Article Summary: Fresh off its F-16 deliveries, Ukraine could push for the next big prize—the F-35. Ukrainian pilots have proven their skill with the Fighting Falcon, even shooting down Russian cruise missiles with precision. But is the Lightning II a realistic option?
Key Point #1- While Romania has announced its F-35 purchase, concerns over escalating tensions with Russia, pilot training requirements, and the risk of technology falling into enemy hands make an F-35 deal unlikely in the near term.
Key Point #2 – Despite Kyiv’s ambitions, Washington is unlikely to greenlight the transfer soon. Still, with Ukraine’s persistent requests, could F-35s eventually make their way to Kyiv?
Could Ukraine Get the F-35? The Next Big Fighter Jet Request
Ukraine is never satisfied with the military hardware it receives from allies. When one major end item is sent, the Ukrainians immediately eye another more expensive and powerful piece of military hardware. Such is the case with the F-16 Fighting Falcon and the F-35 Lightning II. Kyiv reportedly has a yearning for the F-35 after receiving the F-16 and deploying it in numbers.
You can’t blame Volodymyr Zelensky. His country is fighting an existential war with Russia, and he needs all the help he can get. The Ukrainians believe they have come up with a successful export model for fighter jets.
Formula for Fighter Jet Success
First, get the allies to announce the transfer of F-16s or France’s Dassault Mirage 2000-5s. Then immediately send pilots and ground crews to the United States or France for training. While the pilots and maintainers learn the ins and outs, the Ukrainian Air Force waits for the deal to wind its way through the bureaucracy and export process.
When the aviators and their teammates are ready, the airplanes come and hit the skies.
If Romania Can Have F-35s, Why Not the Ukrainians Too?
This is what the Ukrainians want to do with the F-35. After all, many European nations are Lightning II customers, why can’t Ukraine have the stealth fighter too?
Romania announced an F-35 purchase to place the Lightning II on Russia’s doorstep. If the Ukrainians acquired the F-35, this would of course lead Vladimir Putin to threaten an escalation of the war, and that eventuality could keep the Americans from sending F-35s to Ukraine. But Zelensky has nothing to lose and might as well ask for one of the best stealth jets in the world.
Ukraine Wants the F-35 Fighter
Meanwhile, Ukrainian pilots are taking to the F-16 nicely. One Fighting Falcon aviator shot down six Russian cruise missiles in a single mission while using only four air-to-air munitions from his F-16.
This has led Ukrainian military brass to claim its pilots could easily fly F-35s. Colonel Yuriy Ihnat, a member of the Ukrainian Air Force, is one officer who thinks that Ukraine should also receive the Lightning II.
“He specifically mentioned the achievements of Ukrainian aviators … Ihnat also referred to the dream of Ukrainian pilots to transition to the F-35, emphasizing how such fighter jets could increase Ukraine’s deterrence capabilities, particularly in the context of the war with Russia,” according to BulgarianMilitary.com.
Not So Fast – the F-35 Is Too Valuable
However, the U.S. military is careful with the F-35.
The Americans don’t want it to get in the hands of the Russians due to sensitive technology on board. The possibility of it getting shot down would be a disaster.
Moreover, it takes a specialized contract and an extensive level of permitting to join the F-35 club.
An F-35A Lightning II pilot turns his aircraft along the yellow taxi line on the 33rd Fighter Wing flightline at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla. (U.S. Air Force photo by Samuel King Jr./Released)
This won’t be the last time that Ukraine calls for the F-35. They want the best and receiving stealth fifth-generation fighters would be an excellent development in the war. This would enable more than just homeland defense and air policing to shoot down enemy missiles.
The F-35 could fly ground strike missions and take out Russian air defense systems so the fourth-generation F-16s and Mirage 2000-5s could follow on and destroy command and control facilities and air base runways to hobble the Russian air force. Drones are currently doing that job, but the Russians can easily shoot these down. The Ukrainians would have better luck with the F-35.
Pilots May Not Be Ready for the Complex ‘Flying Computer’
The Ukrainian pilots have showed skill with the F-16, but the F-35 is a much more complex “flying computer” that requires scores of training sorties to become proficient.
It would probably take over a year for aviators from Kyiv to train successfully on the F-35 and by that time the war could be over.
F-35 Joint Strike Fighter on carrier operations.
Despite the difficulty, Zelensky wants the jewels of the crown and that means looking to the F-35 to solve all of his problems. The Ukrainians may be over-confident when it comes to evaluating their pilots. Let’s see more examples of aerial combat success first, especially dogfighting against an enemy fighter and not just destroying missiles.
Until then, the Americans may say that Ukraine is not ready for prime time and the F-35 would be out of reach for Kyiv.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
