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Russia’s Artillery Advantage in the Ukraine War Is Slipping Away

2S19 Msta S Artillery of the Ukrainian Army. Image Credit: Creative Commons/Ukraine Military.
2S19 Msta S of the Ukrainian Army. Artillery used in Ukraine War.

Key Points and Summary: Russia’s once-dominant artillery force is under severe pressure as Ukraine leverages advanced counter-battery tactics and drone warfare to neutralize the Kremlin’s firepower advantage.

-With artillery fire reportedly halved and multiple rocket launchers disappearing from the front lines, Russia’s reliance on outdated Soviet stockpiles and even North Korean artillery suggests dwindling reserves.

-Ukraine’s innovative use of FPV drones to disable Russian guns is proving highly effective, making massed artillery barrages increasingly unsustainable.

-This shift could significantly impact Russia’s war strategy, raising questions about the future of artillery in modern warfare and potentially signaling a turning point in the conflict.

End of an Era: Has Ukraine Turned the Tide Against Russian Artillery?

Russia relies on an advantage in artillery to compensate for shortcomings in infantry and armor. Three years into the war with Ukraine, have Ukrainian counter-battery tactics finally eaten away that advantage?

Stalin called artillery the ‘God of War.’ During WWII, his Red Army developed its signature approach of massed guns, standing practically hub-to-hub and pummeling their opponents with sheer firepower. Truck-mounted multiple rocket launchers nicknamed ‘Stalin’s Organs” helped throw the maximum weight of explosives at the enemy. This approach did not require a trained, disciplined force like maneuver warfare. All that counted was the Soviet Union’s industrial capacity to build guns and ammunition. 

The same approach has featured in much of the advance in Ukraine. One analyst summarized Russian tactics as “Huge and continuous pounding of the targets by long range artillery and missiles … [followed by] slow and brutal advance over the ruins.”

In particular, Russian forces have avoided protracted, bloody fights in urban areas by demolishing contested areas block by block with concentrations of artillery. These leave remains that look like the bombed-out cityscapes of 1945.

Russia’s artillery advantage has been given variously, such as five-to-one, seven-to-one, and occasionally ten-to-one, in terms of the number of shells fired each day. The figure varies mainly with the severity of Ukraine’s shell shortage at different times. Even with adequate ammunition, though, in 2023, Ukraine boasted around 1,600 artillery pieces when Russia was fielding in excess of 5,000, giving Russia a 3:1 advantage in their weapon of choice.

Ukraine has survived by making its overstretched artillery count. A combination of drones to spot targets and adjust fire plus locally-developed software to distribute information to commanders meant that even in 2023, Ukraine was causing more casualties with fewer rounds.

But Russia is far more capable of absorbing casualties, and its artillery has continued to cause severe damage and prevent Ukrainian forces from maneuvering.

That may be changing. In an interview with RBC-Ukraine on January 19, Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrsky stated that Russian artillery fire has nearly halved in the last few months. Meanwhile, Russian multiple rocket launchers – the modern-day version of Stalin’s organ—have practically disappeared from the front.

What is behind these changes?

Stockpiles Versus Burn Rate 

Russia came into this war with an ace up its sleeve: gigantic stockpiles of old military equipment, much of it dating back to the Soviet era. Old Russian vehicles are stored rather than scrapped. At the start of the war, Russia had some 19,000 artillery pieces in reserve in open-air yards visible on high-resolution satellite images.

Since then, analysts have devoted considerable efforts to monitoring the rate at which equipment is removed from these yards for renovation and transfer to the front line. Of course, not all of it is usable; much of the equipment is corroded beyond repair, some has been cannibalized—barrels removed to keep other guns firing—and some is obsolete with no ammunition. 

One of the most meticulous counters has been open-source analyst Highmarsed, who, in Mid-2024, estimated that Russia’s artillery stocks would probably last through most of 2025 at the observed rates of depletion. However, an acceleration of the ‘burn rate’ at which artillery was being deployed would bring that forward. 

M777 Artillery Like in Ukraine

Soldiers, with team Deadpool, B Battery, 2nd Battalion, 3rd Field Artillery Regiment, Division Artillery, 1st Armored Division, fire a M777 Howitzer, during the Two Gun Raid September 20 at Oro Grande Range Complex, N.M. 2-3 FA conducts the Two Gun Raid and table VI qualification annually. (U.S. Army Photo by Sgt. Michael Eaddy). This is similar to the artillery engaged in Ukraine.

