Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

Smart Bombs: Military, Defense and National Security

The Sneaky Reasons China Wants to Give J-10 Fighter for Free to Brazil

J-10 Fighter
J-10 Fighter. Image: Creative Commons.

Key Points and Summary: China’s offer to Brazil of Chengdu J-10CE fighters, potentially with attractive financing, aims to gain access to Brazil’s Alcântara Space Launch Centre.

-While the J-10CE is already export-marketed worldwide, Beijing struggles to clinch deals outside its traditional partners. China’s “belt-and-road” financing terms, concerns over technology integrity, and closed economic policies make its arms less appealing to advanced militaries.

-In Brazil’s case, the U.S. would likely react negatively to a PLA technology foothold in South America. Moreover, Embraer’s deep ties with Western firms and Brazil’s ongoing Gripen program reduce the chance of any J-10 acceptance, making a Sino-Brazil defense tie-up improbable.

China’s J-10CE Pitch to Brazil: Hidden Agendas and Space Ambitions

Several military news outlets have reported an offer to Brazil by the People’s Republic of China (PRC)  for the Chengdu J-10CE fighter aircraft, an export version of the J-10C model operated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).  

Beijing is making this offer under very generous financial terms, with the prime motivation of gaining access to the Centro de Lançamento de Alcântara, (Alcântara Space Launch Centre or CEA) in Maranhão. 

The proposed delivery of J-10CE to the Força Aérea Brasileira (Brazilian Air Force or FAB) is not an unusual step.  

Both this aircraft and another lower-priced and older model Chengdu fighter, the JF-17, have been aggressively marketed to numerous nations, primarily in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia.

The latter aircraft was developed and produced jointly with the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) in Kamra and has been sold to the Pakistan Air Force and the armed forces of Nigeria, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Nigeria, and Myanmar.  

So far, however, only Pakistan has graduated up to the more sophisticated J-10 and with no other takers elsewhere.

Why China’s Defence Export Initiatives Largely Fail

Through its Belt and Road initiative, Beijing has attempted to employ many incentives for countries to become more active partners.  

However, this practice has acquired a decidedly negative reputation

Phrases like “debt trap diplomacy” and “predatory lending” have been used to describe how China is using the lure of “buy now – pay later” infrastructure and other development projects on unsuspectint nations.

Weapons exports are often an effective tool of foreign policy. But China has largely failed to break out of a relatively limited “core market” of small and largely underdeveloped nations, with 63.4 percent of its weapon sales being made with Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.

Chinese weapons are unattractive due to Beijing’s debt trap strategy and the conduct of its foreign policy, which is seen as being even more predatory than its lending practices. Chinese military bullying of the Philippine armed forces is a prime example.

Chengdu J-10 Fighter Jet. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Chengdu J-10 Fighter Jet. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Another factor is that Beijing also fails in the international commerce sphere. 

As long-time defense analyst Richard Aboulafia pointed out in 2021:

“Fighter sales often involve a trade relationship, since they tend to include commercial offsets—or economic sweeteners such as market access or technology transfer that are designed to mitigate some of the expense of a weapons package.  But China’s relatively closed economic system means that potential customers with export-oriented economies have little to gain, since China wants to be a globally dominant export manufacturer and certainly doesn’t want to increase its intake of imported manufactured goods.”

China’s Motivation for ‘Giving Away’ J-10s to Brazil

For year, China has sought access to Brazil’s CEA, which has enormous strategic importance for any nation.  

The site is closer to the Equator than any other similar facility worldwide, a major advantage in the satellite launch business, particularly for geosynchronous orbit payloads.  

Beijing saw this as a chance to fulfill its space business objectives in South America – the real motivation for offering the FAB ten of the J-10CE models gratis.

The proposal was “another act by the Chinese of attempted opportunism,” said a Brazilian defence analyst who has tracked the initiatives by the PRC to gain access in this market.

“Beijing saw an ‘opening’ in the coming capability gap created by the impending retirement of the older F-5M and AMX-1 models by the FAB and the delays in deliveries of the JAS-39E/F Gripen being licence-produced by Embraer at Gavião Pexioto in São Paulo state that are slated to replace them,” he explained.

Chinese J-10 fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Chinese J-10 fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Brazilian regulations also require the FAB to maintain two or three different models of combat aircraft in service – a hedge against the entire fighter fleet being grounded by potential supply disruptions or sanctions.  

This legal technicality was also part of the Chinese rationale for offering its aircraft to Brasilia.

The long-standing requirement for maintaining a diversified supplier base stretches back to the 1970s when the country broke off its military aid relationship with the US over human rights issues.  

The FAB also purchased Mirage fighter aircraft from Dassault in France to supplant its fleet of US-supplied F-5 models.  

These F-5 aircraft were later modernized not by the US OEM but by integration of on-board systems and weapons instead acquired from Israel – to maintain the reduced dependence on the US.

J-10CE For Brazil: Almost Nothing to Gain and Much to Lose

Washington, however, does not want a PLA beachhead established in South America through one of the continent’s nations acquiring a major Chinese weapon system.  

Witness the September 2023 scramble to prevent Argentina from acquiring Chengdu’s other fighter, the JF-17, and devising a quick maneuver to provide Buenos Aires with used F-16s as a substitute.

With Elon Musk playing such a decisive role in the incoming Trump Administration, acquiring a Chinese-made aircraft would damage relations with the US in the lucrative space business. 

It could have caused external problems with the constellation of partners on the Brazilian Gripen program due to concerns about compromised technologies.  

The list of companies who support the FAB JAS-39E/F production is a “who’s who” of the European defense industry, to say nothing of the US firm GE, who makes the F414 engine that powers the aircraft.

JAS 39 Gripen. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

JAS 39 Gripen. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Embraer’s growing business of exporting its military models, the EMB-314 Super Tucano close-air-support aircraft, and the KC-390 cargo lifter and aerial refueling aircraft could also be negatively impacted.  

Most nations would be uncomfortable with a small army of Chinese technicians and military personnel being in such close proximity to any Brazilian airbases or industrial sites.

“The Chinese are constantly probing to make a sale of one of their fighters to a country with a modern military and aerospace industrial capacity like that of Embraer,” said a former NATO-member nation intelligence officer with long experience in the PRC.  “But with all Embraer have invested in relationships with countries that shy away from involvement with anything Chinese, it is not likely to happen in Brazil.”

About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson 

Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw and has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defence technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.

Written By

Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is now an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw and has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defence technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided at one time or another in Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Advertisement