremely close, with the Republican edging his rival by one point among probable and definite supporters (43-42%).
Concerns over age remain prevalent for the 80-year-old incumbent, with three-quarters of voters (76%) saying he is too old to serve another term as president (including 56% of Democrats). Former president Trump, on the other hand, is perceived as being too old by less than half of respondents (48%). The proportion who strongly agree with the sentiment over age was more than double for Biden (55%) among all voters than Trump (26%).
“These two men were born only three and a half years apart, but public perceptions of their age are wildly different. This is certainly one of the reasons, but probably not the only reason, why there is little voter enthusiasm for seeing a rematch of 2020 except among partisan loyalists,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Enthusiasm Falls For Both Candidates, But Particularly Biden
Just 37% of voters have at least some excitement about the possibility of Trump being the GOP nominee in a highly partisan split. 78% of Republicans are at least enthusiastic, with 47% stating they are “very enthusiastic” about the Republican frontrunner’s third successive presidential campaign.
These numbers fall for Biden, with only 32% of all voters enthusiastic about his re-election bid, with less than seven in ten Democrats showing optimism and just 29% feeling “very enthusiastic.” Among independents, the President fares even worse, as 35% are enthusiastic for the likely Republican nominee compared to just 19% for Biden.
Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters in particular have switched their support from Biden to Trump. In the last Monmouth poll from July, 63% of this group expressed at least probable support for the former, a number which has dropped to 47% in the two months since. Trump has seen a notable uptick within this group from 23% to 33%.
The pair’s legal dramas are also reflected in the poll. 46% of respondents believe Trump has committed a crime, compared to 29% who say he’s done nothing wrong. One-fifth (22%) believe the former president had done something wrong, but not committed a crime by doing so. In contrast, 34% say the President should be impeached, 43% say he shouldn’t, with 16% saying he may have violated his office but should not be impeached.
The impeachment inquiry into Biden is being conducted within the House of Representatives, although only 15% of the electorate express a lot of trust in a fair investigation. A third (33%) have a little bit of trust, while half (50%) has no trust at all.
Nevertheless, first son Hunter faces the more prominent Biden legal battle than his father among voters, with 93% saying they’ve heard of his recent troubles compared to 79% who said the same about the President. Just over a quarter (27%) say Hunter’s ongoing woes may impact their vote; however, most of those are Republicans, who are unlikely to support the Democrat anyway. Biden supporters (2%) and Democrats opposed to the President (2%) make up the remainder.
“The actual impact of the Hunter Biden story may be small in statistical terms, but one or two percentage points could be crucial in competitive states,” said Murray.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 19 to 24, 2023 with 814 adults in the United States. The question results in this release are based on 737 registered voters and have a margin of error +/- 4.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist based in Canada. He has written for the Western Standard, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo, and has covered notable events including the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee.
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