For the last nine months or so, we have seen a remarkable increase in Russian artillery losses, as far as they can be assessed. While the losses of tanks and infantry vehicles generally take place at the front line, and visual confirmation is standard, artillery kills are much more difficult to verify. Ukrainian official figures for Russian losses appear inflated but follow the same trend as observed losses. 

Comparing the total Ukrainian claims for artillery losses from June 2024 to the losses from then to January 2025, the amount of artillery killed per month has doubled. At the same time, the claims for Russian tanks destroyed per month have slightly reduced, indicating that something has changed when it comes to taking out artillery in particular.

Spiking the Artillery Guns in 2025 

While Russia’s artillery force was initially largely self-propelled, the current arsenal consists mainly of towed guns. While crews are vulnerable, a towed weapon is more challenging to destroy than a self-propelled gun. A hit on a self-propelled gun can ignite stored ammunition or fuel, resulting in total destruction, but a towed gun is a robust piece of metal that is hard to damage with blast and shrapnel.

This physical toughness meant that in previous eras, the only way to put artillery out of action was to ‘spike the guns’: overrun the battery with infantry or cavalry and hammer a spike into the touchhole of each piece so it could not be used.  

Videos from Ukraine show a modern version of this tactic using small drones. The imagery, from Ukraine’s elite 414th Marine Strike UAV Regiment—better known as ‘Birds of Magyar’—is captured from FPV drones. Rather than the usual high-speed attack run, these approach guns at a walking pace from side-on and use a shaped-charge warhead to punch a hole in the barrel. 

M777 Howitzers. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

U.S. Marines with Golf Battery, 2d Battalion, 11th Marines, currently attached to the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, and Australian Defence Forces with 109th Battery, 4th Regiment, fire an M777 155 mm Howitzer during Exercise Talisman Sabre 21 on Shoalwater Bay Training Area, Queensland, Australia, July 17, 2021. Australian and U.S. Forces combine biennually for Talisman Sabre, a month-long multi-domain exercise that strengthens allied and partner capabilities to respond to the full range of Indo-Pacific security concerts. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Lance Cpl. Ujian Gosun)

Barrels can easily be swapped out, but Russia has a chronic shortage of artillery barrels—have all the cannibalization of stored weapons—so weapons damaged in this way are effectively out of action permanently.  Such attacks, presumably carried out after previous drone strikes have dispersed gun crews, appear to be an efficient way of taking out artillery. 

The videos show follow-up FPVs inspecting the damage from a few feet away and repeating strikes if necessary. Ukraine produced over a million FPVs last year, so several are available for each target. They can reach targets 12 miles away or more. Interestingly, one strike leaves a rectangular hole rather than the usual puncture, suggesting that custom-made warheads for disabling artillery are starting to be deployed. 

Pattern of Destruction 

Birds of Magyar released a video showing the destruction of 22 Russian howitzers in one week alone. That may have been an exceptional week for them, but with thousands of FPV operators at work along the length of the front, all Russian artillery is at risk. Any gun that fires will be observed by the ubiquitous ISR drones or counter-battery radar; Ukraine’s battlespace awareness systems can pass the data to drone crews, and the FPVs will follow. 

Interestingly, in the past month or so, claimed Russian artillery losses have started to fluctuate wildly day by day. On January 23, there were 63 reported losses. On January 17th, there were just 4, down from 40 the previous day. On January 3rd, it was three, but the next day, the number went up to 23. 

These may represent delays in reporting or other factors. It also indicates that Russia is starting to conserve its artillery and is using it less freely. This does not mean they are ‘running out’ of guns, but the supply is now limited. As losses mount, expect the rates of ammunition usage and the kill count to vary significantly from day to day and week to week in a jagged but inevitable downward path. 

2S19 Msta Artillery

2S19 Msta Artillery in Ukraine War. Image Credit: Russia Military.

The fact that Russia recently started fielding non-standard North Korean 170mm self-propelled guns, which must cause significant headaches with support and logistics, strongly indicates how badly they need more artillery. 

