Donald Trump Needs This Demographic To Win The Election – In any election in the United States, there’s often talk of securing the votes of minority voters.
These include, but are not limited to, Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters – demographics who do not usually vote in high numbers, but can influence an election. 2020 is a prime example, with a record turnout nationwide, but notable upticks in minority voters pathing the way for a Biden victory.
The natural conclusion is that in next year’s electoral rematch, Donald Trump needs to gain the minority vote to swing the odds in his favor.
Assuming a status quo among white voters, the theory is that a campaign on minorities should swing lead to a second Trump administration.
In reality, that’s not the case.
White America: Two Words That Can Make Donald Trump President
Trump has secured the support from a plurality of White voters in both of his election campaigns so far. However, his backing from this demographic fell in 2020, particularly among White men from +30 points to +17. Interestingly, the then-President saw an increase from +2 to +7.
Overall, Trump’s support among White voters fell by two points – a small swing, yet one which can easily decide a presidential election. Five states, namely Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina were decided by a margin of less than 2% in 2020. Trump only won North Carolina; had he won the others, he would have been re-elected.
There are a number of factors which are already working in the former president’s favor. For a start, immigration remains a pressing issue, and President Biden has already conceded to building more of Trump’s signature wall amid an influx of migrants from the humanitarian crises in South America.
It’s a strategy Trump can implement successfully. After all, it’s his wall, and the fact that Biden has reversed on a promise to not extend it suggests he is the best candidate on that issue.
There’s also the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine. As a staunch ally of the former, Americans are strongly supportive of Israel, and footage of altercations at pro-Palestinian protests are likely to land the blame on Biden.
Of the two likely candidates, Trump also has the better track record on dealing with Islamist militants. During his time in office, the Republican ordered the assassination of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October 2019. Just months later, a drone strike killed Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian General renowned for his hostility to the United States. Biden, on the other hand, oversaw the fall of Kabul within months of assuming the presidency, and his approval ratings haven’t recovered since.
The former president has an opportunity to capitalize on the issues which affect White voters the most. That said, he has to earn those votes – they won’t be given to him on a plate – and that could prove troublesome with his court appearances becoming increasingly frequent with a year to go until the election.
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist based in Canada. He has written for the Western Standard, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo, and has covered notable events including the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee.
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