The Engine Stutters

Artillery is a critical capability for the Russian way of war. For both offensive and defensive operations, artillery is the central support pillar. If infantry morale is poor or troops are inadequately trained, if armored formations are not skilled enough to maneuver in a coordinated fashion, massed firepower can reduce the level of opposition to a manageable level.

If Ukraine can neutralize Russian artillery, there will be significant implications. Russia’s slow grinding advances will become even more expensive and impractical. The steady attrition of Ukrainian forces will drop off. Ukraine will have greater latitude in conducting its offensive maneuver operations without being halted by massed fires.

Russia still has thousands of artillery pieces. However, the rate at which they disappear may leave serious gaps in the ranks in the coming months. This would be a disaster for Putin. His forces can only keep going for so long with borrowed North Korean guns, and there is no way to reverse an accelerating decline as more drones hunt less artillery.

In the longer term, while heavily outgunned, Ukraine’s success at counter-battery operations has profound implications for future wars. Russia is the only nation on earth that has, or rather had, such artillery stockpiles. Nobody else, including the U.S., could sustain the sort of losses that Russia has taken. The weapons that target artillery will likely become far more capable as the lessons learned in Ukraine are absorbed. 

If the end is near for Russian artillery, is it near for all artillery, and is the god of war about to be deposed?

About the Author: David Hambling 

David Hambling is a London-based journalist, author and consultant specializing in defense technology with over 20 years’ experience. He writes for Aviation Week, Forbes, The Economist, New Scientist, Popular Mechanics, WIRED and others. His books include “Weapons Grade: How Modern Warfare Gave Birth to Our High-tech World” (2005) and “Swarm Troopers: How small drones will conquer the world” (2015). He has been closely watching the continued evolution of small military drones. Follow him X: @David_Hambling.

Written By

David Hambling is a London-based journalist, author and consultant specializing in defense technology with over 20 years of experience. He writes for Aviation Week, Forbes, The Economist, New Scientist, Popular Mechanics, WIRED and others. His books include “Weapons Grade: How Modern Warfare Gave Birth to Our High-tech World” (2005) and “Swarm Troopers: How small drones will conquer the world” (2015). He has been closely watching the continued evolution of small military drones. Follow him @David_Hambling. 

3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. megiddo

    January 24, 2025 at 10:42 am

    Artillery isn’t the magic bullet in the current ukraine conflict, neither are hazel trees nor ATACMS.

    So, What is the magic bullet Then.

    The answer is glide bombs.

    Glide bombs are the real magic bullet in the fighting.

    However, there isn’t an infinite supply of them.

    Once the supply runs out, russia must resort to the use of tactical nukes.

    Tactical nukes are the ULTIMATE magic bullet.

  2. Jim

    January 24, 2025 at 12:43 pm

    Something is going on.

    For both sides, drones are proving highly effective, perhaps more effective than artillery, in certain situations and aspects.

    Also, as noted by the author, it’s easier to produce large numbers of drones.

    It’s probably easier to “get into position” to launch drones… artillery accuracy drops as distance increases… not so with drones… if you stay in control via radio or, now, fiber optic cable… then the accuracy is quite high.

    Drones have an advantage in terms of ‘hits per drone’ vs. ‘hits per artillery shell.’

    Drones are keeping Kiev in the war… but still losing territory, men, and equipment at a slow, but steady rate.

    How long can it go on?

    Only Trump knows what he’s willing to do to achieve peace.

    Maybe, he doesn’t know, yet. He better decide sooner, rather, than later… before he ends up owning the war politically. He shouldn’t.

    It’s Biden’s war.

    Delays only serve to punish the Ukrainian People more than they already have been.

  3. Z3R0

    January 25, 2025 at 7:34 am

    NATO can easily help Ukraine overcome this and most every other material and technological deficit.

    A levee en masse in Ukraine will address Ukraine’s manpower deficit. Though Russia has more population, its people know they are not fighting for their survival, so politically Putin will not be able to do the same.

    This combination will end this war and sustain a durable peace.

    EU membership will help to ensure Ukraine’s future economic viability.

    All the rest is negotiable (i.e., Crimea and the Donbas, the Kaliningrad enclave, NATO, the exact terms of security guarantees, strategic offensive weapons, etc.)

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